IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transa/v65y2014icp23-32.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A demand trend change early warning forecast model for the city of São Paulo multi-airport system

Author

Listed:
  • Scarpel, Rodrigo Arnaldo

Abstract

The need of accurate forecasts of air passenger numbers to assist managerial decision making for both short and long terms is well recognized and a central problem on both short and long term forecasting is how to handle future trend. The aim of this paper is to develop a demand trend change early warning forecast model (EWFM) for the city of São Paulo multi-airport system (SPMARs). For SPMARs the EWFM is based on the combination of leading indicators and alarms against possible occurrence of changes on trend component of the monthly number of domestic air passengers. A topdown induction procedure is employed to identify leading indicators to provide an interpretable prediction procedure to support the development of scenarios for future demand trend. Results show that changes on such demand trend are mostly associated to changes on the economic activity and six different scenarios were built combining the identified leading indicators. The EWFM was employed to assist managerial decision making for both short and long terms in order to evaluate different alternatives to prevent congestion delay occurrences and to support infrastructure planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Scarpel, Rodrigo Arnaldo, 2014. "A demand trend change early warning forecast model for the city of São Paulo multi-airport system," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 23-32.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:65:y:2014:i:c:p:23-32
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2014.04.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856414000949
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tra.2014.04.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ataman Ozyildirim & Brian Schaitkin & Victor Zarnowitz, 2010. "Business cycles in the euro area defined with coincident economic indicators and predicted with leading economic indicators," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 6-28.
    2. Polk, Andreas & Bilotkach, Volodymyr, 2013. "The assessment of market power of hub airports," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 29-37.
    3. Olafsson, Sigurdur & Li, Xiaonan & Wu, Shuning, 2008. "Operations research and data mining," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 187(3), pages 1429-1448, June.
    4. McLay, Peter & Reynolds-Feighan, Aisling, 2006. "Competition between airport terminals: The issues facing Dublin Airport," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 181-203, February.
    5. Madas, Michael A. & Zografos, Konstantinos G., 2008. "Airport capacity vs. demand: Mismatch or mismanagement?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 203-226, January.
    6. Scarpel, Rodrigo Arnaldo, 2013. "Forecasting air passengers at São Paulo International Airport using a mixture of local experts model," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 35-39.
    7. Witt, Stephen F. & Witt, Christine A., 1995. "Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 447-475, September.
    8. Costa, Tiago F.G. & Lohmann, Gui & Oliveira, Alessandro V.M., 2010. "A model to identify airport hubs and their importance to tourism in Brazil," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 3-11.
    9. Granger, Clive W.J. & Jeon, Yongil, 2007. "Long-term forecasting and evaluation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 539-551.
    10. Grubb, Howard & Mason, Alexina, 2001. "Long lead-time forecasting of UK air passengers by Holt-Winters methods with damped trend," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 71-82.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chandra, Aitichya & Verma, Ashish & Sooraj, K.P. & Padhi, Radhakant, 2023. "Modelling and assessment of the arrival and departure process at the terminal area: A case study of Chennai international airport," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 615(C).
    2. Dantas, Tiago Mendes & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz & Varela Repolho, Hugo Miguel, 2017. "Air transportation demand forecast through Bagging Holt Winters methods," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 116-123.
    3. Li, Xiaowei & Tang, Junqing & Hu, Xiaojiao & Wang, Wei, 2020. "Assessing intercity multimodal choice behavior in a Touristy City: A factor analysis," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    4. Gunter, Ulrich & Zekan, Bozana, 2021. "Forecasting air passenger numbers with a GVAR model," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    5. Arnaldo Scarpel, Rodrigo & Pelicioni, Luciele Cristina, 2018. "A data analytics approach for anticipating congested days at the São Paulo International Airport," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-10.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arnaldo Scarpel, Rodrigo & Pelicioni, Luciele Cristina, 2018. "A data analytics approach for anticipating congested days at the São Paulo International Airport," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-10.
    2. Wang, Sen & Gao, Yi, 2021. "A literature review and citation analyses of air travel demand studies published between 2010 and 2020," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    3. Peng, Bo & Song, Haiyan & Crouch, Geoffrey I., 2014. "A meta-analysis of international tourism demand forecasting and implications for practice," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 181-193.
    4. Guo Rui & Zhong Zhaowei, 2017. "Forecasting the Air Passenger Volume in Singapore: An Evaluation of TimeSeries Models," International Journal of Technology and Engineering Studies, PROF.IR.DR.Mohid Jailani Mohd Nor, vol. 3(3), pages 117-123.
    5. Dantas, Tiago Mendes & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz & Varela Repolho, Hugo Miguel, 2017. "Air transportation demand forecast through Bagging Holt Winters methods," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 116-123.
    6. Nuno Carlos LEITÃO & Muhammad SHAHBAZ, 2012. "Migration and Tourism Demand," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(567)), pages 39-48, February.
    7. Peter Fuleky & Carl S. Bonham & Qianxue Zhao, 2013. "Estimating Demand Elasticities in Non-Stationary Panels: The Case of Hawaii's Tourism Industry," Working Papers 201314, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    8. Cavusoglu, Sabriye Sera & Macário, Rosário, 2021. "Minimum delay or maximum efficiency? Rising productivity of available capacity at airports: Review of current practice and future needs," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    9. Hsiao, Chiu-Ming & Zhang, Wei-Fang & Chiu, Chi-Chang & Huang, Jung-Chang & Huang, Yu-Ling, 2017. "The Enterprise Risk Management of Foreign Exchange Exposures: Evidence from Taiwanese Hospitality Industry," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 4(1), pages 32-48.
    10. Lohmann, Gui & Trischler, Jakob, 2017. "Licence to build, licence to charge? Market power, pricing and the financing of airport infrastructure development in Australia," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 28-37.
    11. Pacheco, Ricardo Rodrigues & Braga, Márcia Estrada & Fernandes, Elton, 2015. "Spatial concentration and connectivity of international passenger traffic at Brazilian airports," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 49-55.
    12. Suau-Sanchez, Pere & Pallares-Barbera, Montserrat & Paül, Valerià, 2011. "Incorporating annoyance in airport environmental policy: noise, societal response and community participation," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 275-284.
    13. Guizzardi, Andrea & Mazzocchi, Mario, 2010. "Tourism demand for Italy and the business cycle," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 367-377.
    14. Hurmekoski, Elias & Hetemäki, Lauri, 2013. "Studying the future of the forest sector: Review and implications for long-term outlook studies," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 17-29.
    15. Lin, Tun & De Guzman, Franklin, 2007. "Tourism for pro-poor and sustainable growth: economic analysis of tourism projects," MPRA Paper 24994, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Dixit, Aasheesh & Jakhar, Suresh Kumar, 2021. "Airport capacity management: A review and bibliometric analysis," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    17. Mark Gilchrist & Deana Lehmann Mooers & Glenn Skrubbeltrang & Francine Vachon, 2012. "Knowledge Discovery in Databases for Competitive Advantage," Journal of Management and Strategy, Journal of Management and Strategy, Sciedu Press, vol. 3(2), pages 2-15, April.
    18. Agiomirgianakis, George & Serenis, Dimitrios & Tsounis, Nicholas, 2017. "Effective timing of tourism policy: The case of Singapore," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 29-38.
    19. Niematallah Elamin & Mototsugu Fukushige, 2016. "Forecasting extreme seasonal tourism demand," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 16-23, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    20. Niamh Callaghan & Richard S. J. Tol, 2013. "UK Tourists, the Great Recession and Irish Tourism Policy," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 44(1), pages 103-116.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:65:y:2014:i:c:p:23-32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/547/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.