IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v84y2014icp171-185.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Delphi path simulator for unveiling development opportunities in the forest industries by contrasting forest management practices — The case of North Karelia

Author

Listed:
  • Lehtonen, Olli
  • Tykkyläinen, Markku

Abstract

This paper investigates how uneven-aged forest management practice could supply roundwood under different demand conditions in North Karelia in Finland. Four alternative development paths for the forest industries were estimated by means of the Delphi method combining past development in forest industries with expert visions of industrial restructuring and future final demand. The results of a single-tree forest simulator were used to indicate local opportunities for the supply of roundwood, and the demand for roundwood was estimated via the resource matrix of the input–output model for each alternative development path. The study reveals that both even-aged and uneven-aged forest management would be technically possible in order to satisfy the mills' demand for wood in the tested instances. Further research is recommended to compare the profitability of alternative production technology chains and to carry out a geospatial supply and demand analysis for wood, which would fine-tune the results locally.

Suggested Citation

  • Lehtonen, Olli & Tykkyläinen, Markku, 2014. "Delphi path simulator for unveiling development opportunities in the forest industries by contrasting forest management practices — The case of North Karelia," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 171-185.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:84:y:2014:i:c:p:171-185
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.08.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004016251300173X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.08.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard R. Nelson & Sidney G. Winter, 2002. "Evolutionary Theorizing in Economics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 23-46, Spring.
    2. Aslani, Alireza & Naaranoja, Marja & Wong, Kau-Fui V., 2013. "Strategic analysis of diffusion of renewable energy in the Nordic countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 497-505.
    3. Kuusi, Osmo, 1999. "Expertise in the Future Use of Generic Technologies," Research Reports 59, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Rimmler, Thomas & Kurttila, Mikko & Pesonen, Mauno & Koljonen, Kauko, 2000. "Economic impacts of alternative timber-cutting scenarios in Finland: an input-output analysis," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 301-313, December.
    5. Ron Martin & Peter Sunley, 2006. "Path dependence and regional economic evolution," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(4), pages 395-437, August.
    6. Mingers, John & White, Leroy, 2010. "A review of the recent contribution of systems thinking to operational research and management science," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 207(3), pages 1147-1161, December.
    7. Felipe, Jesus & Kumar, Utsav & Abdon, Arnelyn & Bacate, Marife, 2012. "Product complexity and economic development," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 36-68.
    8. Karikallio, Hanna & Mäki-Fränti, Petri & Suhonen, Niko, 2011. "Competition in the global pulp and paper industries - An evaluation based on three approaches," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 91-104, January.
    9. Bjørn T. Asheim, 2007. "Industrial Districts as ‘Learning Regions’: A Condition for Prosperity," Chapters, in: Roel Rutten & Frans Boekema (ed.), The Learning Region, chapter 4, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Li, N. & Toppinen, A., 2011. "Corporate responsibility and sustainable competitive advantage in forest-based industry: Complementary or conflicting goals?," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 113-123.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Heiskanen, Aleksi & Hurmekoski, Elias & Toppinen, Anne & Näyhä, Annukka, 2022. "Exploring the unknowns – State of the art in qualitative forest-based sector foresight research," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    2. Mauno, Tuomas & Catelo, Fellice & Bengston, David N. & Pykäläinen, Jouni & Hujala, Teppo, 2023. "How to identify and interpret weak signals of change in the forest bioeconomy," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    3. Hurmekoski, Elias & Lovrić, Marko & Lovrić, Nataša & Hetemäki, Lauri & Winkel, Georg, 2019. "Frontiers of the forest-based bioeconomy – A European Delphi study," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 86-99.
    4. Jaewoo Kang & Jeongho Choi & Kyoungmin Lee, 2024. "Development of an Evaluation Index for Forest Therapy Environments," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 21(2), pages 1-19, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anna Herzog, 2022. "Imaginaries, directionalities, agency and new path creation [Imaginaries, directionalities, Akteurshandeln und Pfadkreation]," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 42(3), pages 279-307, December.
    2. Balland, Pierre-Alexandre & Broekel, Tom & Diodato, Dario & Giuliani, Elisa & Hausmann, Ricardo & O'Clery, Neave & Rigby, David, 2022. "Reprint of The new paradigm of economic complexity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(8).
    3. Brian Chi-ang Lin & Siqi Zheng & Xiangzheng Deng & Zhan Wang & Chunhong Zhao, 2016. "Economic Evolution In China Ecologically Fragile Regions," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(3), pages 552-576, July.
    4. Tom Kauko, 2014. "Innovation in real estate and evolutionary agendas," ERES eres2014_15, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    5. Wonsub Eum & Jeong‐Dong Lee, 2022. "Alternative paths of diversification for developing countries," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 2336-2355, November.
    6. Pier-Paolo Saviotti & Andreas Pyka¤ & Bogang Jun, 2020. "Diversification, structural change, and economic development," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(5), pages 1301-1335, November.
    7. Andrea Morrison, 2023. "Towards an evolutionary economic geography research agenda to study migration and innovation," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 16(3), pages 529-542.
    8. Markus Steen, 2016. "Reconsidering path creation in economic geography: aspects of agency, temporality and methods," European Planning Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(9), pages 1605-1622, September.
    9. Delphine Guex, Olivier Crevoisier, 2017. "Post-industrial globalization and local milieus: A typology," Diskussionsschriften credresearchpaper15, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft - CRED.
    10. Eum, Wonsub & Lee, Jeong-Dong, 2022. "The co-evolution of production and technological capabilities during industrial development," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 454-469.
    11. Balland, Pierre-Alexandre & Broekel, Tom & Diodato, Dario & Giuliani, Elisa & Hausmann, Ricardo & O'Clery, Neave & Rigby, David, 2022. "The new paradigm of economic complexity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(3).
    12. Vinko Muštra & Blanka Šimundić & Zvonimir Kuliš, 2020. "Does innovation matter for regional labour resilience? The case of EU regions," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 955-970, October.
    13. Wang, Liang & Tan, Justin & Li, Wan, 2018. "The impacts of spatial positioning on regional new venture creation and firm mortality over the industry life cycle," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 41-52.
    14. Ayhan, Fatih & Elal, Onuray, 2023. "The IMPACTS of technological change on employment: Evidence from OECD countries with panel data analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    15. Matthias Firgo & Peter Mayerhofer, 2015. "Wissens-Spillovers und regionale Entwicklung - welche strukturpolitische Ausrichtung optimiert des Wachstum?," Working Paper Reihe der AK Wien - Materialien zu Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft 144, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik.
    16. Yunyao Li & Yanji Ma, 2022. "Research on Industrial Innovation Efficiency and the Influencing Factors of the Old Industrial Base Based on the Lock-In Effect, a Case Study of Jilin Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-23, October.
    17. Naima Chrid & Sami Saafi & Mohamed Chakroun, 2021. "Export Upgrading and Economic Growth: a Panel Cointegration and Causality Analysis," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 12(2), pages 811-841, June.
    18. Sirén, Charlotta & Kohtamäki, Marko, 2016. "Stretching strategic learning to the limit: The interaction between strategic planning and learning," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 653-663.
    19. Pandza, Krsto & Ellwood, Paul, 2013. "Strategic and ethical foundations for responsible innovation," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(5), pages 1112-1125.
    20. Elert, Niklas & Henrekson, Magnus, 2017. "Entrepreneurship and Institutions: A Bidirectional Relationship," Working Paper Series 1153, Research Institute of Industrial Economics, revised 05 May 2017.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:84:y:2014:i:c:p:171-185. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.