IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/teinso/v32y2010i3p209-218.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing socially disruptive technological change

Author

Listed:
  • Carlsen, H.
  • Dreborg, K.H.
  • Godman, M.
  • Hansson, S.O.
  • Johansson, L.
  • Wikman-Svahn, P.

Abstract

The co-evolution of society and potentially disruptive technologies makes decision guidance on such technologies difficult. Four basic principles are proposed for such decision guidance. None of the currently available methods satisfies these principles, but some of them contain useful methodological elements that should be integrated in a more satisfactory methodology. The outlines of such a methodology, multiple expertise interaction, are proposed. It combines elements from several previous methodologies, including (1) interdisciplinary groups of experts that assess the potential internal development of a particular technology; (2) external scenarios describing how the surrounding world can develop in ways that are relevant for the technology in question; and (3) a participatory process of convergence seminars, which is tailored to ensure that several alternative future developments are taken seriously into account. In particular, we suggest further development of a bottom-up scenario methodology to capture the co-evolutionary character of socio-technical development paths.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlsen, H. & Dreborg, K.H. & Godman, M. & Hansson, S.O. & Johansson, L. & Wikman-Svahn, P., 2010. "Assessing socially disruptive technological change," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 209-218.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:teinso:v:32:y:2010:i:3:p:209-218
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techsoc.2010.07.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160791X10000503
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techsoc.2010.07.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robinson, John Bridger, 1982. "Energy backcasting A proposed method of policy analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 337-344, December.
    2. von Hippel, Eric, 1976. "The dominant role of users in the scientific instrument innovation process," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 212-239, July.
    3. Hansson, Sven Ove, 2006. "Economic (Ir)Rationality In Risk Analysis," Economics and Philosophy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 231-241, July.
    4. Stefän Einarsson & Marvin Rausand, 1998. "An Approach to Vulnerability Analysis of Complex Industrial Systems," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(5), pages 535-546, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kwon, Heeyeul & Kim, Jieun & Park, Yongtae, 2017. "Applying LSA text mining technique in envisioning social impacts of emerging technologies: The case of drone technology," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 60, pages 15-28.
    2. Hopster, Jeroen, 2021. "What are socially disruptive technologies?," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    3. Al Lily, Abdulrahman Essa & Ismail, Abdelrahim Fathy & Abunasser, Fathi Mohammed & Alhajhoj Alqahtani, Rafdan Hassan, 2020. "Distance education as a response to pandemics: Coronavirus and Arab culture," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    4. Weifeng Jia & Shuo Wang & Yongping Xie & Zifeng Chen & Kaixin Gong, 2022. "Disruptive technology identification of intelligent logistics robots in AIoT industry: Based on attributes and functions analysis," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(3), pages 557-568, May.
    5. He, Yubing & Lin, Ting & Zhang, Si, 2023. "Does complementary technology within an ecosystem affect disruptive innovation? Evidence from Chinese electric vehicle listed firms," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    6. Üzelgün, Mehmet Ali & Pereira, João Rui, 2020. "Beyond the co-production of technology and society: The discursive treatment of technology with regard to near-term and long-term environmental goals," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    7. Nilsson, David & Karpouzoglou, Timos & Wallin, Jörgen & Blomkvist, Pär & Golzar, Farzin & Martin, Viktoria, 2023. "Is on-property heat and greywater recovery a sustainable option? A quantitative and qualitative assessment up to 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    8. Carlsen, Henrik & Johansson, Linda & Wikman-Svahn, Per & Dreborg, Karl Henrik, 2014. "Co-evolutionary scenarios for creative prototyping of future robot systems for civil protection," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 93-100.
    9. Katarzyna Halicka, 2020. "Technology Selection Using the TOPSIS Method," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 14(1), pages 85-96.
    10. Dixon, Tim & Eames, Malcolm & Britnell, Judith & Watson, Georgia Butina & Hunt, Miriam, 2014. "Urban retrofitting: Identifying disruptive and sustaining technologies using performative and foresight techniques," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 131-144.
    11. Amelung, Dorothee & Funke, Joachim, 2013. "Dealing with the uncertainties of climate engineering: Warnings from a psychological complex problem solving perspective," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 32-40.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Isaksson, Olov H.D. & Simeth, Markus & Seifert, Ralf W., 2016. "Knowledge spillovers in the supply chain: Evidence from the high tech sectors," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 699-706.
