IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v202y2024ics0040162524000878.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Boosting productive capacity in OECD countries: Unveiling the roles of geopolitical risk and globalization

Author

Listed:
  • Pal, Shreya
  • Mahalik, Mantu Kumar
  • Zhao, Qiuyun
  • Liu, Fan
  • Soliman, Alaa M.

Abstract

This study examines the intertwined effects of geopolitical risk and globalization on productive capacity (the measure of economic cycles) in 20 Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries from 2000 to 2021. The panel threshold regression and Driscoll-Kraay standard error estimations highlight the positive impact of globalization on productive capacity. Still, they are underscored by the negative effect of geopolitical risk. The study also unveils a synergistic relationship, demonstrating that the combined influence of globalization and geopolitical risk can amplify productive capacity under specific conditions. Government effectiveness and innovation have positive effects on productive capacities. These findings underscore the need for balanced policies that leverage global economic integration while ensuring geopolitical stability, and offering nuanced insights to guide strategic decision-making for sustained economic cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Pal, Shreya & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Zhao, Qiuyun & Liu, Fan & Soliman, Alaa M., 2024. "Boosting productive capacity in OECD countries: Unveiling the roles of geopolitical risk and globalization," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:202:y:2024:i:c:s0040162524000878
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123291
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162524000878
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123291?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    2. David Martimort & Wilfried Sand‐Zantman, 2013. "Solving the global warming problem: beyond markets, simple mechanisms may help!," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 46(2), pages 361-378, May.
    3. Yeyati, Eduardo Levy & Panizza, Ugo, 2011. "The elusive costs of sovereign defaults," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 95-105, January.
    4. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    5. Abdulkarim Hasan Rashed & Afzal Shah, 2021. "The role of private sector in the implementation of sustainable development goals," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 2931-2948, March.
    6. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    7. Joakim Westerlund, 2007. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(6), pages 709-748, December.
    8. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A., 2005. "Institutions as a Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 385-472, Elsevier.
    9. Zhang, Yijun & Song, Yi, 2022. "Tax rebates, technological innovation and sustainable development: Evidence from Chinese micro-level data," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    10. Talukdar, Debabrata & Meisner, Craig M., 2001. "Does the Private Sector Help or Hurt the Environment? Evidence from Carbon Dioxide Pollution in Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 827-840, May.
    11. Zheng, Li & Abbasi, Kashif Raza & Salem, Sultan & Irfan, Muhammad & Alvarado, Rafael & Lv, Kangjuan, 2022. "How technological innovation and institutional quality affect sectoral energy consumption in Pakistan? Fresh policy insights from novel econometric approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    12. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
    13. Bhattacharya, Mita & Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa & Paramati, Sudharshan Reddy, 2017. "The dynamic impact of renewable energy and institutions on economic output and CO2 emissions across regions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 157-167.
    14. Sajda Qureshi & Lotfollah Najjar, 2017. "Information and communications technology use and income growth: evidence of the multiplier effect in very small island states," Information Technology for Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 212-234, April.
    15. Taizeng Ren & Muhlis Can & Sudharshan Reddy Paramati & Jianchun Fang & Wanshan Wu, 2019. "The Impact of Tourism Quality on Economic Development and Environment: Evidence from Mediterranean Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-17, April.
    16. Peter Pedroni, 2007. "Social capital, barriers to production and capital shares: implications for the importance of parameter heterogeneity from a nonstationary panel approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 429-451.
    17. Coulibaly, Salifou K. & Erbao, Cao & Metuge Mekongcho, T., 2018. "Economic globalization, entrepreneurship, and development," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 271-280.
    18. Busse, Matthias & Hefeker, Carsten, 2007. "Political risk, institutions and foreign direct investment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 397-415, June.
    19. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    20. Su, Chi-Wei & Qin, Meng & Tao, Ran & Shao, Xue-Feng & Albu, Lucian Liviu & Umar, Muhammad, 2020. "Can Bitcoin hedge the risks of geopolitical events?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    21. Muhammad Khan, 2020. "CO2 emissions and sustainable economic development: New evidence on the role of human capital," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(5), pages 1279-1288, September.
    22. Xiaopeng Guo & Xiaodan Guo, 2016. "A Panel Data Analysis of the Relationship Between Air Pollutant Emissions, Economics, and Industrial Structure of China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(6), pages 1315-1324, June.
