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Sequential tracking of a hidden Markov chain using point process observations

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  • Bayraktar, Erhan
  • Ludkovski, Michael

Abstract

We study finite horizon optimal switching problems for hidden Markov chain models with point process observations. The controller possesses a finite range of strategies and attempts to track the state of the unobserved state variable using Bayesian updates over the discrete observations. Such a model has applications in economic policy making, staffing under variable demand levels and generalized Poisson disorder problems. We show regularity of the value function and explicitly characterize an optimal strategy. We also provide an efficient numerical scheme and illustrate our results with several computational examples.

Suggested Citation

  • Bayraktar, Erhan & Ludkovski, Michael, 2009. "Sequential tracking of a hidden Markov chain using point process observations," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 119(6), pages 1792-1822, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:spapps:v:119:y:2009:i:6:p:1792-1822
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Arjas, Elja & Haara, Pentti & Norros, Ikka, 1992. "Filtering the histories of a partially observed marked point process," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 225-250, March.
    2. Ceci, Claudia & Gerardi, Anna, 1998. "Partially observed control of a Markov jump process with counting observations: equivalence with the separated problem," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 245-260, November.
    3. Peter Muller & Bruno Sanso & Maria De Iorio, 2004. "Optimal Bayesian Design by Inhomogeneous Markov Chain Simulation," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 99, pages 788-798, January.
    4. Erhan Bayraktar & Savas Dayanik, 2006. "Poisson Disorder Problem with Exponential Penalty for Delay," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 31(2), pages 217-233, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bäuerle Nicole & Gilitschenski Igor & Hanebeck Uwe, 2015. "Exact and approximate hidden Markov chain filters based on discrete observations," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 32(3-4), pages 159-176, December.
    2. Erhan Bayraktar & Michael Ludkovski, 2010. "Inventory management with partially observed nonstationary demand," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 176(1), pages 7-39, April.
    3. Liang, Zhibin & Bayraktar, Erhan, 2014. "Optimal reinsurance and investment with unobservable claim size and intensity," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 156-166.
    4. Pavel V. Gapeev, 2016. "Bayesian Switching Multiple Disorder Problems," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 41(3), pages 1108-1124, August.
    5. Naveed Chehrazi & Peter W. Glynn & Thomas A. Weber, 2019. "Dynamic Credit-Collections Optimization," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(6), pages 2737-2769, June.
    6. Nicole Bauerle & Igor Gilitschenski & Uwe D. Hanebeck, 2014. "Exact and Approximate Hidden Markov Chain Filters Based on Discrete Observations," Papers 1411.0849, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2014.

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