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Predicting firm stock returns with customer stock returns: Moderating effects of customer characteristics

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  • Shi, Jinyan
  • Yu, Conghui
  • Liu, Xiangkun
  • Li, Yanxi

Abstract

Based on the multiple regression model, this study examines the potential predictive effect of customer stock returns to firm stock returns and the moderating effect of diverse customer characteristics on the predictability. By using a sample of Chinese A-share manufacturing firms listed on the Shanghai stock exchange and Shenzhen stock exchange between 2009 and 2017, we find that customer stock returns positively predict firm stock returns in the subsequent month. Additional examinations reveal that the positive predictive effect of customer stock returns on firm stock returns is more intense for firm with high proportion of state-owned customers, customer stability, customer bargaining power and customer concentration than for those with low indicators. Overall, this study contributes to the growing literature on supply chain and predictability of stock returns by shedding light on the forecasting effect of customer stock returns on firm stock returns and the predictive heterogeneity owing to customer characteristics.

Suggested Citation

  • Shi, Jinyan & Yu, Conghui & Liu, Xiangkun & Li, Yanxi, 2020. "Predicting firm stock returns with customer stock returns: Moderating effects of customer characteristics," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:54:y:2020:i:c:s0275531920302129
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2020.101280
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    2. Zhang, Jiping & Mo, Haimiao & Hu, Zhijian & Zhang, Tianjiao, 2024. "The effect of stability and concentration of upstream and downstream relationships of focal firms on two-level trade credit," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    3. Awijen, Haithem & Ben Zaied, Younes & Ben Lahouel, Béchir & Khlifi, Foued, 2023. "Machine learning for US cross-industry return predictability under information uncertainty," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock returns; Return predictability; Customer characteristics; Economic dependence; Bullwhip effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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