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Decarbonizing road freight in the future — Detailed scenarios of the carbon emissions of Finnish road freight transport in 2030 using a Delphi method approach

Author

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  • Liimatainen, Heikki
  • Kallionpää, Erika
  • Pöllänen, Markus
  • Stenholm, Pekka
  • Tapio, Petri
  • McKinnon, Alan

Abstract

Research on the future of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of road freight transport in Finland is reported in this paper. Delphi method is utilized to forecast the changes of GDP and seven indicators which determine the CO2 emissions of road freight. Information about the factors affecting the future of these indicators was also collected and an innovative method for acquiring qualitative data in the first round of Delphi study and quantifying it in the second round is presented. Cluster analysis is used to create six scenarios for 2030. The scenarios are mostly driven by different economic developments, which result in very different demand for transport. Despite of this, all scenarios forecast at least 26% reduction in CO2 emissions from 2010 level, while the maximum reduction in one of the scenarios is 74%.

Suggested Citation

  • Liimatainen, Heikki & Kallionpää, Erika & Pöllänen, Markus & Stenholm, Pekka & Tapio, Petri & McKinnon, Alan, 2014. "Decarbonizing road freight in the future — Detailed scenarios of the carbon emissions of Finnish road freight transport in 2030 using a Delphi method approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 177-191.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:81:y:2014:i:c:p:177-191
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.03.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Tobias Meyer & Heiko A. von der Gracht & Evi Hartmann, 2022. "Technology foresight for sustainable road freight transportation: Insights from a global real‐time Delphi study," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(1), March.
    2. Guillermo Ivan Pereira & Patrícia Pereira Silva & Deborah Soule, 2018. "Policy-adaptation for a smarter and more sustainable EU electricity distribution industry: a foresight analysis," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 231-267, December.
    3. Shankar, Ravi & Pathak, Devendra Kumar & Choudhary, Devendra, 2019. "Decarbonizing freight transportation: An integrated EFA-TISM approach to model enablers of dedicated freight corridors," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 85-100.
    4. Li, Weiqi & Dai, Yaping & Ma, Linwei & Hao, Han & Lu, Haiyan & Albinson, Rosemary & Li, Zheng, 2015. "Oil-saving pathways until 2030 for road freight transportation in China based on a cost-optimization model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 369-384.
    5. Schmitz Gonçalves, Daniel Neves & Goes, George Vasconcelos & de Almeida D'Agosto, Márcio & Albergaria de Mello Bandeira, Renata, 2019. "Energy use and emissions scenarios for transport to gauge progress toward national commitments," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    6. Ghazy, Shams & Tang, Yu Hoe & Mugumya, Kevin Luwemba & Wong, Jing Ying & Chan, Andy, 2022. "Future-proofing Klang Valley’s veins with REBET: A framework for directing transportation technologies towards infrastructure resilience," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    7. Melander, Lisa & Dubois, Anna & Hedvall, Klas & Lind, Frida, 2019. "Future goods transport in Sweden 2050: Using a Delphi-based scenario analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 178-189.
    8. Pauget, Bertrand & Tobelem, Jean-Michel & Bootz, Jean-Philippe, 2021. "The future of French museums in 2030," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    9. Lilis Yuaningsih & R. Adjeng Mariana Febrianti & Munawar Javed Ahmad, 2021. "Examining the Factors Affecting CO2 Emissions from Road Transportation in Malaysia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(6), pages 152-159.
    10. Hyun-Seung Kim & Churl-Hee Cho, 2022. "An Economical Boil-Off Gas Management System for LNG Refueling Stations: Evaluation Using Scenario Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-14, November.
    11. Shakeel, Shah Rukh & Takala, Josu & Zhu, Lian-Dong, 2017. "Commercialization of renewable energy technologies: A ladder building approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 855-867.
    12. Ariza-Álvarez, Amor & Soria-Lara, Julio A. & Arce-Ruiz, Rosa M. & López-Lambas, María Eugenia & Jimenez-Espada, Montaña, 2021. "Experimenting with scenario-building narratives to integrate land use and transport," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 57-70.
    13. Laguir, Issam & Stekelorum, Rébecca & El Baz, Jamal, 2021. "Proactive environmental strategy and performances of third party logistics providers (TPLs): Investigating the role of eco-control systems," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).

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