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Risk influencing factors analysis of Arctic maritime transportation systems: a Chinese perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Shanshan Fu
  • Xinping Yan
  • Di Zhang
  • Minyang Zhang

Abstract

Recently, the melting of Arctic sea ice and development of maritime technology are enabling the regular voyages in Arctic waters. However, the Arctic maritime transportation system (AMTS) is a complex and dynamic system with respect to human, technical, environmental and organizational issues. For example, ships operating in Arctic waters suffer severe weather conditions, fully and partially ice-covered waters, and are also difficult to search and rescue in ice-covered Arctic waters due to remoteness from lands. These risk factors will influence the safety and security of ships operating in Arctic waters. For this, this paper identifies potential risk influencing factors (RIFs) for the AMTS from human, technical (ship), environmental and organizational aspects. An analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method is used to analyze the hierarchical relationships and calculate the relative importance of the selected RIFs. Due to the complexity and uncertainty involved in the comprehensive analysis of RIFs for the AMTS, fuzzy sets are incorporated into AHP analysis to represent and treat the epistemic uncertainty. The identified critical RIFs in this study can be used to propose specific guidance for the operations of crews on board, ship owners, and ship managers.

Suggested Citation

  • Shanshan Fu & Xinping Yan & Di Zhang & Minyang Zhang, 2018. "Risk influencing factors analysis of Arctic maritime transportation systems: a Chinese perspective," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(4), pages 439-455, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:marpmg:v:45:y:2018:i:4:p:439-455
    DOI: 10.1080/03088839.2018.1448477
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    Cited by:

    1. Omid Ghorbanzadeh & Sarbast Moslem & Thomas Blaschke & Szabolcs Duleba, 2018. "Sustainable Urban Transport Planning Considering Different Stakeholder Groups by an Interval-AHP Decision Support Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-18, December.
    2. Fu, Shanshan & Yu, Yuerong & Chen, Jihong & Xi, Yongtao & Zhang, Mingyang, 2022. "A framework for quantitative analysis of the causation of grounding accidents in arctic shipping," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    3. Koçak, Saim Turgut & Yercan, Funda, 2021. "Comparative cost-effectiveness analysis of Arctic and international shipping routes: A Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 147-164.
    4. Zhang, Chi & Zhang, Di & Zhang, Mingyang & Lang, Xiao & Mao, Wengang, 2020. "An integrated risk assessment model for safe Arctic navigation," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 101-114.
    5. Zeng, Qingcheng & Lu, Tingyu & Lin, Kun-Chin & Yuen, Kum Fai & Li, Kevin X., 2020. "The competitiveness of Arctic shipping over Suez Canal and China-Europe railway," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 34-43.
    6. Clara Moreira Senne & Josiane Palma Lima & Fábio Favaretto, 2021. "An Index for the Sustainability of Integrated Urban Transport and Logistics: The Case Study of São Paulo," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-18, November.
    7. Antão, P. & Sun, S. & Teixeira, A.P. & Guedes Soares, C., 2023. "Quantitative assessment of ship collision risk influencing factors from worldwide accident and fleet data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    8. Sarbast Moslem & Omid Ghorbanzadeh & Thomas Blaschke & Szabolcs Duleba, 2019. "Analysing Stakeholder Consensus for a Sustainable Transport Development Decision by the Fuzzy AHP and Interval AHP," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-22, June.
    9. Liu, Yang & Ma, Xiaoxue & Qiao, Weiliang & Ma, Laihao & Han, Bing, 2024. "A novel methodology to model disruption propagation for resilient maritime transportation systems–a case study of the Arctic maritime transportation system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    10. Baode Li & Jing Li & Jing Lu, 2019. "Research on the Coupled Risk of Key Nodes in Maritime Transport Based on Improved Catastrophe Theory," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-21, August.
    11. Aziz, Abdul & Ahmed, Salim & Khan, Faisal & Stack, Chris & Lind, Annes, 2019. "Operational risk assessment model for marine vessels," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 348-361.
    12. Benz, Lukas & Münch, Christopher & Hartmann, Evi, 2021. "Fuzzy-based decision analysis on Arctic transportation: A guidance for freight shipping companies," Chapters from the Proceedings of the Hamburg International Conference of Logistics (HICL), in: Jahn, Carlos & Kersten, Wolfgang & Ringle, Christian M. (ed.), Adapting to the Future: Maritime and City Logistics in the Context of Digitalization and Sustainability. Proceedings of the Hamburg International Conf, volume 32, pages 375-400, Hamburg University of Technology (TUHH), Institute of Business Logistics and General Management.
    13. Benz, Lukas & Münch, Christopher & Hartmann, Evi, 2021. "Development of a search and rescue framework for maritime freight shipping in the Arctic," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 54-69.
    14. Xu, Sheng & Kim, Ekaterina & Haugen, Stein & Zhang, Mingyang, 2022. "A Bayesian network risk model for predicting ship besetting in ice during convoy operations along the Northern Sea Route," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).

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