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Quantile hedge ratio for forward freight market

Author

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  • Gu, Yimiao
  • Chen, Zhenxi
  • Lien, Donald
  • Luo, Meifeng

Abstract

Forward Freight Agreement (FFA) is used by shipping market players for hedging. We evaluate the hedging performance of the FFAs by comparing the conventional approach of minimum variance with the quantile regression. The quantile hedge ratios tend to be different from the conventional one, indicating the possibility of over- or under-hedge. Including the error correction term reduces the discrepancy between the quantile hedge ratios and the conventional one. The FFA of one-month horizon is more informative to the physical market than other FFAs of longer horizons. Overall, the Panamax sector has a better hedging performance than the Capesize one and the quantile hedge should be preferred for the Capesize sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Gu, Yimiao & Chen, Zhenxi & Lien, Donald & Luo, Meifeng, 2020. "Quantile hedge ratio for forward freight market," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transe:v:138:y:2020:i:c:s1366554519310099
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tre.2020.101931
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Sel, Burakhan & Minner, Stefan, 2022. "A hedging policy for seaborne forward freight markets based on probabilistic forecasts," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    3. Yuting Gong & Xueqin Wang & Mo Zhu & Ying‐En Ge & Wenming Shi, 2023. "Maximum utility portfolio construction in the forward freight agreement markets: Evidence from a multivariate skewed t copula," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(1), pages 69-89, January.
    4. Huilian Huang & Tao Xiong, 2023. "A good hedge or safe haven? The hedging ability of China's commodity futures market under extreme market conditions," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(7), pages 968-1035, July.
    5. Chang, Shuhua & Li, Jiajing & Sethi, Suresh P. & Wang, Xinyu, 2024. "Risk hedging for VaR-constrained newsvendors," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    6. Yimiao Gu & Zhenxi Chen & Qingyang Gu, 2022. "Determinants and international influences of the Chinese freight market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(5), pages 2601-2618, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Quantile regression; Baltic Capesize Index; Baltic Panamax Index; Hedging effectiveness; Shipping finance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • R40 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - General

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