IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transa/v176y2023ics0965856423002379.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A data-driven decision support system for service completion prediction in last mile logistics

Author

Listed:
  • Pegado-Bardayo, Ana
  • Lorenzo-Espejo, Antonio
  • Muñuzuri, Jesús
  • Aparicio-Ruiz, Pablo

Abstract

The growing demand for last mile services (deliveries and pickups) often results in the work overload of couriers, who are unable to complete all their assigned services within their working day. Uncompleted services are a source of strong dissatisfaction by customers, particularly since they were probably aware that their requested service was scheduled for the day. The possibility of predicting how many and which are going to be these uncompleted services becomes an effective decision-making tool that would allow carriers to increase their perceived service levels without increasing the number of couriers and vehicles. This issue is addressed through the combination of two models. Firstly, machine learning techniques are applied to estimate how many services will remain uncompleted on a given route. Secondly, the use of clustering techniques is proposed as the basis to predict the routes to be followed by couriers, thus identifying potentially uncompleted services as the last ones in each route. The posited methodology is illustrated with a case study comprising four regions in Spain, obtaining promising results in terms of the predictive capacity and the accuracy of the models.

Suggested Citation

  • Pegado-Bardayo, Ana & Lorenzo-Espejo, Antonio & Muñuzuri, Jesús & Aparicio-Ruiz, Pablo, 2023. "A data-driven decision support system for service completion prediction in last mile logistics," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:176:y:2023:i:c:s0965856423002379
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2023.103817
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856423002379
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tra.2023.103817?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chen, Ting-Yu & Chang, Hsin-Li & Tzeng, Gwo-Hshiung, 2001. "Using a weight-assessing model to identify route choice criteria and information effects," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 197-224, March.
    2. Bernhard Swoboda & Carolina Sinning, 2022. "Effects of Internationalization Rhythm and Speed on E-Commerce Firms’ Growth and the Role of Institutional Distances," Management International Review, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 169-201, April.
    3. Dablanc, Laetitia, 2007. "Goods transport in large European cities: Difficult to organize, difficult to modernize," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 280-285, March.
    4. Özarık, Sami Serkan & Veelenturf, Lucas P. & Woensel, Tom Van & Laporte, Gilbert, 2021. "Optimizing e-commerce last-mile vehicle routing and scheduling under uncertain customer presence," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    5. Xiang Zhang, 2019. "Investigation of e‐commerce in China in a geographical perspective," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(3), pages 1062-1084, September.
    6. Ciscal-Terry, Wilner & Dell'Amico, Mauro & Hadjidimitriou, Natalia Selini & Iori, Manuel, 2016. "An analysis of drivers route choice behaviour using GPS data and optimal alternatives," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 119-129.
    7. Juanjuan Chen & Liying Huang & Chengliang Wang & Nijia Zheng, 2020. "Discovering Travel Spatiotemporal Pattern Based on Sequential Events Similarity," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2020, pages 1-10, December.
    8. Weltevreden, Jesse W.J. & Rotem-Mindali, Orit, 2009. "Mobility effects of b2c and c2c e-commerce in the Netherlands: a quantitative assessment," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 83-92.
    9. Dalumpines, Ron & Scott, Darren M., 2017. "Determinants of route choice behavior: A comparison of shop versus work trips using the Potential Path Area - Gateway (PPAG) algorithm and Path-Size Logit," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 59-68.
    10. Shenle Pan & Vaggelis Giannikas & Yufei Han & Etta Grover-Silva & Bin Qiao, 2017. "Using Customer-related Data to Enhance E-grocery Home Delivery," Post-Print hal-01482901, HAL.
    11. Pan Sheng & Jingbo Yin, 2018. "Extracting Shipping Route Patterns by Trajectory Clustering Model Based on Automatic Identification System Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-13, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Özarık, Sami Serkan & Lurkin, Virginie & Veelenturf, Lucas P. & Van Woensel, Tom & Laporte, Gilbert, 2023. "An Adaptive Large Neighborhood Search heuristic for last-mile deliveries under stochastic customer availability and multiple visits," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 194-220.
