IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jaitra/v96y2021ics0969699721001083.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating the impact of COVID-19 on air travel in the medium and long term using neural network and Monte Carlo simulation

Author

Listed:
  • Truong, Dothang

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a substantial impact on the airline industry. Air travel in the United States declined in 2020 with significantly lower domestic and international flights. The dynamic change and uncertainty in the trend of COVID-19 have made it difficult to predict future air travel. This paper aims at developing and testing neural network models that predict domestic and international air travel in the medium and long term based on residents' daily trips by distance, economic condition, COVID-19 severity, and travel restrictions. Data in the United States from various sources were used to train and validate the neural network models, and Monte Carlo simulations were constructed to predict air travel under uncertainty of the pandemic and economic growth. The results show that weekly economic index (WEI) is the most important predictor for air travel. Additionally, daily trips by distance play a more important role in the prediction of domestic air travel than the international one, while travel restrictions seem to have an impact on both. Sensitivity analysis results for four different scenarios indicate that air travel in the future is more sensitive to the change in WEI than the changes in COVID-19 variables. Additionally, even in the best-case scenario, when the pandemic is over and the economy is back to normal, it still takes several years for air travel to return to normal, as before the pandemic. The findings have significant contributions to the literature in COVID-19's impact on air transportation and air travel prediction.