    23. Liu, Zhiqiang, 2008. "Foreign direct investment and technology spillovers: Theory and evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 176-193, February.
    24. Shahzad, Umer & Ferraz, Diogo & Nguyen, Huu-Huan & Cui, Lianbiao, 2022. "Investigating the spill overs and connectedness between financial globalization, high-tech industries and environmental footprints: Fresh evidence in context of China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    25. Seo, Myung Hwan & Shin, Yongcheol, 2016. "Dynamic panels with threshold effect and endogeneity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 195(2), pages 169-186.
    26. Jeroen Buysse & Muhlis Can & Giray Gozgor, 2018. "Globalisation outcomes and the real output in the sub-Saharan Africa LICs: a cointegration analysis," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 338-351, January.
    27. Kevin J. Fox & Nicola Brandt & Paul Schreyer & Vera Zipperer, 2017. "Productivity Measurement with Natural Capital," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 63, pages 7-21, February.
    28. Acheampong, Alex O. & Opoku, Eric Evans Osei & Dogah, Kingsley E., 2023. "The political economy of energy transition: The role of globalization and governance in the adoption of clean cooking fuels and technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 186(PB).
    29. Abbasi, Kashif Raza & Hussain, Khadim & Haddad, Akram Masoud & Salman, Asma & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2022. "The role of Financial Development and Technological Innovation towards Sustainable Development in Pakistan: Fresh insights from consumption and territory-based emissions," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    30. Manzoor Ahmad & Zeeshan Khan & Zia Ur Rahman & Shoukat Iqbal Khattak & Zia Ullah Khan, 2021. "Can innovation shocks determine CO2 emissions (CO2e) in the OECD economies? A new perspective," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 89-109, January.
    31. Robi Kurniawan & Shunsuke Managi, 2019. "Linking Wealth and Productivity of Natural Capital for 140 Countries Between 1990 and 2014," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 443-462, January.
    32. Moses Abramovitz, 1956. "Resource and Output Trends in the United States since 1870," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number abra56-1, June.
    33. Bettina Bökemeier & Andreea Stoian, 2018. "Debt Sustainability Issues in Central and East European Countries," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(5), pages 438-470, September.
    34. Wang, Kai-Hua & Umar, Muhammad & Akram, Rabia & Caglar, Ersin, 2021. "Is technological innovation making world "Greener"? An evidence from changing growth story of China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    35. Rodrik, Dani, 2012. "The Globalization Paradox: Why Global Markets, States, and Democracy Can't Coexist," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199652525.
    36. Casson, Mark C. & Della Giusta, Marina & Kambhampati, Uma S., 2010. "Formal and Informal Institutions and Development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 137-141, February.
    37. Yuan, Chaoqing & Liu, Sifeng & Fang, Zhigeng & Wu, Junlong, 2009. "Research on the energy-saving effect of energy policies in China: 1982-2006," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2475-2480, July.
    38. Sakariyahu, Rilwan & Lawal, Rodiat & Etudaiye-Muhtar, Oyebola Fatima & Ajide, Folorunsho Monsuru, 2023. "Reflections on COP27: How do technological innovations and economic freedom affect environmental quality in Africa?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    39. Lin, Shu & Razzaq, Asif & Yi, Kefu, 2023. "Heterogenous influence of productive capacities pillars and natural resources on ecological sustainability in developing Belt and Road host countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    40. Moses Abramovitz, 1956. "Resource and Output Trends in the United States since 1870," NBER Chapters, in: Resource and Output Trends in the United States since 1870, pages 1-23, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. A. P. Thirlwall, 2007. "The least developed countries report, 2006: Developing productive capacities," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(4), pages 766-778.
    42. Mahmood Hajli & Julian M. Sims & Valisher Ibragimov, 2015. "Information technology (IT) productivity paradox in the 21st century," International Journal of Productivity and Performance Management, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 64(4), pages 457-478, April.
    43. Khandaker Jahangir Alam & Khairul Kabir Sumon, 2020. "Causal Relationship between Trade Openness and Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis of Asian Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 118-126.