    2. Thomas Pircher & Conny J. M. Almekinders, 2021. "Making sense of farmers’ demand for seed of root, tuber and banana crops: a systematic review of methods," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 13(5), pages 1285-1301, October.
    3. Habicht, Hagen & Oliveira, Pedro & Shcherbatiuk, Viktoriia, 2012. "User Innovators: When Patients Set Out to Help Themselves and End Up Helping Many," Die Unternehmung - Swiss Journal of Business Research and Practice, Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG, vol. 66(3), pages 277-295.
    4. Pamela D. Morrison & John H. Roberts & Eric von Hippel, 2000. "Determinants of User Innovation and Innovation Sharing in a Local Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(12), pages 1513-1527, December.
    5. Cristiano, Antonelli & Scellato, Giuseppe, 2007. "Complexity and Innovation: Social Interactions and Firm Level Total Factor Productivity," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis LEI & BRICK - Laboratory of Economics of Innovation "Franco Momigliano", Bureau of Research in Innovation, Complexity and Knowledge, Collegio 200709, University of Turin.
    6. Letty, Brigid & Shezi, Zanele & Mudhara, Maxwell, 2012. "An exploration of agricultural grassroots innovation in South Africa and implications for innovation indicator development," MERIT Working Papers 2012-023, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    7. Hötte, Kerstin, 2023. "Demand-pull, technology-push, and the direction of technological change," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(5).
    8. repec:cup:judgdm:v:11:y:2016:i:2:p:147-167 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Mathew, Nanditha & Paily, George, 2020. "STI-DUI innovation modes and firm performance in the Indian capital goods industry: Do small firms differ from large ones?," MERIT Working Papers 2020-008, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    10. Claudio Fassio & Sona Kalantaryan & Alessandra Venturini, 2020. "Foreign Human Capital and Total Factor Productivity: A Sectoral Approach," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 66(3), pages 613-646, September.
    11. Rodriguez, Mercedes & Doloreux, David & Shearmur, Richard, 2017. "Variety in external knowledge sourcing and innovation novelty: Evidence from the KIBS sector in Spain," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 35-43.
    12. Carlsen, Henrik & Johansson, Linda & Wikman-Svahn, Per & Dreborg, Karl Henrik, 2014. "Co-evolutionary scenarios for creative prototyping of future robot systems for civil protection," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 93-100.
    13. Guillermo Arenas Díaz & Andrés Barge-Gil & Joost Heijs & Alberto Marzucchi, 2022. "The Effect of External Innovation on Firm Employment," DISCE - Quaderni del Dipartimento di Politica Economica dipe0026, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    14. Sophia Belghiti-Mahut & Anne-Laurence Lafont & Angélique Rodhain & Florence Rodhain & Leila Temri & Ouidad Yousfi, 2016. "Genre et innovateur frugal : 4 cas de femmes innovatrices," Innovations, De Boeck Université, vol. 0(3), pages 69-93.
    15. Tietze, Frank & Pieper, Thorsten & Herstatt, Cornelius, 2013. "To own or not to own: How ownership affects user innovation - An empirical study in the German rowing community," Working Papers 73, Hamburg University of Technology (TUHH), Institute for Technology and Innovation Management.
    16. Befort, N., 2020. "Going beyond definitions to understand tensions within the bioeconomy: The contribution of sociotechnical regimes to contested fields," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    17. Matt, M. & Colinet, L. & Gaunand, A. & Joly, P.B., 2015. "A typology of impact pathways generated by a public agricultural research organization," Working Papers 2015-03, Grenoble Applied Economics Laboratory (GAEL).
    18. Alexander Brem & Volker Bilgram & Adele Gutstein, 2021. "Involving Lead Users in Innovation: A Structured Summary of Research on the Lead User Method," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Alexander Brem (ed.), Emerging Issues and Trends in INNOVATION AND TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT, chapter 2, pages 21-48, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    19. Antonelli, Cristiano & Gehringer, Agnieszka, 2015. "Knowledge externalities and demand pull: The European evidence," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 608-631.
    20. Nicolas Rossignol & Pierre Delvenne & Catrinel Turcanu, 2015. "Rethinking Vulnerability Analysis and Governance with Emphasis on a Participatory Approach," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(1), pages 129-141, January.
    21. De Marchi, Valentina, 2012. "Environmental innovation and R&D cooperation: Empirical evidence from Spanish manufacturing firms," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 614-623.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:teinso:v:32:y:2010:i:3:p:209-218. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/technology-in-society .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.