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Demography of the endangered North Atlantic right whale

Author

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  • Masami Fujiwara

    (MS34, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)

  • Hal Caswell

    (MS34, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)

Abstract

Northern right whales (Eubalaena glacialis) were formerly abundant in the northwestern Atlantic, but by 1900 they had been hunted to near extinction. After the end of commercial whaling the population was thought to be recovering slowly; however, evidence indicates that it has been declining since about 1990 (ref. 1). There are now fewer than 300 individuals, and the species may already be functionally extinct2,3 owing to demographic stochasticity or the difficulty of females locating mates in the vast Atlantic Ocean (Allee effect4). Using a data set containing over 10,000 sightings of photographically identified individuals we estimated trends in right whale demographic parameters since 1980. Here we construct, using these estimates, matrix population models allowing us to analyse the causes of right whale imperilment. Mortality has increased, especially among mother whales, causing declines in population growth rate, life expectancy and the mean lifetime number of reproductive events between the period 1980–1995. Increased mortality of mother whales can explain the declining population size, suggesting that the population is not doomed to extinction as a result of the Allee effect. An analysis of extinction time shows that demographic stochasticity has only a small effect, but preventing the deaths of only two female right whales per year would increase the population growth rate to replacement level.

Suggested Citation

  • Masami Fujiwara & Hal Caswell, 2001. "Demography of the endangered North Atlantic right whale," Nature, Nature, vol. 414(6863), pages 537-541, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:414:y:2001:i:6863:d:10.1038_35107054
    DOI: 10.1038/35107054
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    Cited by:

    1. Kendall, Bruce E. & Fujiwara, Masami & Diaz-Lopez, Jasmin & Schneider, Sandra & Voigt, Jakob & Wiesner, Sören, 2019. "Persistent problems in the construction of matrix population models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 406(C), pages 33-43.
    2. Barabás, György & Meszéna, Géza & Ostling, Annette, 2014. "Fixed point sensitivity analysis of interacting structured populations," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 97-106.
    3. Zhou, Can & Fujiwara, Masami & Grant, William E., 2013. "Dynamics of a predator–prey interaction with seasonal reproduction and continuous predation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 268(C), pages 25-36.
    4. Chiquet, Ross A. & Ma, Baoling & Ackleh, Azmy S. & Pal, Nabendu & Sidorovskaia, Natalia, 2013. "Demographic analysis of sperm whales using matrix population models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 248(C), pages 71-79.
    5. Bramanti, Lorenzo & Iannelli, Mimmo & Santangelo, Giovanni, 2009. "Mathematical modelling for conservation and management of gorgonians corals: youngs and olds, could they coexist?," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(21), pages 2851-2856.
    6. Hernandez-Suarez, Carlos & Rabinovich, Jorge, 2024. "Exact confidence intervals for population growth rate, longevity and generation time," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 1-9.
    7. Rouby, Etienne & Authier, Matthieu & Cam, Emmanuelle & Siebert, Ursula & Plard, Floriane, 2024. "Addressing temporal trends in survivorship from cross-sectional sampling designs: A modelling framework with applications for megafauna conservation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 490(C).
    8. Mullen, Kaitlyn A. & Peterson, Michael L. & Todd, Sean K., 2013. "Has designating and protecting critical habitat had an impact on endangered North Atlantic right whale ship strike mortality?," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 293-304.
    9. Banks, J.E. & Dick, L.K. & Banks, H.T. & Stark, J.D., 2008. "Time-varying vital rates in ecotoxicology: Selective pesticides and aphid population dynamics," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 210(1), pages 155-160.
    10. Williams, Byron K., 2007. "Optimal management of non-Markovian biological populations," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 200(1), pages 234-242.

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