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Investigating the diffusion of innovation: A comprehensive study of successive diffusion processes through analysis of search trends, patent records, and academic publications

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  • Takahashi, Carlos Kazunari
  • Figueiredo, Júlio César Bastos de
  • Scornavacca, Eusebio

Abstract

Adapting to market advances gives organizations a competitive advantage in today's business environment. The anticipation of innovation can be crucial to the competitiveness of an industry. This study analyzes and compares different types of innovation diffusion processes. From a global perspective, it examines the diffusion of interest in an innovation as indicated by a search trend, the diffusion of innovation in patents, and the diffusion of innovation in academic publications. It applies the mathematical modeling of Bass to evaluate the diffusion curves. The findings suggest that the takeoff times in the curves are distinct and sequential, indicating the existence of a series of successive diffusion processes. The diffusion curves of innovation-related search interest reach the takeoff first, followed by the diffusion curves of innovation-related patents and academic publications. The present work contributes to the field by (i) extending the use of innovation diffusion theory to the diffusion of interest in an innovation as indicated by a search trend, the diffusion of innovation in patents, and the diffusion of innovation in academic publications; (ii) demonstrating the differences in diffusion curves and takeoff times; and (iii) indicating the existence of a series of successive diffusion processes.

Suggested Citation

  • Takahashi, Carlos Kazunari & Figueiredo, Júlio César Bastos de & Scornavacca, Eusebio, 2024. "Investigating the diffusion of innovation: A comprehensive study of successive diffusion processes through analysis of search trends, patent records, and academic publications," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:198:y:2024:i:c:s0040162523006765
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2023.122991
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