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Does exposure to infectious diseases in infancy affect old-age mortality? Evidence from a pre-industrial population

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  • Gagnon, Alain
  • Mazan, Ryan

Abstract

Many studies have shown that health conditions experienced in childhood play an important role on an individual's adult mortality. Recent research suggests that past reductions in early life exposure to infectious diseases have been a major contributor to the historical decline in old-age mortality. Drawing on French-Canadian data from cohorts born in the 17th and 18th centuries, we test whether a progressive deterioration in early life conditions (as revealed by an increasing infant mortality rate) translates into a decrease in survival prospects in late life. We use traditional demographic measures such as the age-specific probability of death, and a series of proportional hazard models to control for familial and environmental conditions. Results point toward little evidence of any early life effects. The trend of increasing infant mortality does not correlate with a general increase of mortality in older ages within the same cohorts. Period changes affecting survival at older ages (war, epidemics) as well as demographic and biological characteristics shared within families have a much larger role in old-age mortality than early life characteristics shared within the same cohorts.

Suggested Citation

  • Gagnon, Alain & Mazan, Ryan, 2009. "Does exposure to infectious diseases in infancy affect old-age mortality? Evidence from a pre-industrial population," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 68(9), pages 1609-1616, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:socmed:v:68:y:2009:i:9:p:1609-1616
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    2. Hannes Kröger & Rasmus Hoffmann & Lasse Tarkiainen & Pekka Martikainen, 2018. "Comparing Observed and Unobserved Components of Childhood: Evidence From Finnish Register Data on Midlife Mortality From Siblings and Their Parents," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(1), pages 295-318, February.
    3. Quaranta, Luciana, 2014. "Early life effects across the life course: The impact of individually defined exogenous measures of disease exposure on mortality by sex in 19th- and 20th-century Southern Sweden," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 266-273.
    4. Ingrid K. van Dijk & Angelique Janssens & Ken R. Smith, 2019. "The Long Harm of Childhood: Childhood Exposure to Mortality and Subsequent Risk of Adult Mortality in Utah and The Netherlands," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 35(5), pages 851-871, December.
    5. Kai P. Willführ & Charlotte Störmer, 2013. "Reproductive behavior of landless agricultural workers, small farmers, and the economic elite in the historical Krummhörn region [East Frisia, Germany, 1720-1870]," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2013-011, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    6. Matthias Rosenbaum-Feldbrügge, 2019. "The Impact of Parental Death in Childhood on Sons’ and Daughters’ Status Attainment in Young Adulthood in the Netherlands, 1850–1952," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(5), pages 1827-1854, October.
    7. Michael Murphy, 2010. "Reexamining the Dominance of Birth Cohort Effects on Mortality," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(2), pages 365-390, June.
    8. Jonathan F. Fox & Kai P. Willführ & Alain Gagnon & Lisa Y. Dillon & Eckart Voland, 2016. "The consequences of sibling rivalry on survival and reproductive success across different ecological contexts: a comparison of the historical Krummhörn and Quebec populations," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2016-002, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    9. Mikko Myrskylä, 2010. "The effects of shocks in early life mortality on later life expectancy and mortality compression: A cohort analysis," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(12), pages 289-320.
    10. Dong, Hao & Lee, James Z., 2014. "Kinship matters: Long-term mortality consequences of childhood migration, historical evidence from northeast China, 1792–1909," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 274-283.

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