Profitability of return and sentiment-based investment strategies in US futures markets
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2015.09.007
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Antoniou, Constantinos & Doukas, John A. & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2013. "Cognitive Dissonance, Sentiment, and Momentum," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(1), pages 245-275, February.
- De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990.
"Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-395, June.
- J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1989. "Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," NBER Working Papers 2880, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H. & Waldmann, Robert J., 1990. "Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Scholarly Articles 27693805, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Aaron Tornell & Chunming Yuan, 2012.
"Speculation and hedging in the currency futures markets: Are they informative to the spot exchange rates,"
Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 122-151, February.
- Aaron Tornell & Chunming Yuan, "undated". "Speculation and Hedging in the Currency Futures Markets: Are They Informative to the Spot Exchange Rates," UMBC Economics Department Working Papers 09-116, UMBC Department of Economics, revised 01 Nov 2009.
- Changyun Wang, 2003.
"The behavior and performance of major types of futures traders,"
Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 1-31, January.
- Wang, Changyun, 2001. "The behavior and performance of major types of futures traders," MPRA Paper 36426, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jul 2002.
- repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:3:p:681-96 is not listed on IDEAS
- Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H, 1990.
"The Noise Trader Approach to Finance,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 19-33, Spring.
- Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H., 1990. "The Noise Trader Approach to Finance," Scholarly Articles 33077905, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Lin, J. Barry & Onochie, Joseph I. & Wolf, Avner S., 1999. "Weekday variations in short-term contrarian profits in futures markets," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 139-148.
- Baker, Malcolm & Stein, Jeremy C., 2004.
"Market liquidity as a sentiment indicator,"
Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 271-299, June.
- Malcolm Baker & Jeremy C. Stein, 2002. "Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1977, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Malcolm Baker & Jeremy C. Stein, 2002. "Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator," NBER Working Papers 8816, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Wang, Changyun, 2004. "Futures trading activity and predictable foreign exchange market movements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 1023-1041, May.
- Chun-An Li & Chih-Cheng Yeh, 2011. "Investor Psychological and Behavioral Bias: Do High Sentiment and Momentum Exist in the China Stock Market?," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 14(03), pages 429-448.
- Jacoby, Gady & Liao, Rose C., 2012. "Price discovery and sentiment," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 108-118.
- Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006.
"Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
- Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 10449, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ing-Haw Cheng & Wei Xiong, 2014.
"Why Do Hedgers Trade So Much?,"
The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 43(S2), pages 183-207.
- Ing-Haw Cheng & Wei Xiong, 2013. "Why Do Hedgers Trade So Much?," NBER Working Papers 19670, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barberis, Nicholas & Thaler, Richard, 2003.
"A survey of behavioral finance,"
Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 18, pages 1053-1128,
Elsevier.
- Nicholas Barberis & Richard Thaler, 2002. "A Survey of Behavioral Finance," NBER Working Papers 9222, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kenneth Yung & Yen-Chih Liu, 2009. "Implications of futures trading volume: Hedgers versus speculators," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(5), pages 318-337, December.
- Verma, Rahul & Soydemir, Gökçe, 2009. "The impact of individual and institutional investor sentiment on the market price of risk," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 1129-1145, August.
- J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1989.
"The Size and Incidence of the Losses from Noise Trading,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 681-696, July.
- J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, "undated". "The Size and Incidence of Losses from Noise Trading," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _128, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
- J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1989. "The Size and Incidence of the Losses from Noise Trading," NBER Working Papers 2875, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Summers, Lawrence H. & Waldmann, Robert J. & De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei, 1989. "The Size and Incidence of the Losses from Noise Trading," Scholarly Articles 27693804, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007.
"Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 129-152, Spring.
- Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 13189, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990.
"Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets,"
Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
- J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, "undated". "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _124, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
- De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H. & Waldmann, Robert J., 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Scholarly Articles 3725552, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Changyun Wang, 2003. "Investor sentiment, market timing, and futures returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(12), pages 891-898.
- Lo, Andrew W & MacKinlay, A Craig, 1990.
