IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transa/v169y2023ics096585642300006x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analyzing multiple COVID-19 outbreak impacts: A case study based on Chinese national air passenger flow

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Jinghua
  • Zhang, Zhao
  • Lu, Guangquan
  • Yu, Bin
  • Zhan, Chengyu
  • Cai, Jingsong

Abstract

The spread of COVID-19 results in a significant drop in traffic levels worldwide. Quantifying the impact of multiple COVID-19 outbreaks on traffic systems is critical to developing differentiated policies in the future. This paper proposes a novel COVID-19 multiple outbreak analysis method (NCMOA), dividing the impact scope and degree under multiple COVID-19 disturbances, and using the recovery rate and accumulated loss to quantify the impacts on air passenger flow. A case study based on Chinese national air traffic flow is executed, and the recovery patterns and the differentiated disturbances are analyzed. Results show that air passenger flow recovers with a similar pattern after the first outbreak, and subsequent outbreaks cause local effects and cannot affect the overall recovery pattern. Further, the heterogeneous influence factors and trends on the epi-centers (EC) and the nation are analyzed. In addition, the methods and results of this paper quantify the impact of COVID-19 on air passenger flow at a more detailed level under multiple disturbances. They could provide a basis for differentiated policy formulation of airlines and government in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Jinghua & Zhang, Zhao & Lu, Guangquan & Yu, Bin & Zhan, Chengyu & Cai, Jingsong, 2023. "Analyzing multiple COVID-19 outbreak impacts: A case study based on Chinese national air passenger flow," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:169:y:2023:i:c:s096585642300006x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2023.103586
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096585642300006X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tra.2023.103586?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gopal R. Patil & B. K. Bhavathrathan, 2016. "Effect Of Traffic Demand Variation On Road Network Resilience," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(01n02), pages 1-18, February.
    2. Zhou, Huiyu & Wang, Yacan & Huscroft, Joseph R. & Bai, Kailing, 2021. "Impacts of COVID-19 and anti-pandemic policies on urban transport—an empirical study in China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 135-149.
    3. Hensher, David A. & Balbontin, Camila & Beck, Matthew J. & Wei, Edward, 2022. "The impact of working from home on modal commuting choice response during COVID-19: Implications for two metropolitan areas in Australia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 179-201.
    4. Mohammad Mojtahedi & Sidney Newton & Jason Meding, 2017. "Predicting the resilience of transport infrastructure to a natural disaster using Cox’s proportional hazards regression model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 85(2), pages 1119-1133, January.
    5. Zhang, Junyi & Hayashi, Yoshitsugu & Frank, Lawrence D., 2021. "COVID-19 and transport: Findings from a world-wide expert survey," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 68-85.
    6. Mingyu Tong & Zou Yan & Liu Chao, 2020. "Research on a Grey Prediction Model of Population Growth Based on a Logistic Approach," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2020, pages 1-14, October.
    7. Albers, Sascha & Rundshagen, Volker, 2020. "European airlines′ strategic responses to the COVID-19 pandemic (January-May, 2020)," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    8. Tang, Bao-jun & Wu, Xiao-feng & Zhang, Xian, 2013. "Modeling the CO2 emissions and energy saved from new energy vehicles based on the logistic-curve," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 30-35.
    9. Schaefer, Kerstin J. & Tuitjer, Leonie & Levin-Keitel, Meike, 2021. "Transport disrupted – Substituting public transport by bike or car under Covid 19," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 202-217.
    10. Xinliang Xu & Shihao Wang & Jinhui Dong & Zhicheng Shen & Shuwan Xu, 2020. "An analysis of the domestic resumption of social production and life under the COVID-19 epidemic," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(7), pages 1-15, July.
    11. Zhang, Linfeng & Yang, Hangjun & Wang, Kun & Bian, Lei & Zhang, Xian, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on airline passenger travel behavior: An exploratory analysis on the Chinese aviation market," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Li & Chen, Tingting & Liu, Zhongshan & Yu, Bin & Wang, Yunpeng, 2024. "Analysis of multi-modal public transportation system performance under metro disruptions: A dynamic resilience assessment framework," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    2. Borsati, Mattia & Fageda, Xavier, 2024. "Airline price responses in the face of demand shocks: European lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    3. Chen, Yuting & Fuellhart, Kurt & Grubesic, Tony H. & Zhang, Shengrun & Witlox, Frank, 2024. "An analysis of the context factors influencing the diverse response of airports to COVID-19 using panel and group regression," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    4. Randrianarisoa, Laingo M. & Gillen, David, 2023. "Policy responses and travellers’ preferences in pandemics: Evidence from Europe," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 305-316.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jinjia Liang & Tomio Miwa & Takayuki Morikawa, 2023. "Preferences and Expectations of Japanese Employees toward Telecommuting Frequency in the Post-Pandemic Era," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-16, August.