Suggested Citation

  • Truong, Dothang, 2021. "Estimating the impact of COVID-19 on air travel in the medium and long term using neural network and Monte Carlo simulation," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:96:y:2021:i:c:s0969699721001083
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2021.102126
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0969699721001083
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2021.102126?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ortúzar, Juan de Dios & Simonetti, Carolina, 2008. "Modelling the demand for medium distance air travel with the mixed data estimation method," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 297-303.
    2. Sun, Xiaoqian & Wandelt, Sebastian & Zhang, Anming, 2020. "How did COVID-19 impact air transportation? A first peek through the lens of complex networks," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    3. Cline, Richard C. & Ruhl, Terry A. & Gosling, Geoffrey D. & Gillen, David W., 1998. "Air transportation demand forecasts in emerging market economies: a case study of the Kyrgyz Republic in the former Soviet Union," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 11-23.
    4. Baker, Douglas & Merkert, Rico & Kamruzzaman, Md., 2015. "Regional aviation and economic growth: cointegration and causality analysis in Australia," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 140-150.
    5. Gudmundsson, S.V. & Cattaneo, M. & Redondi, R., 2021. "Forecasting temporal world recovery in air transport markets in the presence of large economic shocks: The case of COVID-19," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    6. Truong, Dothang & Choi, Woojin, 2020. "Using machine learning algorithms to predict the risk of small Unmanned Aircraft System violations in the National Airspace System," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    7. Bauer, Linus Benjamin & Bloch, Daniel & Merkert, Rico, 2020. "Ultra Long-Haul: An emerging business model accelerated by COVID-19," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    8. Vedantham, Anu & Oppenheimer, Michael, 1998. "Long-term scenarios for aviation: Demand and emissions of CO2 and NOx," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 625-641, July.
    9. Valdes, Victor, 2015. "Determinants of air travel demand in Middle Income Countries," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 75-84.
    10. Beck, Matthew J. & Hensher, David A., 2020. "Insights into the impact of COVID-19 on household travel and activities in Australia – The early days under restrictions," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 76-93.
    11. Abed, Seraj Y. & Ba-Fail, Abdullah O. & Jasimuddin, Sajjad M., 2001. "An econometric analysis of international air travel demand in Saudi Arabia," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 143-148.
    12. Mason, Keith J., 2005. "Observations of fundamental changes in the demand for aviation services," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 19-25.
    13. Grosche, Tobias & Rothlauf, Franz & Heinzl, Armin, 2007. "Gravity models for airline passenger volume estimation," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 175-183.
    14. Hakim, Md Mahbubul & Merkert, Rico, 2016. "The causal relationship between air transport and economic growth: Empirical evidence from South Asia," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 120-127.
    15. Maneenop, Sakkakom & Kotcharin, Suntichai, 2020. "The impacts of COVID-19 on the global airline industry: An event study approach," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    16. Beck, Matthew J. & Hensher, David A., 2020. "Insights into the impact of COVID-19 on household travel and activities in Australia – The early days of easing restrictions," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 95-119.
    17. Graham, Anne, 2006. "Have the major forces driving leisure airline traffic changed?," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 14-20.
    18. Adler, Nicole & Hashai, Niron, 2005. "Effect of open skies in the Middle East region," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 878-894, December.
    19. Alican Karaer & Nozhan Balafkan & Michele Gazzea & Reza Arghandeh & Eren Erman Ozguven, 2020. "Analyzing COVID-19 Impacts on Vehicle Travels and Daily Nitrogen Dioxide (NO 2 ) Levels among Florida Counties," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-17, November.
    20. Bieger, Thomas & Wittmer, Andreas & Laesser, Christian, 2007. "What is driving the continued growth in demand for air travel? Customer value of air transport," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 31-36.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hu, Rong & Feng, Huilin & Witlox, Frank & Zhang, Junfeng & Connor, Kevin O., 2022. "Airport capacity constraints and air traffic demand in China," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    2. Elif Bozkaya & Levent Eriskin & Mumtaz Karatas, 2023. "Data analytics during pandemics: a transportation and location planning perspective," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 328(1), pages 193-244, September.
    3. Li, Siping & Xu, Gangyan & Zhou, Yaoming, 2023. "How air transport networks respond to long-lasting disruptive events like COVID-19: The first step toward long-term resilience," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    4. Hanson, Daniel & Toru Delibasi, Tuba & Gatti, Matteo & Cohen, Shamai, 2022. "How do changes in economic activity affect air passenger traffic? The use of state-dependent income elasticities to improve aviation forecasts," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    5. Truong, Dothang & Truong, My D., 2022. "How do customers change their purchasing behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic?," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hanson, Daniel & Toru Delibasi, Tuba & Gatti, Matteo & Cohen, Shamai, 2022. "How do changes in economic activity affect air passenger traffic? The use of state-dependent income elasticities to improve aviation forecasts," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    2. Valdes, Victor, 2015. "Determinants of air travel demand in Middle Income Countries," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 75-84.
    3. Wang, Sen & Gao, Yi, 2021. "A literature review and citation analyses of air travel demand studies published between 2010 and 2020," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    4. Kim, Myeonghyeon & Sohn, Jeongwoong, 2022. "Passenger, airline, and policy responses to the COVID-19 crisis: The case of South Korea," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    5. Chen, Yuting & Fuellhart, Kurt & Grubesic, Tony H. & Zhang, Shengrun & Witlox, Frank, 2024. "An analysis of the context factors influencing the diverse response of airports to COVID-19 using panel and group regression," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    6. Dey Tirtha, Sudipta & Bhowmik, Tanmoy & Eluru, Naveen, 2022. "An airport level framework for examining the impact of COVID-19 on airline demand," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 169-181.
    7. Frédéric Dobruszkes & Christian Vandermotten, 2022. "Do scale and the type of markets matter? Revisiting the determinants of passenger air services worldwide," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/336304, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    8. Dobruszkes, Frédéric & Vandermotten, Christian, 2022. "Do scale and the type of markets matter? Revisiting the determinants of passenger air services worldwide," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    9. Boonekamp, Thijs & Zuidberg, Joost & Burghouwt, Guillaume, 2018. "Determinants of air travel demand: The role of low-cost carriers, ethnic links and aviation-dependent employment," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 18-28.
    10. Dewansh Raheja & R. Guo & S. M. Phyoe & Y. X. Lee & Z. W. Zhong, 2017. "Air Traffic and Economic Output: Projections for ASEAN," International Journal of Business and Administrative Studies, Professor Dr. Bahaudin G. Mujtaba, vol. 3(3), pages 92-99.
    11. Jin, Feng & Li, Yongwu & Sun, Shaolong & Li, Hongtao, 2020. "Forecasting air passenger demand with a new hybrid ensemble approach," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    12. Hakim, Md Mahbubul & Merkert, Rico, 2019. "Econometric evidence on the determinants of air transport in South Asian countries," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 120-126.
    13. Tirtha, Sudipta Dey & Bhowmik, Tanmoy & Eluru, Naveen, 2023. "Understanding the factors affecting airport level demand (arrivals and departures) using a novel modeling approach," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    14. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6792 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Wang, Yue & Wong, Collin Wai Hung & Cheung, Tommy King-Yin & Wu, Edmund Yangming, 2021. "How influential factors affect aviation networks: A Bayesian network analysis," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    16. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6794 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Benoit Chèze & Pascal Gastineau & Julien Chevallier, 2010. "Forecasting air traffic and corresponding jet-fuel demande until 2025," Working Papers hal-02489878, HAL.
    18. Abdelghany, Ahmed & Guzhva, Vitaly S., 2022. "Exploratory analysis of air travel demand stimulation in first-time served markets," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    19. Morlotti, Chiara & Redondi, Renato, 2023. "The impact of COVID-19 on airlines’ price curves," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    20. Chen, Jieh-Haur & Wei, Hsi-Hsien & Chen, Chih-Lin & Wei, Hsin-Yi & Chen, Yi-Ping & Ye, Zhongnan, 2020. "A practical approach to determining critical macroeconomic factors in air-traffic volume based on K-means clustering and decision-tree classification," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    21. Xue, Dabin & Liu, Zhizhao & Wang, Bing & Yang, Jian, 2021. "Impacts of COVID-19 on aircraft usage and fuel consumption: A case study on four Chinese international airports," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    22. Law, Colin C.H. & Zhang, Yahua & Gow, Jeff & Vu, Xuan-Binh, 2022. "Dynamic relationship between air transport, economic growth and inbound tourism in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:96:y:2021:i:c:s0969699721001083. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-air-transport-management/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.