IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transa/v31y1997i6p447-458.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A co-integration approach to forecasting freight rates in the dry bulk shipping sector

Author

Listed:
  • Veenstra, Albert Willem
  • Franses, Philip Hans

Abstract

In this paper, a vector autoregressive model is developed for a sample of ocean dry bulk freight rates. Although the series of freight rates are themselves found to be non-stationary, thus precluding the use of many modelling methodologies, evidence provided by cointegration tests points to the existence of stable long-term relationships between the series. An assessment of the forecasts derived from the model suggests that the specification of these long-term relationships does not improve the accuracy of short- or long-term forecasts. These results are interpreted as a corroboration of the efficient market hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Veenstra, Albert Willem & Franses, Philip Hans, 1997. "A co-integration approach to forecasting freight rates in the dry bulk shipping sector," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 447-458, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:31:y:1997:i:6:p:447-458
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965-8564(97)00002-5
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    2. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    3. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    4. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kühl, Michael, 2007. "Cointegration in the foreign exchange market and market efficiency since the introduction of the Euro: Evidence based on bivariate cointegration analyses," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 68, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    2. H. Holly Wang & Bingfan Ke, 2005. "Efficiency tests of agricultural commodity futures markets in China," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 49(2), pages 125-141, June.
    3. Kühl, Michael, 2010. "Bivariate cointegration of major exchange rates, cross-market efficiency and the introduction of the Euro," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 1-19, January.
    4. Wang, H. Holly & Ke, Bingfan, 2003. "Is China'S Agricultural Futures Market Efficient?," 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa 25806, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Panayiotis Diamandis & Georgios Kouretas, 1995. "Cointegration and market efficiency: a time series analysis of the Greek drachma," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(8), pages 271-277.
    6. Baker, Mindy Lyn, 2009. "Three essays concerning agriculture and energy," ISU General Staff Papers 200901010800001849, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    7. repec:got:cegedp:68 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Yap, Wei Yim & Lam, Jasmine S.L., 2006. "Competition dynamics between container ports in East Asia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 35-51, January.
    9. Benjamin Miranda Tabak Eduardo José Araújo Lima, 2002. "Causality and Cointegration in Stock Markets: The Case of Latin America," Working Papers Series 56, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    10. Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-387, October.
    11. Chu, Quentin C. & Pittman, Deborah N. & Yu, Linda Q., 2003. "Real rates, nominal rates, and the Fisherian link," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 189-205.
    12. Phylaktis, Kate & Chen, Long, 2009. "Price discovery in foreign exchange markets: A comparison of indicative and actual transaction prices," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 640-654, September.
    13. Song, Chi-Young, 1997. "The Real Exchange Rate and the Current Account Balance in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 143-184, June.
    14. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Davide Ciferri & Alessandro Girardi, 2014. "Time-Varying Spot and Futures Oil Price Dynamics," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(1), pages 78-97, February.
    15. Elizabeth C. Wakerly & Byron G. Scott & James M. Nason, 2006. "Common trends and common cycles in Canada: who knew so much has been going on?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 320-347, February.
    16. Pierre Siklos & Ben Kwok, 1999. "Stock returns and inflation: a new test of competing hypotheses," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(6), pages 567-581.
    17. Wu, Jyh-lin, 1998. "Are budget deficits "too large"?: The evidence from Taiwan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 519-528.
    18. Alexander Schätz, 2010. "Macroeconomic Effects on Emerging Market Sector Indices," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 9(2), pages 131-169, August.
    19. Pramod Kumar, Naik & Puja, Padhi, 2012. "The impact of Macroeconomic Fundamentals on Stock Prices revisited: An Evidence from Indian Data," MPRA Paper 38980, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Francisco de Castro & José Manuel González-Páramo & Pablo Hernández de Cos, 2004. "Fiscal consolidation in Spain: dynamic interdependence of public spending and revenues," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 28(1), pages 193-207, January.
    21. Francesco Guidi, 2009. "Volatility and Long-Term Relations in Equity Markets: Empirical Evidence from Germany, Switzerland, and the UK," The IUP Journal of Financial Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(2), pages 7-39, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:31:y:1997:i:6:p:447-458. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/547/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.