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A dynamic demand analysis of the United States air-passenger service

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  • Chi, Junwook
  • Baek, Jungho

Abstract

This study examines the short- and long-run effects of various determinants on the demand for US air passenger-services using the Johansen cointegration analysis and a vector error-correction (VEC) model. Results show that, in the long-run, airfare, disposable income and NASDAQ have significant effects on US air travel demand. The combined short-run dynamic effects of disposable income, NASDAQ, population and airfare jointly explain changes in air passenger-miles. Finally, we find that the 9/11 terrorist attacks drop air passenger demand by 5% during 2001:Q3–2002:Q2, which in turn pushes down the seat capacity by 4%. However, it has little impact on airfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Chi, Junwook & Baek, Jungho, 2012. "A dynamic demand analysis of the United States air-passenger service," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 755-761.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transe:v:48:y:2012:i:4:p:755-761
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tre.2011.12.005
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    Cited by:

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    2. Dobruszkes, Frédéric & Vandermotten, Christian, 2022. "Do scale and the type of markets matter? Revisiting the determinants of passenger air services worldwide," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    3. Cheung, Tommy King-Yin & Wong, Wai-hung & Zhang, Anming & Wu, Yangming, 2020. "Spatial panel model for examining airport relationships within multi-airport regions," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 148-163.
    4. Park, Ju D. & Koo, Won W., 2014. "The Magnitudes of Economic and Non-Economic Factors on the Demand for U.S. Domestic Air Travel," Journal of the Transportation Research Forum, Transportation Research Forum, vol. 53(3).
    5. Gallet, Craig A. & Doucouliagos, Hristos, 2014. "The income elasticity of air travel: A meta-analysis," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 141-155.
    6. Zhang, Fangni & Graham, Daniel J. & Wong, Mark Siu Chun, 2018. "Quantifying the substitutability and complementarity between high-speed rail and air transport," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 191-215.
    7. Hofer, Christian & Kali, Raja & Mendez, Fabio, 2018. "Socio-economic mobility and air passenger demand in the U.S," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 85-94.
    8. Ignacio Escañuela Romana & Mercedes Torres-Jiménez & Mariano Carbonero-Ruz, 2023. "Elasticities of Passenger Transport Demand on US Intercity Routes: Impact on Public Policies for Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-27, September.
    9. Frédéric Dobruszkes & Christian Vandermotten, 2022. "Do scale and the type of markets matter? Revisiting the determinants of passenger air services worldwide," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/336304, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    10. Lo, Winnie Wai Ling & Wan, Yulai & Zhang, Anming, 2015. "Empirical estimation of price and income elasticities of air cargo demand: The case of Hong Kong," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 309-324.
    11. Wang, Yue & Wong, Collin Wai Hung & Cheung, Tommy King-Yin & Wu, Edmund Yangming, 2021. "How influential factors affect aviation networks: A Bayesian network analysis," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).

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