IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transa/v142y2020icp101-114.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An integrated risk assessment model for safe Arctic navigation

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Chi
  • Zhang, Di
  • Zhang, Mingyang
  • Lang, Xiao
  • Mao, Wengang

Abstract

Safety is always the first concern for a ship’s navigation in the Arctic. Ships navigating in the Arctic may face two main accident scenarios, i.e., getting stuck in the ice and ship-ice collision. More specifically, excessive speed may cause severe hull damage, while a very low speed may lead to a high probability of getting stuck in the ice. Based on this multi-risk perspective, an integrated risk assessment model was proposed to obtain the overall risk using the Bayesian Network (BN), in which the probabilities of accident occurrence and the severities of the possible consequences for ships getting stuck in the ice and for ship-ice collision could be estimated. Then, the voyage data collected from Yong Sheng’s Arctic sailing in 2013 were inputted into the integrated risk assessment model to perform a case study. A sensitivity analysis was performed to validate the proposed model and reveal the inherent mechanisms behind these two accidental scenarios. The proposed model can be applied to identify the safe speed for Arctic navigation under various ice conditions, a duty that is traditionally performed by well-trained crew members, but which entails too many uncertainties. The results can, to some extent, provide useful suggestions for navigators. They are imperative in supporting decision-making to shape the Arctic policy and to enhance the safety of Arctic shipping.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Chi & Zhang, Di & Zhang, Mingyang & Lang, Xiao & Mao, Wengang, 2020. "An integrated risk assessment model for safe Arctic navigation," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 101-114.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:142:y:2020:i:c:p:101-114
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2020.10.017
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856420307618
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tra.2020.10.017?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fu, Shanshan & Zhang, Di & Montewka, Jakub & Yan, Xinping & Zio, Enrico, 2016. "Towards a probabilistic model for predicting ship besetting in ice in Arctic waters," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 124-136.
    2. Faury, Olivier & Cariou, Pierre, 2016. "The Northern Sea Route competitiveness for oil tankers," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 461-469.
    3. Wan, Chengpeng & Yan, Xinping & Zhang, Di & Qu, Zhuohua & Yang, Zaili, 2019. "An advanced fuzzy Bayesian-based FMEA approach for assessing maritime supply chain risks," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 222-240.
    4. Pierre, Cariou & Olivier, Faury, 2015. "Relevance of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) for bulk shipping," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 337-346.
    5. Olivier Faury & Pierre Cariou, 2016. "The Northern Sea Route competitiveness for oil tankers," Post-Print hal-02072732, HAL.
    6. Shanshan Fu & Xinping Yan & Di Zhang & Minyang Zhang, 2018. "Risk influencing factors analysis of Arctic maritime transportation systems: a Chinese perspective," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(4), pages 439-455, May.
    7. Pierre Cariou & Olivier Faury, 2015. "Relevance of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) for bulk shipping," Post-Print hal-02077034, HAL.
    8. Khan, Bushra & Khan, Faisal & Veitch, Brian & Yang, Ming, 2018. "An operational risk analysis tool to analyze marine transportation in Arctic waters," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 485-502.
    9. Zhang, D. & Yan, X.P. & Yang, Z.L. & Wall, A. & Wang, J., 2013. "Incorporation of formal safety assessment and Bayesian network in navigational risk estimation of the Yangtze River," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 93-105.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zvyagina, Tatiana & Zvyagin, Petr, 2022. "A model of multi-objective route optimization for a vessel in drifting ice," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PB).
    2. Sung-Woo Lee & Jisung Jo & Sewon Kim, 2021. "Leveraging the 4th Industrial Revolution Technology for Sustainable Development of the Northern Sea Route (NSR)—The Case Study of Autonomous Vessel," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-12, July.
    3. Rigot-Müller, Patrick & Cheaitou, Ali & Etienne, Laurent & Faury, Olivier & Fedi, Laurent, 2022. "The role of polarseaworthiness in shipping planning for infrastructure projects in the Arctic: The case of Yamal LNG plant," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 330-353.
