IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/streco/v53y2020icp1-15.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic development and stagnation in Brazil (1950–2011)

Author

Listed:
  • Nassif, André
  • Morandi, Lucilene
  • Araújo, Eliane
  • Feijó, Carmem

Abstract

Labor productivity growth in Brazil, after showing positive annual rates between 1950 and 1979, became stagnant after 1980. We decompose, calculate and analyze statistical evidence on the Brazilian labor productivity growth in the period 1950–2011, according to “structural change” and “within” components as proposed by McMillan and Rodrik's (2011) methodology. Since it is almost a consensus that the stagnation in the subperiod 1980–1994 is explained by the external debt crisis and chronic inflation rates, we regressed labor productivity growth as well as its two components on several microeconomic and macroeconomic variables in Brazil for the period 1995–2011. The results show that the stagnation of the Brazilian economy in the recent decades is explained by the overvaluation of the Brazilian currency, the reprimarization of the export basket, the low degree of Brazil's trade openness and the high real interest rates prevailing in the period.

Suggested Citation

  • Nassif, André & Morandi, Lucilene & Araújo, Eliane & Feijó, Carmem, 2020. "Economic development and stagnation in Brazil (1950–2011)," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-15.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:53:y:2020:i:c:p:1-15
    DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2020.01.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954349X19301614
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.strueco.2020.01.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Mauricio Mesquita Moreira, 1995. "Industrialization, Trade and Market Failures," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-23698-5, March.
    3. Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira, 2016. "Reflecting on new developmentalism and classical developmentalism," Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Center of Political Economy, vol. 36(2), pages 237-265.
    4. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    5. Dollar, David & Kraay, Aart, 2003. "Institutions, trade, and growth : revisiting the evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3004, The World Bank.
    6. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 365-439.
    7. Marco Bonomo & Cristina Terra, 1999. "The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policy in Brazil: 1964-1997," Research Department Publications 3065, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    8. Rodrik, Dani, 2011. "The Future of Convergence," Scholarly Articles 5131504, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    9. Martin Neil Baily & Barry P. Bosworth, 2014. "US Manufacturing: Understanding Its Past and Its Potential Future," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(1), pages 3-26, Winter.
    10. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 429-438.
    11. Krugman, Paul & Taylor, Lance, 1978. "Contractionary effects of devaluation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 445-456, August.
    12. Ros, Jaime, 2013. "Rethinking Economic Development, Growth, and Institutions," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199684816.
    13. Margaret S. McMillan & Dani Rodrik, 2011. "Globalization, Structural Change and Productivity Growth," NBER Working Papers 17143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Paulo Gala, 2008. "Real exchange rate levels and economic development: theoretical analysis and econometric evidence," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 32(2), pages 273-288, March.
    15. Edwards, Sebastian, 1998. "Openness, Productivity and Growth: What Do We Really Know?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(447), pages 383-398, March.
    16. Marcelo de Paiva Abreu, 2004. "Trade Liberalization and the Political Economy of Protection in Brazil since 1987," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 9376, Inter-American Development Bank.
    17. Giovanni Dosi & Keith Pavitt & Luc Soete, 1990. "The Economics of Technical Change and International Trade," LEM Book Series, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy, number dosietal-1990, November.
    18. Fabrício J. Missio & Frederico G. Jayme Jr. & Gustavo Britto & José Luis Oreiro, 2015. "Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth: New Empirical Evidence," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(4), pages 686-714, November.
    19. Mr. Olivier J Blanchard & Mr. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Mr. Paolo Mauro, 2013. "Rethinking Macro Policy II: Getting Granular," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2013/003, International Monetary Fund.
    20. repec:dgr:rugggd:gd-149 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Chamon, Marcos, 2016. "Two targets, two instruments: Monetary and exchange rate policies in emerging market economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 172-196.
    22. J. S. L. McCombie & A. P. Thirlwall, 1994. "Economic Growth and the Balance-of-Payments Constraint," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-23121-8, March.
    23. Olivier Blanchard & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2010. "Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 199-215, September.
    24. Bonomo, Marco Antonio Cesar & Terra, Maria Cristina Trindade, 1999. "The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policy in Brazil: an Empirical Assessment," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 53(4), October.
    25. André Nassif & Marta R Castilho, 2020. "Trade patterns in a globalised world: Brazil as a case of regressive specialisation," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 44(3), pages 671-701.
    26. André Nassif & Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira & Carmem Feijo, 2018. "The case for reindustrialisation in developing countries: towards the connection between the macroeconomic regime and the industrial policy in Brazil [The economic implications of learning-by-doing," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 42(2), pages 355-381.
    27. Dani Rodrik, 2011. "The future of economic convergence," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 13-52.
    28. Missio, Fabricio & Araujo, Ricardo Azevedo & Jayme, Frederico G., 2017. "Endogenous elasticities and the impact of the real exchange rate on structural economic dynamics," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 67-75.
    29. Dollar, David & Kraay, Aart, 2003. "Institutions, trade, and growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 133-162, January.
    30. Dollar, David, 1992. "Outward-Oriented Developing Economies Really Do Grow More Rapidly: Evidence from 95 LDCs, 1976-1985," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(3), pages 523-544, April.
    31. André Nassif, 2007. "National Innovation System And Macroeconomic Policies: Brazil And India In Comparative Perspective," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 184, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    32. John Williamson, 2009. "Exchange Rate Economics," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 123-146, February.
    33. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    34. Dani Rodrik, 2016. "Premature deindustrialization," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 1-33, March.
