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Oil shale and climate policy in the shift to a low carbon and more resilient economy

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  • Pasqualini, D.
  • Bassi, A.M.

Abstract

Policy makers worldwide are recently debating options to implement an effective climate policy that would put a cap on green house gas emissions. At the same time, investors are carefully evaluating the profitability of unconventional fossil fuels such as shale oil. To enhance the understanding of the impacts of a climate policy such as the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009, on oil shale production – and vice versa – we have customized an integrated assessment model, the Climate and Energy Assessment for Resiliency model for Unconventional Fossil Fuels to the U.S. Western Energy Corridor. Our analysis indicates that while the bill would increase the production cost of oil shale, the industry remains highly profitable in the longer-term, generating a potential profit of about $10 to $16 billion per year by 2040 at 2.5million barrels per day. These results suggest that the oil shale industry may comfortably face the enactment of a carbon policy, albeit with some caveats. Furthermore, while its potential economic impact on non-compliant industries may be severe, it would generate mounting profits for those achieving energy efficiency gains, thereby increasing the profitability of energy efficiency investments.

Suggested Citation

  • Pasqualini, D. & Bassi, A.M., 2014. "Oil shale and climate policy in the shift to a low carbon and more resilient economy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 168-176.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:86:y:2014:i:c:p:168-176
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.08.018
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cleveland, Cutler J., 2005. "Net energy from the extraction of oil and gas in the United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 769-782.
    2. Rubin, Edward S. & Chen, Chao & Rao, Anand B., 2007. "Cost and performance of fossil fuel power plants with CO2 capture and storage," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 4444-4454, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Plantec, Quentin & Le Masson, Pascal & Weil, Benoît, 2021. "Impact of knowledge search practices on the originality of inventions: A study in the oil & gas industry through dynamic patent analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    2. Wang, Chao & Liu, Bo & Mohammadi, Mohammad-Reza & Fu, Li & Fattahi, Elham & Motra, Hem Bahadur & Hazra, Bodhisatwa & Hemmati-Sarapardeh, Abdolhossein & Ostadhassan, Mehdi, 2024. "Integrating experimental study and intelligent modeling of pore evolution in the Bakken during simulated thermal progression for CO2 storage goals," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 359(C).
    3. Federica Cappelli & Giovanni Carnazza, 2025. "Close ties: how trade dynamics and environmental regulations shape international dependence on oil," SEEDS Working Papers 0125, SEEDS, Sustainability Environmental Economics and Dynamics Studies, revised Jan 2025.

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