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Analysis of factors influencing the development of transport infrastructure until the year 2030 — A Delphi based scenario study

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  • Schuckmann, Steffen W.
  • Gnatzy, Tobias
  • Darkow, Inga-Lena
  • von der Gracht, Heiko A.

Abstract

In this paper, we present the findings of a web-based real-time Delphi study concerning the factors which will influence the future development of the transport infrastructure until the year 2030. Intensifying globalization, increased urbanization, ongoing shortages in public finances, and the requirements of a more demanding and growing world population are some of the challenges, which global transport will face. This research identifies, assesses, and integrates long-range developments of various factors, such as supply and demand, financing, competitiveness, and sustainability, which will affect the future of the transport industry and its infrastructure. Results are presented in a final probable scenario, which is divided into four different scenario aspects. Moreover, managerial and governmental implications for strategy and policy development are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Schuckmann, Steffen W. & Gnatzy, Tobias & Darkow, Inga-Lena & von der Gracht, Heiko A., 2012. "Analysis of factors influencing the development of transport infrastructure until the year 2030 — A Delphi based scenario study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(8), pages 1373-1387.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:79:y:2012:i:8:p:1373-1387
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.05.008
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    14. Roßmann, Bernhard & Canzaniello, Angelo & von der Gracht, Heiko & Hartmann, Evi, 2018. "The future and social impact of Big Data Analytics in Supply Chain Management: Results from a Delphi study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 135-149.
    15. Kluge, Ulrike & Ringbeck, Jürgen & Spinler, Stefan, 2020. "Door-to-door travel in 2035 – A Delphi study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    16. Tiberius, Victor & Gojowy, Robin & Dabić, Marina, 2022. "Forecasting the future of robo advisory: A three-stage Delphi study on economic, technological, and societal implications," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    17. Soria-Lara, Julio A. & Ariza-Álvarez, Amor & Aguilera-Benavente, Francisco & Cascajo, Rocío & Arce-Ruiz, Rosa M. & López, Cristina & Gómez-Delgado, Montserrat, 2021. "Participatory visioning for building disruptive future scenarios for transport and land use planning," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    18. Saba, Charles Shaaba, 2021. "Convergence and transition paths in transportation: Fresh insights from a club clustering algorithm," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 80-93.
    19. Ghazy, Shams & Tang, Yu Hoe & Mugumya, Kevin Luwemba & Wong, Jing Ying & Chan, Andy, 2022. "Future-proofing Klang Valley’s veins with REBET: A framework for directing transportation technologies towards infrastructure resilience," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
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    21. Fritschy, Carolin & Spinler, Stefan, 2019. "The impact of autonomous trucks on business models in the automotive and logistics industry–a Delphi-based scenario study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).

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