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Modeling the time to the next primary and secondary incident: A semi-Markov stochastic process approach

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  • Ng, ManWo
  • Khattak, Asad
  • Talley, Wayne K.

Abstract

Incidents are notorious for their delays to road users. Secondary incidents – i.e., incidents that occur within a certain temporal and spatial distance from the first/primary incident – can further complicate clearance and add to delays. While there are numerous studies on the empirical analysis of incident data, to the best of our knowledge, an analytical model that can be used for primary and secondary incident management planning that explicitly considers both the stochastic as well as the dynamic nature of traffic does not exist. In this paper, we present such a complementary model using a semi-Markov stochastic process approach. The model allows for unprecedented generality in the modeling of stochastics during incidents on freeways. Particularly, we relax the oftentimes restrictive Poisson assumption (in the modeling of vehicle arrivals, vehicle travel times, and incidence occurrence and recovery times) and explicitly model secondary incidents. Numerical case studies are provided to illustrate the proposed model.

Suggested Citation

  • Ng, ManWo & Khattak, Asad & Talley, Wayne K., 2013. "Modeling the time to the next primary and secondary incident: A semi-Markov stochastic process approach," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 44-57.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:58:y:2013:i:c:p:44-57
    DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2013.09.013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Jiawen & Zou, Linzhi & Zhao, Jing & Wang, Xinwei, 2024. "Dynamic capacity drop propagation in incident-affected networks: Traffic state modeling with SIS-CTM," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 637(C).
    2. Wang, Zhengli & Qi, Xin & Jiang, Hai, 2018. "Estimating the spatiotemporal impact of traffic incidents: An integer programming approach consistent with the propagation of shockwaves," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 356-369.

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