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Exact confidence intervals for population growth rate, longevity and generation time

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  • Hernandez-Suarez, Carlos
  • Rabinovich, Jorge

Abstract

By quantifying key life history parameters in populations, such as growth rate, longevity, and generation time, researchers and administrators can obtain valuable insights into its dynamics. Although point estimates of demographic parameters have been available since the inception of demography as a scientific discipline, the construction of confidence intervals has typically relied on approximations through series expansions or computationally intensive techniques. This study introduces the first mathematical expression for calculating confidence intervals for the aforementioned life history traits when individuals are unidentifiable and data are presented as a life table. The key finding is the accurate estimation of the confidence interval for r, the instantaneous growth rate, which is tested using Monte Carlo simulations with four arbitrary discrete distributions. In comparison to the bootstrap method, the proposed interval construction method proves more efficient, particularly for experiments with a total offspring size below 400. We discuss handling cases where data are organized in extended life tables or as a matrix of vital rates. We have developed and provided accompanying code to facilitate these computations.

Suggested Citation

  • Hernandez-Suarez, Carlos & Rabinovich, Jorge, 2024. "Exact confidence intervals for population growth rate, longevity and generation time," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 1-9.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:thpobi:v:155:y:2024:i:c:p:1-9
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tpb.2023.11.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Arun Hendi, 2023. "Estimation of confidence intervals for decompositions and other complex demographic estimators," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 49(5), pages 83-108.
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    4. Ernest Lo & Dan Vatnik & Andrea Benedetti & Robert Bourbeau, 2016. "Variance models of the last age interval and their impact on life expectancy at subnational scales," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 35(15), pages 399-454.
    5. Bernard Ycart, 2013. "Fluctuation Analysis: Can Estimates Be Trusted?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(12), pages 1-12, December.
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