    2. Zhang, Junyi & Hayashi, Yoshitsugu, 2022. "Research frontier of COVID-19 and passenger transport: A focus on policymaking," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 78-88.
    3. Sugishita, Kashin & Mizutani, Hiroki & Hanaoka, Shinya, 2024. "Disruption and recovery of the US domestic airline networks during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    4. Ng, Kam To & Fu, Xiaowen & Hanaoka, Shinya & Oum, Tae Hoon, 2022. "Japanese aviation market performance during the COVID-19 pandemic - Analyzing airline yield and competition in the domestic market," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 237-247.
    5. Karimi, Sina & Samadzad, Mahdi & Lesteven, Gaele, 2024. "Navigating public transport during a pandemic: Key lessons on travel behavior and social equity from two surveys in Tehran," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    6. Budd, Thomas & Suau-Sanchez, Pere & Halpern, Nigel & Mwesiumo, Deodat & Bråthen, Svein, 2021. "An assessment of air passenger confidence a year into the COVID-19 crisis: A segmentation analysis of passengers in Norway," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    7. Christidis, Panayotis & Navajas Cawood, Elena & Fiorello, Davide, 2022. "Challenges for urban transport policy after the Covid-19 pandemic: Main findings from a survey in 20 European cities," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 105-116.
    8. Garaus, Marion & Hudáková, Melánia, 2022. "The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourists’ air travel intentions: The role of perceived health risk and trust in the airline," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    9. Tscharaktschiew, Stefan & Reimann, Felix, 2021. "On employer-paid parking and parking (cash-out) policy: A formal synthesis of different perspectives," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 499-516.
    10. Philippe Askenazy & Clément Brébion & Pierre Courtioux & Christine Erhel & Malo Mofakhami, 2023. "HRM Strategies in Response to the First Covid Lockdown: a Typology of French Workplaces," CEPN Working Papers hal-03953817, HAL.
    11. Ferreira, Sara & Amorim, Marco & Lobo, António & Kern, Mira & Fanderl, Nora & Couto, António, 2022. "Travel mode preferences among German commuters over the course of COVID-19 pandemic," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 55-64.
    12. Christopher Findlay & Hein Roelfsema & Niall Van De Wouw, 2021. "Feeling the Pulse of Global Value Chains: Air Cargo and COVID-19," Working Papers DP-2021-23, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    13. Hiney, Noel & Efthymiou, Marina & Morgenroth, Edgar, 2023. "Impact of Covid-19 on Irish airport stakeholder relationships," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    14. Daniel Albalate & Xavier Fageda, 2022. ""Have Low Emission Zones slowed urban traffic recovery after Covid-19?"," IREA Working Papers 202222, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Dec 2022.
    15. Shuai Yu & Bin Li & Dongmei Liu, 2023. "Exploring the Public Health of Travel Behaviors in High-Speed Railway Environment during the COVID-19 Pandemic from the Perspective of Trip Chain: A Case Study of Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Urban Agglomera," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-22, January.
    16. Yiu, Cho Yin & Ng, Kam K.H. & Yu, Simon C.M. & Yu, Chun Wah, 2022. "Sustaining aviation workforce after the pandemic: Evidence from Hong Kong aviation students toward skills, specialised training, and career prospects through a mixed-method approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 179-192.
    17. Sun, Xiaoqian & Wandelt, Sebastian & Zhang, Anming, 2021. "Technological and educational challenges towards pandemic-resilient aviation," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 104-115.
    18. Lin, Yi-Hsin & Wu, Hanjun & He, Hang & Tsui, Kan Wai Hong, 2023. "Changes in perceptions of airport services’ attributes: An assessment of the impacts of COVID-19," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 116-128.
    19. Weixing Liu & Hongtao Yi, 2020. "What Affects the Diffusion of New Energy Vehicles Financial Subsidy Policy? Evidence from Chinese Cities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-15, January.
    20. Jacques Bughin & Francis Hinterman & Sybille Berjoan, 2022. "A Good Crisis (not) Wasted: How Exploiting and Expanding Dynamic Capabilities Shape Corporate Performance During the Covid Pandemic," Working Papers TIMES² WP2022-051, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:169:y:2023:i:c:s096585642300006x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/547/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.