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Predicting post-war US recessions: A probit modelling approach

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  • Alexiou, Constantinos
  • Trachanas, Emmanouil

Abstract

This paper investigates the factors associated with the occurrences of US recessions over the period 1963Q1 to 2018Q2 using multivariate probit models. The evidence suggests that the probability of a recession decreases with higher profitability, as implied by the proponents of the Marxian tradition. Equally significant are the results that relate to manufacturing activity, investment, and inflation. The theoretical argument however, of those who regard the burgeoning growth of private credit as a factor triggering recessions, is not supported by our findings. Finally, interest rates, Tobin's Q, and labour's share of income are not statistically significant, hence implying that the likelihood of these being closely associated with US economic recessions is rather slim.

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  • Alexiou, Constantinos & Trachanas, Emmanouil, 2020. "Predicting post-war US recessions: A probit modelling approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 210-219.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:54:y:2020:i:c:p:210-219
    DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2020.04.009
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    US recessions; Profitability; Probit models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B50 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - General
    • B51 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - Socialist; Marxian; Sraffian
    • D33 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Factor Income Distribution
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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