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Multilevel sequential Monte Carlo samplers

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  • Beskos, Alexandros
  • Jasra, Ajay
  • Law, Kody
  • Tempone, Raul
  • Zhou, Yan

Abstract

In this article we consider the approximation of expectations w.r.t. probability distributions associated to the solution of partial differential equations (PDEs); this scenario appears routinely in Bayesian inverse problems. In practice, one often has to solve the associated PDE numerically, using, for instance finite element methods which depend on the step-size level hL. In addition, the expectation cannot be computed analytically and one often resorts to Monte Carlo methods. In the context of this problem, it is known that the introduction of the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method can reduce the amount of computational effort to estimate expectations, for a given level of error. This is achieved via a telescoping identity associated to a Monte Carlo approximation of a sequence of probability distributions with discretization levels ∞>h0>h1⋯>hL. In many practical problems of interest, one cannot achieve an i.i.d. sampling of the associated sequence and a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) version of the MLMC method is introduced to deal with this problem. It is shown that under appropriate assumptions, the attractive property of a reduction of the amount of computational effort to estimate expectations, for a given level of error, can be maintained within the SMC context. That is, relative to exact sampling and Monte Carlo for the distribution at the finest level hL. The approach is numerically illustrated on a Bayesian inverse problem.

Suggested Citation

  • Beskos, Alexandros & Jasra, Ajay & Law, Kody & Tempone, Raul & Zhou, Yan, 2017. "Multilevel sequential Monte Carlo samplers," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 127(5), pages 1417-1440.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:spapps:v:127:y:2017:i:5:p:1417-1440
    DOI: 10.1016/j.spa.2016.08.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pierre Del Moral & Arnaud Doucet & Ajay Jasra, 2006. "Sequential Monte Carlo samplers," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 68(3), pages 411-436, June.
    2. James Martin & Ajay Jasra & Emma McCoy, 2013. "Inference for a class of partially observed point process models," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 65(3), pages 413-437, June.
    3. Michael B. Giles, 2008. "Multilevel Monte Carlo Path Simulation," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 56(3), pages 607-617, June.
    4. Chang-Han Rhee & Peter W. Glynn, 2015. "Unbiased Estimation with Square Root Convergence for SDE Models," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 63(5), pages 1026-1043, October.
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    Cited by:

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