    44. Zhao, Zuoxiang & Gozgor, Giray & Lau, Marco Chi Keung & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Patel, Gupteswar & Khalfaoui, Rabeh, 2023. "The impact of geopolitical risks on renewable energy demand in OECD countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    45. Jalil, Abdul, 2014. "Energy–growth conundrum in energy exporting and importing countries: Evidence from heterogeneous panel methods robust to cross-sectional dependence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 314-324.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dong, Kangyin & Yang, Senmiao & Wang, Jianda & Nepal, Rabindra & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2024. "Does Geopolitical Risk Accelerate Climate Vulnerability? New Evidence from the European Green Deal," Working Papers 15-2024, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Oluc, Ihsan & Ben Jebli, Mehdi & Can, Muhlis & Guzel, Ihsan & Brusselaers, Jan, 2022. "The Productive Capacity And Environment: Evidence From OECD Countries," MPRA Paper 112590, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Najia Saqib & Haider Mahmood & Aamir Hussain Siddiqui & Muhammad Asif Shamim, 2022. "The Link between Economic Growth and Sustainable Energy in G7-Countries and E7-Countries: Evidence from a Dynamic Panel Threshold Model," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(5), pages 294-302, September.
    3. Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine & Ben Zaied, Younes, 2024. "Understanding the drivers of the renewable energy transition," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 604-612.
    4. Chi, Meiqing & Muhammad, Sulaman & Khan, Zeeshan & Ali, Shahid & Li, Rita Yi Man, 2021. "Is centralization killing innovation? The success story of technological innovation in fiscally decentralized countries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    5. Chen, Chaoyi & Pinar, Mehmet & Stengos, Thanasis, 2020. "Renewable energy consumption and economic growth nexus: Evidence from a threshold model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    6. Lin, Tsung-Xian & Gozgor, Giray & Rather, Kashif Nesar & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2024. "How do natural resource rents and productive capacity affect carbon emissions? Evidence from developed and developing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    7. Lin, Shu & Razzaq, Asif & Yi, Kefu, 2023. "Heterogenous influence of productive capacities pillars and natural resources on ecological sustainability in developing Belt and Road host countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    8. Feng, Yanchao & Sabir, Saeed Ahmad & Quddus, Abdul & Wang, Jianxin & Abbas, Shujaat, 2024. "Do the grey clouds of geopolitical risk and political globalization exacerbate environmental degradation? Evidence from resource-rich countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    9. Angeliki N. Menegaki, 2019. "The ARDL Method in the Energy-Growth Nexus Field; Best Implementation Strategies," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-16, October.
    10. Xin, Yongrong & Ajaz, Tahseen & Shahzad, Mohsin & Luo, Jia, 2023. "How productive capacities influence trade-adjusted resources consumption in China: Testing resource-based EKC," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    11. Saboori, Behnaz & Gholipour, Hassan F. & Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan & Ranjbar, Omid, 2022. "Renewable energy sources and unemployment rate: Evidence from the US states," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    12. Skare, Marinko & Ozturk, Ilhan & Porada-Rochoń, Małgorzata & Stjepanovic, Sasa, 2024. "Energy as the new frontier: Dynamic panel data analysis revealing energy's transformative role in economic growth and technological progress," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    13. Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine & Ben Zaied, Younes & Ben Ameur, Hachmi, 2023. "Recent developments in exchange rate pass-through: What have we learned from uncertain times?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    14. Bakry, Walid & Nghiem, Xuan-Hoa & Farouk, Sherine & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2023. "Does it hurt or help? Revisiting the effects of ICT on economic growth and energy consumption: A nonlinear panel ARDL approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 597-617.
    15. Mbiankeu Nguea, Stéphane & Hervé Kaffo Fotio,, 2024. "Synthesizing the role of biomass energy consumption and human development in achieving environmental sustainability," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    16. Nguyen, Trang Thi Thuy & Pham, Binh Thai & Sala, Hector, 2022. "Being an emerging economy: To what extent do geopolitical risks hamper technology and FDI inflows?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 728-746.
    17. Chen, Limei & Gozgor, Giray & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Pal, Shreya & Rather, Kashif Nesar, 2023. "How does geopolitical risk affect CO2 emissions? The role of natural resource rents," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(PB).
    18. Khan, Qasim Raza & Xinshu, Mao & Qamri, Ghulam Muhammad & Nawaz, Ahmad, 2023. "From COVID to conflict: Understanding the deriving forces of environment and implications for natural resources," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    19. Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine & Ben Zaied, Younes, 2024. "Does geopolitical uncertainty matter for the diffusion of clean energy?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    20. Ostadzad, Ali Hossein, 2022. "Innovation and carbon emissions: Fixed-effects panel threshold model estimation for renewable energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 602-617.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:202:y:2024:i:c:s0040162524000878. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.