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Effect of open skies in the Middle East region

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  • Adler, Nicole
  • Hashai, Niron

Abstract

This research aims to estimate potential inter-regional passenger flows for air transport in the Middle East under open skies polices, once deregulation agreements are reached between neighboring countries. To arrive at reasonable demand estimates, Western and Eastern European demand data was analyzed as a first step, since it is assumed that current Middle Eastern demand is distorted as a direct result of regional political instability. The major factors affecting demand, based on the European dataset, included population size, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, absolute difference in GDP per capita between two countries, great circle distance and membership of the European Union and World Trade Organization. Subsequently, a 21 country database was estimated for passenger flow in the Middle East region on an average peak season day. The demand estimations became input for a hub location model (p-hub median formulation) in order to achieve the second major aim of this research, objective identification of potential regional gateways. The results proved robust to both single and multiple allocation model assumptions, with Cairo and Tehran consistently achieving hub status, along with Istanbul and Riyadh, as the number of potential hubs increased. Finally, this research shows that under conditions of peace, given existing socio-economic indicators, inter-regional passenger demand flow could increase by upwards of 51% and regulatory authorities ought to consider the necessary infrastructure and demand management policies to enable the conservative regional demand growth estimated.

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  • Adler, Nicole & Hashai, Niron, 2005. "Effect of open skies in the Middle East region," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 878-894, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:39:y:2005:i:10:p:878-894
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    3. Valdes, Victor, 2015. "Determinants of air travel demand in Middle Income Countries," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 75-84.
    4. Truong, Dothang, 2021. "Estimating the impact of COVID-19 on air travel in the medium and long term using neural network and Monte Carlo simulation," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    5. Eric Tchouamou Njoya & Panayotis Christidis, 2017. "Potential impacts of liberalisation of the EU-Africa aviation market," JRC Research Reports JRC106855, Joint Research Centre.
    6. Fan, Terence Ping Ching, 2019. "Schedule creep – In search of an uncongested baseline block time by examining scheduled flight block times worldwide 1986–2016," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 192-217.
    7. Frédéric Dobruszkes & Christian Vandermotten, 2022. "Do scale and the type of markets matter? Revisiting the determinants of passenger air services worldwide," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/336304, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    8. Joshan, Saeid & Maertens, Sven, 2020. "Low cost carriers in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region: Emergence and barriers to development," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    9. Adler, Nicole & Njoya, Eric Tchouamou & Volta, Nicola, 2018. "The multi-airline p-hub median problem applied to the African aviation market," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 187-202.
    10. Abate, Megersa, 2016. "Economic effects of air transport market liberalization in Africa," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 326-337.
    11. Alves, Vera & Forte, Rosa, 2015. "A Cournot model for analysing the effects of an open skies agreement," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 125-134.
    12. Squalli, Jay, 2014. "Airline passenger traffic openness and the performance of Emirates Airline," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 138-145.
    13. Kinene, Alan & Birolini, Sebastian, 2024. "Optimization of subsidized air transport networks using electric aircraft," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
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    15. Njoya, Eric Tchouamou & Christidis, Panayiotis & Nikitas, Alexandros, 2018. "Understanding the impact of liberalisation in the EU-Africa aviation market," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 161-171.

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