The influence of individual physical capabilities for cycling adoption: Understanding its influence and mode-shift potentials

We show the importance of individual physical capabilities for cycling in Switzerland, as well as introducing a routing-tool that integrates these capabilities into the estimation of cycling demand potentials. A binary logit model to predict daily cycling was estimated, using data from the Swiss Health Survey. It is found that the frequency of physical exercise explains most of the variability of the choice to cycle or not. Since previous work in the literature has shown a clear link between exercise frequency and physical strength, one valid, although so far not directly observable hypothesis is that more physical power leads to faster speeds and higher competitiveness of cycling against other modes. The higher power output of E-Bikes and S-Pedelecs further increase cycling potentials in this context. We therefore use data from the Swiss Health Survey to impute cycling potentials for individuals who participated in the Swiss Mobility Microcensus and evaluate mode-shifts potentials to bikes based on travel times of public transport and car trips. Because our router makes use of an elevation-aware physical model, which takes into account bike and cyclist characteristics, such as input power and weight, we also model pedelecs and speed-pedelecs and show how such bike types increase the mode-shift potentials towards bicycles.