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Downscaling long term socio-economic scenarios at city scale: A case study on Paris

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  • Viguié, Vincent
  • Hallegatte, Stéphane
  • Rozenberg, Julie

Abstract

The NEDUM-2D model is used to downscale four global socio-economic scenarios at city scale and simulate the evolution of the Paris urban area between 1900 and 2100. It is based on a dynamic extension of the classical urban economic theory, to explain the spatial distribution of land and real estate values, dwelling surfaces, population density and building heights and density. A validation over the 1900–2010 period shows that the model reproduces available data and captures the main determinants of city shape evolution. From four global scenarios and additional local inputs, 32 local scenarios are created and analyzed.

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  • Viguié, Vincent & Hallegatte, Stéphane & Rozenberg, Julie, 2014. "Downscaling long term socio-economic scenarios at city scale: A case study on Paris," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 305-324.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:87:y:2014:i:c:p:305-324
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.12.028
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    4. McDermott, T.K.J. & Surminski, S., 2018. "Normative interpretations of climate risk assessment and how it affects local decision making – a study at the city scale in Cork, Ireland," Working Papers 309607, National University of Ireland, Galway, Socio-Economic Marine Research Unit.
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    6. Lomborg, Bjorn, 2020. "Welfare in the 21st century: Increasing development, reducing inequality, the impact of climate change, and the cost of climate policies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    7. Viguie, V. & Hallegatte, S., 2014. "Urban infrastructure investment and rent-capture potentials," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7067, The World Bank.
    8. Giovanni Matteo & Pierfrancesco Nardi & Stefano Grego & Caterina Guidi, 2018. "Bibliometric analysis of Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment research," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 508-516, December.
    9. Kılkış, Şiir, 2022. "Urban emissions and land use efficiency scenarios towards effective climate mitigation in urban systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
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    12. Coulombel, Nicolas, 2018. "Why housing and transport costs should always be considered together: A monocentric analysis of prudential measures in housing access," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 89-105.
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