IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v81y2014icp177-191.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Decarbonizing road freight in the future — Detailed scenarios of the carbon emissions of Finnish road freight transport in 2030 using a Delphi method approach

Author

Listed:
  • Liimatainen, Heikki
  • Kallionpää, Erika
  • Pöllänen, Markus
  • Stenholm, Pekka
  • Tapio, Petri
  • McKinnon, Alan

Abstract

Research on the future of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of road freight transport in Finland is reported in this paper. Delphi method is utilized to forecast the changes of GDP and seven indicators which determine the CO2 emissions of road freight. Information about the factors affecting the future of these indicators was also collected and an innovative method for acquiring qualitative data in the first round of Delphi study and quantifying it in the second round is presented. Cluster analysis is used to create six scenarios for 2030. The scenarios are mostly driven by different economic developments, which result in very different demand for transport. Despite of this, all scenarios forecast at least 26% reduction in CO2 emissions from 2010 level, while the maximum reduction in one of the scenarios is 74%.

Suggested Citation

  • Liimatainen, Heikki & Kallionpää, Erika & Pöllänen, Markus & Stenholm, Pekka & Tapio, Petri & McKinnon, Alan, 2014. "Decarbonizing road freight in the future — Detailed scenarios of the carbon emissions of Finnish road freight transport in 2030 using a Delphi method approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 177-191.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:81:y:2014:i:c:p:177-191
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.03.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162513000486
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.03.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tobias Meyer & Heiko A. von der Gracht & Evi Hartmann, 2022. "Technology foresight for sustainable road freight transportation: Insights from a global real‐time Delphi study," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(1), March.
    2. Hyun-Seung Kim & Churl-Hee Cho, 2022. "An Economical Boil-Off Gas Management System for LNG Refueling Stations: Evaluation Using Scenario Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-14, November.
    3. Guillermo Ivan Pereira & Patrícia Pereira Silva & Deborah Soule, 2018. "Policy-adaptation for a smarter and more sustainable EU electricity distribution industry: a foresight analysis," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 231-267, December.
    4. Shakeel, Shah Rukh & Takala, Josu & Zhu, Lian-Dong, 2017. "Commercialization of renewable energy technologies: A ladder building approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 855-867.
    5. Shankar, Ravi & Pathak, Devendra Kumar & Choudhary, Devendra, 2019. "Decarbonizing freight transportation: An integrated EFA-TISM approach to model enablers of dedicated freight corridors," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 85-100.
    6. Ariza-Álvarez, Amor & Soria-Lara, Julio A. & Arce-Ruiz, Rosa M. & López-Lambas, María Eugenia & Jimenez-Espada, Montaña, 2021. "Experimenting with scenario-building narratives to integrate land use and transport," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 57-70.
    7. Laguir, Issam & Stekelorum, Rébecca & El Baz, Jamal, 2021. "Proactive environmental strategy and performances of third party logistics providers (TPLs): Investigating the role of eco-control systems," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    8. Li, Weiqi & Dai, Yaping & Ma, Linwei & Hao, Han & Lu, Haiyan & Albinson, Rosemary & Li, Zheng, 2015. "Oil-saving pathways until 2030 for road freight transportation in China based on a cost-optimization model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 369-384.
    9. Schmitz Gonçalves, Daniel Neves & Goes, George Vasconcelos & de Almeida D'Agosto, Márcio & Albergaria de Mello Bandeira, Renata, 2019. "Energy use and emissions scenarios for transport to gauge progress toward national commitments," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    10. Ghazy, Shams & Tang, Yu Hoe & Mugumya, Kevin Luwemba & Wong, Jing Ying & Chan, Andy, 2022. "Future-proofing Klang Valley’s veins with REBET: A framework for directing transportation technologies towards infrastructure resilience," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    11. Melander, Lisa & Dubois, Anna & Hedvall, Klas & Lind, Frida, 2019. "Future goods transport in Sweden 2050: Using a Delphi-based scenario analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 178-189.
    12. Pauget, Bertrand & Tobelem, Jean-Michel & Bootz, Jean-Philippe, 2021. "The future of French museums in 2030," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    13. Lilis Yuaningsih & R. Adjeng Mariana Febrianti & Munawar Javed Ahmad, 2021. "Examining the Factors Affecting CO2 Emissions from Road Transportation in Malaysia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(6), pages 152-159.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:81:y:2014:i:c:p:177-191. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.