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Analysis of optimal BOT highway capacity and economic toll adjustment provisions under traffic demand uncertainty

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  • Lu, Zhaoyang
  • Meng, Qiang

Abstract

For planning a build-operate-transfer (BOT) highway, a rigid contract between a government and private firms with fixed capacity and economic toll adjustment (ETA) provisions to traffic demand variations is practically adopted to cope with the risk caused by uncertain traffic demand. This study develops a two-stage stochastic programming model to determine its optimal highway capacity and ETA strategy, and deeply analyze some insightful properties of this type of contract. Finally, it is compared with two other “very rigid” single-stage BOT contracts with the fixed toll and capacity provisions.

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  • Lu, Zhaoyang & Meng, Qiang, 2017. "Analysis of optimal BOT highway capacity and economic toll adjustment provisions under traffic demand uncertainty," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 17-37.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transe:v:100:y:2017:i:c:p:17-37
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tre.2017.01.007
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    Cited by:

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    3. Fu, Xinying & van den Berg, Vincent A.C. & Verhoef, Erik T., 2018. "Private road networks with uncertain demand," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 57-68.
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    6. Zhang, Yiwen & Feng, Zhuo & Zhang, Shuibo & Song, Jinbo, 2018. "The effects of service level on BOT transport project contract," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 184-206.
    7. Fu, Xinying & van den Berg, Vincent A.C. & Verhoef, Erik T., 2018. "Private road supply in networks with heterogeneous users," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 430-443.
    8. Shi, Shasha & An, Qingxian & Chen, Ke, 2020. "Optimal choice of capacity, toll, and subsidy for build-operate-transfer roads with a paid minimum traffic guarantee," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 228-254.
    9. Shi, Shasha & Tuo, Yuhui & Pan, Meixu & Yin, Yafeng & Chen, Yue & Zhou, Xiongwei & Chen, Ke, 2024. "Signaling contracts design for Build–Operate–Transfer roads under asymmetric traffic demand information," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    10. Lu, Zhaoyang & Li, Yanfeng & Zuo, Dajie, 2024. "Period-dependent pricing methods of multi-type vehicles for BOT highway projects with pavement rehabilitation effects," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 84-94.
    11. Hoang-Tung, Nguyen & Viet Hung, Do & Kato, Hironori & Binh, Phan Le, 2021. "Modeling ceiling price for build-operate-transfer road projects in developing countries," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
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    13. Andrejs Čirjevskis, 2021. "Value Maximizing Decisions in the Real Estate Market: Real Options Valuation Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-19, June.
    14. Liu, Peng & Liu, Jielun & Ong, Ghim Ping & Tian, Qiong, 2020. "Flow pattern and optimal capacity in a bi-modal traffic corridor with heterogeneous users," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    15. Chen, Zhiyuan & Sun, Shaobo & Li, Jianbin & Zhang, Langlang & Fan, Hao, 2022. "Optimal BOT contracts in a two-road transportation network," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    16. Lu, Zhaoyang & Meng, Qiang, 2018. "Impacts of pavement deterioration and maintenance cost on Pareto-efficient contracts for highway franchising," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1-21.
    17. Shi, Shasha & Yin, Yafeng & An, Qingxian & Chen, Ke, 2021. "Optimal build-operate-transfer road contracts under information asymmetry and uncertainty," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 65-86.
    18. Wang, Fan & Xiong, Minghua & Niu, Baozhuang & Zhuo, Xiaopo, 2018. "Impact of government subsidy on BOT contract design: Price, demand, and concession period," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 137-159.
    19. Feng, Zhuo & Zhang, Yiwen & Zhang, Shuibo & Song, Jinbo, 2018. "Contracting and renegotiating with a loss-averse private firm in BOT road projects," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 40-72.
    20. van den Berg, Vincent A.C., 2024. "Self-financing roads under coarse tolling and preference heterogeneity," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    21. Lu, Zhaoyang & Meng, Qiang, 2023. "Effects of asymmetric investment cost information on revenue-compensated build-operate-transfer highway contracts," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 71-92.
    22. Meng, Qiang & Lu, Zhaoyang, 2017. "Quantitative analyses of highway franchising under build-operate-transfer scheme: Critical review and future research directions," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 105-123.
    23. Sang, Jinyan & Li, Zhi-Chun & Lam, William H.K. & Wong, S.C., 2019. "Design of build-operate-transfer contract for integrated rail and property development with uncertainty in future urban population," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 36-66.

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