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The Northwest Passage: A simulation

Author

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  • Somanathan, Saran
  • Flynn, Peter
  • Szymanski, Jozef

Abstract

We model shipping through the Northwest Passage in northern Canada in order to see if reported recent ice thinning has made this route economic relative to the Panama Canal. Container shipping between Yokohama to New York and St. Johns, Newfoundland is simulated by VSLAM for the two routes using bluewater ships for the Panama Canal and identically sized Canadian Arctic Class 3 (CAC3) ships for the Northwest Passage. Each route is broken into a series of logical legs, and environmental conditions and wait times are assigned. Ice conditions are modeled from historical records. Average speed through the Northwest Passage shows little seasonal variation. Round trips per year are higher through the Northwest Passage. The required freight rate (RFR) to recover all costs including capital recovery is calculated. RFR is slightly lower for the St. Johns to Yokohama transit using the Northwest Passage, and higher for the New York to Yokohama route, as compared to the Panama Canal. Possible future thinning of Arctic ice would further improve the economics of the Northwest Passage.

Suggested Citation

  • Somanathan, Saran & Flynn, Peter & Szymanski, Jozef, 2009. "The Northwest Passage: A simulation," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 127-135, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:43:y:2009:i:2:p:127-135
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Yiru & Meng, Qiang & Ng, Szu Hui, 2016. "Shipping efficiency comparison between Northern Sea Route and the conventional Asia-Europe shipping route via Suez Canal," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 241-249.
    2. Heitmann, Nadine & Rehdanz, Katrin & Schmidt, Ulrich, 2013. "Determining optimal transit charges: the Kiel Canal in Germany," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 29-42.
    3. Jean-Fran�ois Pelletier & Emmanuel Guy, 2015. "Supply and demand for the Eastern Canadian Arctic Sealift," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(7), pages 669-681, October.
    4. Sun, Zhuo & Zheng, Jianfeng, 2016. "Finding potential hub locations for liner shipping," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 750-761.
    5. Liu, Miaojia & Kronbak, Jacob, 2010. "The potential economic viability of using the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as an alternative route between Asia and Europe," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 434-444.
    6. Lin, Dung-Ying & Chang, Yu-Ting, 2018. "Ship routing and freight assignment problem for liner shipping: Application to the Northern Sea Route planning problem," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 47-70.
    7. Zhao, Hui & Hu, Hao & Lin, Yisong, 2016. "Study on China-EU container shipping network in the context of Northern Sea Route," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 50-60.
    8. Yip, Tsz Leung & Wong, Mei Chi, 2015. "The Nicaragua Canal: scenarios of its future roles," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-13.
    9. Lei Fan & William W. Wilson & Bruce Dahl, 2012. "Impacts of new routes and ports on spatial competition for containerized imports into the United States," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(5), pages 479-501, September.
    10. Lasserre, Frédéric & Pelletier, Sébastien, 2011. "Polar super seaways? Maritime transport in the Arctic: an analysis of shipowners’ intentions," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1465-1473.
    11. Kenneth Button & Tomaž Kramberger & Tea Vizinger & Marko Intihar, 2017. "Economic implications for Adriatic seaport regions of further opening of the Northern Sea Route," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 19(1), pages 52-67, March.
    12. Dai, Lei & Jing, Danyue & Hu, Hao & Wang, Zhaojing, 2021. "An environmental and techno-economic analysis of transporting LNG via Arctic route," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 56-71.
    13. Koçak, Saim Turgut & Yercan, Funda, 2021. "Comparative cost-effectiveness analysis of Arctic and international shipping routes: A Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 147-164.
    14. Theocharis, Dimitrios & Pettit, Stephen & Rodrigues, Vasco Sanchez & Haider, Jane, 2018. "Arctic shipping: A systematic literature review of comparative studies," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 112-128.
    15. Jules Hugot & Camilo Umana Dajud, 2017. "Breaking Away from Icebreakers: The Effect of Melting Distances on Trade and Welfare," Working Papers 2017-24, CEPII research center.
    16. Lasserre, Frédéric & Beveridge, Leah & Fournier, Mélanie & Têtu, Pierre-Louis & Huang, Linyan, 2016. "Polar seaways? Maritime transport in the Arctic: An analysis of shipowners' intentions II," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 105-114.
    17. Chuya Wang & Minghu Ding & Yuande Yang & Ting Wei & Tingfeng Dou, 2022. "Risk Assessment of Ship Navigation in the Northwest Passage: Historical and Projection," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-20, May.
    18. Irina V. Benedyk & Srinivas Peeta, 2018. "A binary probit model to analyze freight transportation decision-maker perspectives for container shipping on the Northern Sea Route," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 20(3), pages 358-374, September.
    19. Sibul, Gleb & Jin, Jian Gang, 2021. "Evaluating the feasibility of combined use of the Northern Sea Route and the Suez Canal Route considering ice parameters," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 350-369.

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