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Trade patterns in a globalised world: Brazil as a case of regressive specialisation

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  • André Nassif
  • Marta R Castilho

Abstract

Globalisation is the extent and intensity with which a country’s production, trade and capital flows are integrated into the world economy. Our focus is on globalisation through international trade. We analyse the main theoretical predictions about the effects of global trade integration on trade patterns between countries of different levels of income and technology and compare this analysis to our investigation of Brazil’s trade integration between 1990 and 2016. Particularly, we investigate whether Brazil’s recent trajectory has been directed to a pattern of regressive specialisation. By regressive specialisation, we refer to that in which both production and export structures are strongly oriented to goods of low technological sophistication and low income elasticity of demand. The recent theoretical literature on technological gaps suggests that when a country enters a rapid pattern of regressive specialisation, a falling-behind trajectory is observed. Our main findings are as follows (i) the technological gap significantly widened for all groups of manufactured goods classified by factor content and technological sophistication; (ii) the income elasticity of demand for Brazilian imports is greater than that for Brazilian exports, implying a falling-behind trajectory of the economy in the past few decades and that growth has been constrained by long-term balance-of-payments equilibrium (Thirlwall’s law); and (iii) there has been a very marked trend of high concentration of Brazilian exports in primary goods, but imports composed of high technologically sophisticated manufactured goods, reinforcing the regressive specialisation of Brazil’s trade pattern in the last decades.

Suggested Citation

  • André Nassif & Marta R Castilho, 2020. "Trade patterns in a globalised world: Brazil as a case of regressive specialisation," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 44(3), pages 671-701.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:cambje:v:44:y:2020:i:3:p:671-701.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/cje/bez069
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    2. Marisa Reis Azevedo Botelho & Graciele Fátima Sousa & Michelle Castro Carrijo & Juliene Barbosa Ferreira & Ariana Cericatto Silva, 2022. "Survival determinants for Brazilian companies, 1996 to 2016," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 49(2), pages 233-266, June.
    3. Cunha, André Moreira & Lélis, Marcos Tadeu Caputi & Haines, Andrés Ernesto Ferrari & Franke, Luciane, 2023. "Exports of manufactured goods and structural change: Brazil in the face of Chinese competition," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-12.
    4. Darmawan, Dwi Putra & Arisena, Gede Mekse Korri & Utami, Ni Wayan Febriana & Krisnandika, Anak Agung Keswari, 2021. "The Dynamics of the Social Network of Urban Farmers in Subak Sembung Denpasar," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 13(2), June.
    5. Zdráhal, Ivo & Hrabálek, Martin & Kadlec, Petr & Krpec, Oldřich, 2021. "Brazil's Comparative Advantages and Specialization Dynamics in Agri-food Trade," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 13(2), June.
    6. Nendissa, Doppy Roy & Anindita, Ratya & Khoiriyah, Nikmatul & Sa’diyah, Ana Arifatus, 2021. "Consumption and Beef Price Changes on Demand in East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 13(2), June.
    7. Eduardo Mantoan & Vinícius Centeno & Carmem Feijo, 2021. "Why has the Brazilian economy stagnated in the 2010s? A Minskyan analysis of the behavior of non-financial companies in a financialized economy," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 529-550, December.
    8. Carlos Bianchi & Fernando Isabella & Anaclara Martinis & Santiago Picasso, 2023. "Varieties of middle-income trap: heterogeneous trajectories and common determinants," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 23-16, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    9. Nassif, André & Morandi, Lucilene & Araújo, Eliane & Feijó, Carmem, 2020. "Economic development and stagnation in Brazil (1950–2011)," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-15.
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    11. Cima, Elizabeth Giron & Freire da Rocha-Junior, Weimar & Uribe-Opazo, Miguel Angel & Dalposso, Gustavo Henrique, 2021. "Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP): Analysis of Agriculture of the State of Paraná-Brazil," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 13(2), June.
    12. Látečková, Anna & Trnková, Michaela, 2021. "Cloud Computing in Agricultural Enterprises in Slovakia," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 13(2), June.
    13. Kudryashova, Ekaterina & Casetti, Michele, 2021. "The Internet of Things - the Nearest Future of Viticulture," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 13(2), June.

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