    4. Fu, Shanshan & Yu, Yuerong & Chen, Jihong & Xi, Yongtao & Zhang, Mingyang, 2022. "A framework for quantitative analysis of the causation of grounding accidents in arctic shipping," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    5. Xu, Sheng & Kim, Ekaterina & Haugen, Stein & Zhang, Mingyang, 2022. "A Bayesian network risk model for predicting ship besetting in ice during convoy operations along the Northern Sea Route," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Benz, Lukas & Münch, Christopher & Hartmann, Evi, 2021. "Fuzzy-based decision analysis on Arctic transportation: A guidance for freight shipping companies," Chapters from the Proceedings of the Hamburg International Conference of Logistics (HICL), in: Jahn, Carlos & Kersten, Wolfgang & Ringle, Christian M. (ed.), Adapting to the Future: Maritime and City Logistics in the Context of Digitalization and Sustainability. Proceedings of the Hamburg International Conf, volume 32, pages 375-400, Hamburg University of Technology (TUHH), Institute of Business Logistics and General Management.
    2. Zheng Wan & Jiawei Ge & Jihong Chen, 2018. "Energy-Saving Potential and an Economic Feasibility Analysis for an Arctic Route between Shanghai and Rotterdam: Case Study from China’s Largest Container Sea Freight Operator," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-13, March.
    3. Fu, Shanshan & Yu, Yuerong & Chen, Jihong & Xi, Yongtao & Zhang, Mingyang, 2022. "A framework for quantitative analysis of the causation of grounding accidents in arctic shipping," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    4. Yu, Qing & Liu, Kezhong & Chang, Chia-Hsun & Yang, Zaili, 2020. "Realising advanced risk assessment of vessel traffic flows near offshore wind farms," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    5. Xu, Sheng & Kim, Ekaterina & Haugen, Stein & Zhang, Mingyang, 2022. "A Bayesian network risk model for predicting ship besetting in ice during convoy operations along the Northern Sea Route," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    6. Rigot-Müller, Patrick & Cheaitou, Ali & Etienne, Laurent & Faury, Olivier & Fedi, Laurent, 2022. "The role of polarseaworthiness in shipping planning for infrastructure projects in the Arctic: The case of Yamal LNG plant," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 330-353.
    7. Kandel, Rajesh & Baroud, Hiba, 2024. "A data-driven risk assessment of Arctic maritime incidents: Using machine learning to predict incident types and identify risk factors," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    8. Benz, Lukas & Münch, Christopher & Hartmann, Evi, 2021. "Development of a search and rescue framework for maritime freight shipping in the Arctic," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 54-69.
    9. Zeng, Qingcheng & Lu, Tingyu & Lin, Kun-Chin & Yuen, Kum Fai & Li, Kevin X., 2020. "The competitiveness of Arctic shipping over Suez Canal and China-Europe railway," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 34-43.
    10. Dinis, D. & Teixeira, A.P. & Guedes Soares, C., 2020. "Probabilistic approach for characterising the static risk of ships using Bayesian networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    11. Laurent Fedi & Olivier Faury & Laurent Etienne & Ali Cheaitou & Patrick Rigot-Muller, 2024. "Application of the IMO taxonomy on casualty investigation: Analysis of 20 years of marine accidents along the North-East Passage," Post-Print hal-04483233, HAL.
    12. Li, Huanhuan & Ren, Xujie & Yang, Zaili, 2023. "Data-driven Bayesian network for risk analysis of global maritime accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    13. Fan, Shiqi & Blanco-Davis, Eduardo & Yang, Zaili & Zhang, Jinfen & Yan, Xinping, 2020. "Incorporation of human factors into maritime accident analysis using a data-driven Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    14. Theocharis, Dimitrios & Rodrigues, Vasco Sanchez & Pettit, Stephen & Haider, Jane, 2021. "Feasibility of the Northern Sea Route for seasonal transit navigation: The role of ship speed on ice and alternative fuel types for the oil product tanker market," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 259-283.
    15. Goerlandt, Floris & Islam, Samsul, 2021. "A Bayesian Network risk model for estimating coastal maritime transportation delays following an earthquake in British Columbia," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    16. Wang, Yangjun & Liu, Kefeng & Zhang, Ren & Qian, Longxia & Shan, Yulong, 2021. "Feasibility of the Northeast Passage: The role of vessel speed, route planning, and icebreaking assistance determined by sea-ice conditions for the container shipping market during 2020–2030," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    17. Sibul, Gleb & Jin, Jian Gang, 2021. "Evaluating the feasibility of combined use of the Northern Sea Route and the Suez Canal Route considering ice parameters," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 350-369.
    18. Guo, Yunlong & Jin, Yongxing & Hu, Shenping & Yang, Zaili & Xi, Yongtao & Han, Bing, 2023. "Risk evolution analysis of ship pilotage operation by an integrated model of FRAM and DBN," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    19. Xu, Hua & Yin, Zhifang, 2021. "The optimal icebreaking tariffs and the economic performance of tramp shipping on the Northern Sea Route," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 76-97.
    20. Rashid, Khalid & Safdarnejad, Seyed Mostafa & Ellingwood, Kevin & Powell, Kody M., 2019. "Techno-economic evaluation of different hybridization schemes for a solar thermal/gas power plant," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 91-106.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:142:y:2020:i:c:p:101-114. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/547/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.