IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/riibaf/v64y2023ics0275531923000053.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Learning risk preferences from investment portfolios using inverse optimization

Author

Listed:
  • Yu, Shi
  • Wang, Haoran
  • Dong, Chaosheng

Abstract

The level of risk an investor can endure, known as risk-preference, is a subjective choice that is tightly related to psychology and behavioral science in decision making. This paper presents a novel approach of measuring risk preference from existing portfolios using inverse optimization on mean–variance portfolio allocation framework. Our approach allows the learner to continuously estimate real-time risk preferences using concurrent observed portfolios and market price data. We demonstrate our methods on robotic investment portfolios and real market data that consists of 20 years of asset pricing and 10 years of mutual fund portfolio holdings. Moreover, the quantified risk preference parameters are validated with two well-known risk measurements currently applied in the field. The proposed methods could lead to practical and fruitful innovations in automated/personalized portfolio management, such as Robo-advising, to augment financial advisors’ decision intelligence in a long-term investment horizon.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu, Shi & Wang, Haoran & Dong, Chaosheng, 2023. "Learning risk preferences from investment portfolios using inverse optimization," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:64:y:2023:i:c:s0275531923000053
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2023.101879
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0275531923000053
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ribaf.2023.101879?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chue, Timothy K., 2002. "Time-varying risk preferences and emerging market co-movements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 1053-1072, December.
    2. Schooley, Diane K. & Worden, Debra Drecnik, 1996. "Risk aversion measures: comparing attitudes and asset allocation," Financial Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 87-99.
    3. Dimitris Bertsimas & Vishal Gupta & Ioannis Ch. Paschalidis, 2012. "Inverse Optimization: A New Perspective on the Black-Litterman Model," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 60(6), pages 1389-1403, December.
    4. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    5. Thomas J. Brennan & Andrew W. Lo, 2011. "The Origin of Behavior," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(01), pages 55-108.
    6. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Lo, Andrew W., 2000. "Nonparametric risk management and implied risk aversion," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 9-51.
    7. Ravindra K. Ahuja & James B. Orlin, 2001. "Inverse Optimization," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 49(5), pages 771-783, October.
    8. Duan Li & Wan‐Lung Ng, 2000. "Optimal Dynamic Portfolio Selection: Multiperiod Mean‐Variance Formulation," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 387-406, July.
    9. Thierry Post & Martijn J. van den Assem & Guido Baltussen & Richard H. Thaler, 2008. "Deal or No Deal? Decision Making under Risk in a Large-Payoff Game Show," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 38-71, March.
    10. Arslan, Ruben C. & Brümmer, Martin & Dohmen, Thomas & Drewelies, Johanna & Hertwig, Ralph & Wagner, Gert G., 2020. "How people know their risk preference," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 10.
    11. Alma Cohen & Liran Einav, 2007. "Estimating Risk Preferences from Deductible Choice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 745-788, June.
    12. Lintner, John, 1969. "The Valuation of Risk Assets and the Selection of Risky Investments in Stock Portfolios and Capital Budgets: A Reply," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 222-224, May.
    13. Luigi Guiso & Monica Paiella, 2008. "Risk Aversion, Wealth, and Background Risk," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(6), pages 1109-1150, December.
    14. Cho, Sungjun, 2014. "What drives stochastic risk aversion?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 44-63.
    15. Guiso, Luigi & Sapienza, Paola & Zingales, Luigi, 2018. "Time varying risk aversion," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(3), pages 403-421.
    16. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    17. Ted O'Donoghue & Jason Somerville, 2018. "Modeling Risk Aversion in Economics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(2), pages 91-114, Spring.
    18. Raj Chetty, 2006. "A New Method of Estimating Risk Aversion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1821-1834, December.
    19. Robert B. Barsky & F. Thomas Juster & Miles S. Kimball & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1997. "Preference Parameters and Behavioral Heterogeneity: An Experimental Approach in the Health and Retirement Study," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(2), pages 537-579.
    20. Szpiro, George G., 1986. "Relative risk aversion around the world," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 19-21.
    21. Demirer, Riza & Yuksel, Asli & Yuksel, Aydin, 2022. "Time-varying risk aversion and currency excess returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    22. Matthew Rabin & Richard H. Thaler, 2013. "Anomalies: Risk aversion," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 27, pages 467-480, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    23. Haoran Wang & Shi Yu, 2021. "Robo-Advising: Enhancing Investment with Inverse Optimization and Deep Reinforcement Learning," Papers 2105.09264, arXiv.org.