    2. Zanni, Alberto M. & Bristow, Abigail L., 2010. "Emissions of CO2 from road freight transport in London: Trends and policies for long run reductions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1774-1786, April.
    3. Priscila Pereira Suzart Carvalho & Ricardo Araújo Kalid & Jorge Laureano Moya Rodríguez & Sandro Breval Santiago, 2019. "Interactions among stakeholders in the processes of city logistics: a systematic review of the literature," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 120(2), pages 567-607, August.
    4. Mashalah, Heider Al & Hassini, Elkafi & Gunasekaran, Angappa & Bhatt (Mishra), Deepa, 2022. "The impact of digital transformation on supply chains through e-commerce: Literature review and a conceptual framework," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    5. Behiri, Walid & Belmokhtar-Berraf, Sana & Chu, Chengbin, 2018. "Urban freight transport using passenger rail network: Scientific issues and quantitative analysis," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 227-245.
    6. Ozbilen, Basar & Wang, Kailai & Akar, Gulsah, 2021. "Revisiting the impacts of virtual mobility on travel behavior: An exploration of daily travel time expenditures," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 49-62.
    7. Pedro A. P. Dias & Hugo Yoshizaki & Patricia Favero & Jose Geraldo Vidal Vieira, 2019. "Daytime or Overnight Deliveries? Perceptions of Drivers and Retailers in São Paulo City," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-16, November.
    8. Yang, Chao & Chen, Mingyang & Yuan, Quan, 2021. "The geography of freight-related accidents in the era of E-commerce: Evidence from the Los Angeles metropolitan area," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    9. Daniele Crotti & Elena Maggi, 2023. "Social Responsibility and Urban Consolidation Centres in Sustainable Freight Transport Markets," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 9(2), pages 829-850, July.
    10. Sandrine Ville & Jesus Gonzalez-Feliu & Laetitia Dablanc, 2010. "The limits of public policy intervention in urban logistics: The case of Vicenza (Italy) and lessons for other European cities," Post-Print halshs-00742857, HAL.
    11. Thomas Baudel & Laetitia Dablanc & Penelope Aguiar-Melgarejo & Jean Ashton, 2015. "Optimizing Urban Freight Deliveries: From Designing and Testing a Prototype System to Addressing Real Life Challenges," Post-Print hal-01255153, HAL.
    12. Ta, Na & Zhao, Ying & Chai, Yanwei, 2016. "Built environment, peak hours and route choice efficiency: An investigation of commuting efficiency using GPS data," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 161-170.
    13. repec:iim:iimawp:14638 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Nathalia de Castro Zambuzi & Cláudio Barbieri da Cunha & Edgar Blanco & Hugo T.Y. Yoshizaki & Carla D.Rosa Carvalho, 2013. "The Aspects of the Urban Distribution in a Megacity: A Comparison Between São Paulo’s and Boston’s Urban Deliveries," LARES lares_2013_858-1006-1-sm, Latin American Real Estate Society (LARES).
    15. Santos, Lui­s & Coutinho-Rodrigues, João & Current, John R., 2008. "Implementing a multi-vehicle multi-route spatial decision support system for efficient trash collection in Portugal," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 922-934, July.
    16. Ni, Linglin & Wang, Xiaokun (Cara) & Zhang, Dapeng, 2016. "Impacts of information technology and urbanization on less-than-truckload freight flows in China: An analysis considering spatial effects," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 12-25.
    17. Bruno Durand, 2010. "E-Commerce And City Logistics: When The Sustainable Development Gets Involved In It … [E-Commerce Et Logistique Urbaine : Quand Le Developpement Durable S'En Mele…]," Post-Print hal-01770398, HAL.
    18. Kunbo Shi & Long Cheng & Jonas De Vos & Yongchun Yang & Wanpeng Cao & Frank Witlox, 2021. "How does purchasing intangible services online influence the travel to consume these services? A focus on a Chinese context," Transportation, Springer, vol. 48(5), pages 2605-2625, October.
    19. Sergio Pardo-Jaramillo & Andrés Muñoz-Villamizar & Ignacio Osuna & Rolando Roncancio, 2020. "Mapping Research on Customer Centricity and Sustainable Organizations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-18, September.
    20. Jesus Gonzalez-Feliu & Bruno Durand & Dina Andriankaja, 2012. "Challenges in last-mile e-grocery urban distribution: have new B2C trends a positive impact on the environment? [Les défis du dernier kilomètre pour l'épicerie en ligne : l'impact environnemental d," Post-Print hal-01770405, HAL.
    21. Jonathan Cowie & Keith Fisken, 2023. "Urban freight policy maturity and sustainable logistics: are they related?," Journal of Shipping and Trade, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-17, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:176:y:2023:i:c:s0965856423002379. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/547/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.