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Return predictability in the corporate bond market along the supply chain

Author

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  • Chen, Long
  • Zhang, Gaiyan
  • Zhang, Weina

Abstract

We explore how efficiently new information transmits along the supply chain in the corporate bond market. We find a strong predictability of the lagged bond returns of customers for related firm- and industry-level future bond returns. This is likely due to investors’ inattention to cash flow-related news along the supply chain. Moreover, the lagged bond returns of suppliers only predict the future bond returns of those firms that have less bargaining power. Overall, our results suggest that information along the supply chain travels more gradually in the bond market than the stock market.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Long & Zhang, Gaiyan & Zhang, Weina, 2016. "Return predictability in the corporate bond market along the supply chain," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 66-86.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:29:y:2016:i:c:p:66-86
    DOI: 10.1016/j.finmar.2016.03.005
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    3. Senay Agca & Volodymyr Babich & John R. Birge & Jing Wu, 2022. "Credit Shock Propagation Along Supply Chains: Evidence from the CDS Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(9), pages 6506-6538, September.
    4. Giovanna Culot & Matteo Podrecca & Guido Nassimbeni & Guido Orzes & Marco Sartor, 2023. "Using supply chain databases in academic research: A methodological critique," Journal of Supply Chain Management, Institute for Supply Management, vol. 59(1), pages 3-25, January.
    5. Ali Kabiri & Vlad Malone & Isabelle Roland & Mariana Spatareanu, 2020. "Bank default risk propagation along supply chains: evidence from the UK," CEP Discussion Papers dp1699, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    6. Zhang, Wenlong & Zhang, Gaiyan & Helwege, Jean, 2022. "Cross country linkages and transmission of sovereign risk: Evidence from China’s credit default swaps," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    7. In-Mu Haw & Wenming Wang & Wenlan Zhang & Xu Zhang, 2022. "Capturing the straw in the wind: do short sellers trade on customer information?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1363-1394, May.
    8. Shi, Jinyan & Yu, Conghui & Liu, Xiangkun & Li, Yanxi, 2020. "Predicting firm stock returns with customer stock returns: Moderating effects of customer characteristics," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    9. Kabiri, Ali & Malone, Vlad & Roland, Isabelle Angeline Madeleine & Spatareanu, Mariana, 2020. "Bank default risk propagation along supply chains: evidence from the UK," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121832, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Noh, Joonki & Zhou, Dexin, 2022. "Executives’ Blaming external factors and market reactions: Evidence from earnings conference calls," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    11. Mariana Spatareanu & Vlad Manole & Ali Kabiri & Isabelle Roland, 2021. "Bank Default Risk Propagation along Supply Chains: Evidence from the U.K," Working Papers Rutgers University, Newark 2021-001, Department of Economics, Rutgers University, Newark.
    12. Spatareanu, Mariana & Manole, Vlad & Kabiri, Ali & Roland, Isabelle, 2023. "Bank default risk propagation along supply chains: Evidence from the U.K," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 813-831.
    13. Spatareanu, M. & Manole, V. & Kabiri, A. & Roland, I., 2020. "Bank Default Risk Propagation along Supply Chains: Evidence from the U.K," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2058, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Corporate bonds; Cash flow; Credit risk; Information; Supply chain; Return predictability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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