    35. Razin,Assaf & Sadka,Efraim (ed.), 1999. "The Economics of Globalization," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521622684, September.
    36. Mr. Andrew Berg & Yanliang Miao, 2010. "The Real Exchange Rate and Growth Revisited: The Washington Consensus Strikes Back?," IMF Working Papers 2010/058, International Monetary Fund.
    37. Mario Cimoli & Gabriel Porcile, 2010. "Specialization, Wage Bargaining And Technology In A Multigoods Growth Model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 219-238, February.
    38. Indermit Gill & Homi Kharas, 2007. "An East Asian Renaissance : Ideas for Economic Growth," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6798.
    39. Jagdish N. Bhagwati, 1978. "Anatomy of Exchange Control Regimes," NBER Chapters, in: Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: Anatomy and Consequences of Exchange Control Regimes, pages 7-52, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    40. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-848, December.
    41. Robert Rowthorn & Ramana Ramaswamy, 1999. "Growth, Trade, and Deindustrialization," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(1), pages 1-2.
    42. Castillo, Mario & Martins, Antonio, 2016. "Premature deindustrialization in Latin America," Desarrollo Productivo 40241, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    43. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Chamon, Marcos, 2016. "Two targets, two instruments: Monetary and exchange rate policies in emerging market economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 172-196.
    44. Olivier J Blanchard & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2013. "Rethinking Macro Policy II; Getting Granular," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 13/03, International Monetary Fund.
    45. Olivier Blanchard & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2010. "Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 199-215, September.
    46. Bonomo, Marco Antônio Cesar & Terra, Maria Cristina T., 1999. "The political economy of exchange rate policy in Brazil: 1964-1999," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 341, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    47. Olivier J Blanchard & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2013. "Rethinking Macro Policy II; Getting Granular," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 13/003, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Doré, Natalia I. & Teixeira, Aurora A.C., 2023. "The role of human capital, structural change, and institutional quality on Brazil's economic growth over the last two hundred years (1822–2019)," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 1-12.
    2. Nikas, A. & Koasidis, K. & Köberle, A.C. & Kourtesi, G. & Doukas, H., 2022. "A comparative study of biodiesel in Brazil and Argentina: An integrated systems of innovation perspective," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    3. Carmem Feijo & Marcos Tostes Lamonica & Sergiany da Silva Lima, 2022. "Growth and stagnation in a dual economy: The case of Brazil," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 75(301), pages 119-138.
    4. Bart van Ark & Dirk Pilat & Klaas de Vries, 2023. "Are Pro-Productivity Policies Fit for Purpose? Productivity Drivers and Policies in G-20 Economies," Working Papers 038, The Productivity Institute.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Feijó, Carmem Aparecida & Araújo, Eliane & Nassif, André, 2017. "A structuralist-Keynesian model for determining the optimum real exchange rate for Brazil’s economic development process: 1999-2015," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    2. Robert A. Blecker, 2022. "New advances and controversies in the framework of balance‐of‐payments‐constrained growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 429-467, April.
    3. Firat Demir & Arslan Razmi, 2022. "The Real Exchange Rate And Development Theory, Evidence, Issues And Challenges," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 386-428, April.
    4. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-72.
    5. Daren Conrad & Jaymieon Jagessar, 2018. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economic Growth: The Case of Trinidad and Tobago," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-23, September.
    6. Amelia U. Santos‐Paulino, 2005. "Trade Liberalisation and Economic Performance: Theory and Evidence for Developing Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(6), pages 783-821, June.
    7. Tarlok Singh, 2010. "Does International Trade Cause Economic Growth? A Survey," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(11), pages 1517-1564, November.
    8. Morvillier, Florian, 2020. "Do currency undervaluations affect the impact of inflation on growth?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 275-292.
    9. Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2015. "Crecimiento económico y desalineación del tipo de cambio real en la República Dominicana: ¿Hay alguna relación? [Economic growth and the real exchange rate misalignments in the Dominican Republic: ," MPRA Paper 70974, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Abdallah, Ali, 2022. "Dépréciation réelle de la monnaie et croissance économique [Can real currency depreciation lead growth?]," MPRA Paper 113183, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Douglas Alencar & Frederico G. Jayme Jr & Gustavo Britto, 2021. "A post-Kaleckian model with productivity growth and real exchange rate applied to selected Latin American countries," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 74(297), pages 127-146.
    12. Samargandi, Nahla & Fidrmuc, Jan & Ghosh, Sugata, 2015. "Is the Relationship Between Financial Development and Economic Growth Monotonic? Evidence from a Sample of Middle-Income Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 66-81.
    13. Missio, Fabricio & Araujo, Ricardo Azevedo & Jayme, Frederico G., 2017. "Endogenous elasticities and the impact of the real exchange rate on structural economic dynamics," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 67-75.
    14. Frenkel, Roberto & Rapetti, Martin, 2014. "The real exchange rate as a target of macroeconomic policy," MPRA Paper 59335, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Florian Morvillier, 2018. "The role of exchange rate undervaluations on the inflation-growth nexus," Working Papers hal-04141804, HAL.
    16. Jinzhao Chen, 2015. "Interprovincial Competitiveness and Economic Growth: Evidence from Chinese Provincial Data (1992–2008)," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 388-414, August.
    17. Florian Morvillier, 2019. "Do currency undervaluations affect the impact of inflation on growth?," Post-Print hal-02138677, HAL.
    18. A. P. Thirlwall, 2013. "Economic Growth in an Open Developing Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 15208.
    19. Zwane, Talent & Biyase, Mduduzi & Binda, Thandolwethu, 2021. "Institutions and Technical Efficiency: A Stochastic Frontier Approach," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 74(4), pages 415-438.
    20. Jinzhao Chen, 2012. "Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth: Evidence from Chinese Provincial Data (1992 - 2008)," PSE Working Papers halshs-00667467, HAL.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:53:y:2020:i:c:p:1-15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/525148 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.