    24. Charles A. Holt & Susan K. Laury, 2002. "Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1644-1655, December.
    25. Cohn, Richard A, et al, 1975. "Individual Investor Risk Aversion and Investment Portfolio Composition," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(2), pages 605-620, May.
    26. Jingfeng Lu & Isabelle Perrigne, 2008. "Estimating risk aversion from ascending and sealed-bid auctions: the case of timber auction data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(7), pages 871-896.
    27. Erdemlioglu, Deniz & Joliet, Robert, 2019. "Long-term asset allocation, risk tolerance and market sentiment," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1-19.
    28. Bollen, Nicolas P.B. & Posavac, Steven, 2018. "Gender, risk tolerance, and false consensus in asset allocation recommendations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 304-317.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shi Yu & Haoran Wang & Chaosheng Dong, 2020. "Learning Risk Preferences from Investment Portfolios Using Inverse Optimization," Papers 2010.01687, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    2. Veronica Rappoport & Enrichetta Ravina & Daniel Paravisini, 2010. "Risk Aversion and Wealth: Evidence from Person-to-Person Lending Portfolios," 2010 Meeting Papers 664, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Haoran Wang & Shi Yu, 2021. "Robo-Advising: Enhancing Investment with Inverse Optimization and Deep Reinforcement Learning," Papers 2105.09264, arXiv.org.
    4. Guiso, Luigi & Sodini, Paolo, 2013. "Household Finance: An Emerging Field," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1397-1532, Elsevier.
    5. J. Francois Outreville, 2014. "Risk Aversion, Risk Behavior, and Demand for Insurance: A Survey," Journal of Insurance Issues, Western Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 37(2), pages 158-186.
    6. Daniel Paravisini & Veronica Rappoport & Enrichetta Ravina, 2017. "Risk Aversion and Wealth: Evidence from Person-to-Person Lending Portfolios," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(2), pages 279-297, February.
    7. J. François Outreville, 2015. "The Relationship Between Relative Risk Aversion And The Level Of Education: A Survey And Implications For The Demand For Life Insurance," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 97-111, February.
    8. Kavitha Ranganathan, 2018. "Does Global Shapes Of Utility Functions Matter For Investment Decisions?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(4), pages 341-361, October.
    9. Mark Browne & Verena Jaeger & Petra Steinorth, 2019. "The impact of economic conditions on individual and managerial risk taking," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, Springer;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 44(1), pages 27-53, March.
    10. Mark Browne & Verena Jaeger & Petra Steinorth, 2019. "The impact of economic conditions on individual and managerial risk taking," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 44(1), pages 27-53, March.
    11. Alessandro Bucciol & Raffaele Miniaci, 2011. "Household Portfolios and Implicit Risk Preference," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 1235-1250, November.
    12. Roger Hartley & Gauthier Lanot & Ian Walker, 2014. "Who Really Wants To Be A Millionaire? Estimates Of Risk Aversion From Gameshow Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(6), pages 861-879, September.
    13. Li Donni, P., 2010. "Risk Preference Heterogeneity And Multiple Demand For Insurance," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 10/17, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    14. Khor, Ling Yee & Sariyev, Orkhan & Loos, Tim, 2020. "Gender differences in risk behavior and the link to household effects and individual wealth," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    15. Fred Schroyen & Karl Ove Aarbu, 2018. "Attitudes Towards Large Income Risk in Welfare States: An International Comparison," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 85(340), pages 846-872, October.
    16. Mark J. Browne & Verena Jäger & Andreas Richter & Petra Steinorth, 2022. "Family changes and the willingness to take risks," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 89(1), pages 187-209, March.
    17. Janko Gorter & Paul Schilp, 2012. "Risk preferences over small stakes: Evidence from deductible choice," DNB Working Papers 338, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    18. Goytom Abraha Kahsay & Daniel Osberghaus, 2018. "Storm Damage and Risk Preferences: Panel Evidence from Germany," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 71(1), pages 301-318, September.
    19. Robert Brooks & Robert Faff & Daniel Mulino & Richard Scheelings, 2009. "Deal or No Deal, That is the Question: The Impact of Increasing Stakes and Framing Effects on Decision‐Making under Risk," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 9(1‐2), pages 27-50, March.
    20. Delphine Boutin & Laurène Petifour & Haris Megzari, 2022. "Instability of preferences due to Covid-19 Crisis and emotions: a natural experiment from urban Burkina Faso," Working Papers hal-03623601, HAL.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:64:y:2023:i:c:s0275531923000053. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.