"When Are Contrarian Profits Due to Stock Market Overreaction?,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 175-205.
- Lo, Andrew W. (Andrew Wen-Chuan) & MacKinlay, Archie Craig, 1955-., 1989. "When are contrarian profits due to stock market overreaction?," Working papers 3008-89., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1989. "When are Contrarian Profits Due to Stock Market Overreaction?," NBER Working Papers 2977, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Parikakis, George S. & Syriopoulos, Theodore, 2008. "Contrarian strategy and overreaction in foreign exchange markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 319-324, September.
- Changyun Wang, 2001.
"Investor Sentiment and Return Predictability in Agricultural Futures Markets,"
Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(10), pages 929-952, October.
- Wang, Changyun, 2000. "Investor sentiment and return predictability in agricultural futures markets," MPRA Paper 36425, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2002.
- Bowman, Robert G. & Iverson, David, 1998. "Short-run overreaction in the New Zealand stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 6(5), pages 475-491, November.
- Chou, Pin-Huang & Wei, K.C. John & Chung, Huimin, 2007. "Sources of contrarian profits in the Japanese stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 261-286, June.
- Basu, Devraj & Miffre, Joëlle, 2013. "Capturing the risk premium of commodity futures: The role of hedging pressure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2652-2664.
- Zhi Da & Qianqiu Liu & Ernst Schaumburg, 2014. "A Closer Look at the Short-Term Return Reversal," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(3), pages 658-674, March.
- Kang, Joseph & Liu, Ming-Hua & Ni, Sophie Xiaoyan, 2002. "Contrarian and momentum strategies in the China stock market: 1993-2000," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 243-265, June.
- Wang, Changyun & Yu, Min, 2004. "Trading activity and price reversals in futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1337-1361, June.
- Changyun Wang, 2002. "Information, Trading Demand, and Futures Price Volatility," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 37(2), pages 295-315, May.
- Bruce N. Lehmann, 1990. "Fads, Martingales, and Market Efficiency," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(1), pages 1-28.
- Miffre, Joelle & Rallis, Georgios, 2007. "Momentum strategies in commodity futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1863-1886, June.
- Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014.
"A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix,"
Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-708, May.
- Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chopra, Navin & Lakonishok, Josef & Ritter, Jay R., 1992. "Measuring abnormal performance : Do stocks overreact?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 235-268, April.
- Sanders, Dwight R. & Irwin, Scott H. & Leuthold, Raymond M., 2003. "The Theory Of Contrary Opinion: A Test Using Sentiment Indices In Futures Markets," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 21(1), pages 1-26.
- Alexander Kurov, 2008. "Investor Sentiment, Trading Behavior and Informational Efficiency in Index Futures Markets," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 43(1), pages 107-127, February.
- Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Miffre, Joëlle & Rallis, Georgios, 2010. "Tactical allocation in commodity futures markets: Combining momentum and term structure signals," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2530-2548, October.
- Abby Kim, 2015. "Does Futures Speculation Destabilize Commodity Markets?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(8), pages 696-714, August.
- Chevallier, Julien & Ielpo, Florian, 2017. "Investigating the leverage effect in commodity markets with a recursive estimation approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 763-778.
- Moskowitz, Tobias J. & Ooi, Yao Hua & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2012. "Time series momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 228-250.
- Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Bahloul, Walid & Bouri, Abdelfettah, 2016. "The impact of investor sentiment on returns and conditional volatility in U.S. futures markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 89-102.
- Ji, Qiang & Bahloul, Walid & Geng, Jiang-Bo & Gupta, Rangan, 2020. "Trading behaviour connectedness across commodity markets: Evidence from the hedgers’ sentiment perspective," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
- Piccoli, Pedro & Chaudhury, Mo & Souza, Alceu, 2017. "How do stocks react to extreme market events? Evidence from Brazil," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 275-284.
- Qiang Ji & Walid Bahloul & Jiang-bo Geng & Rangan Gupta, 2019. "Does Trading Behaviour Converge across Commodity Markets? Evidence from the Perspective of Hedgers’ Sentiment," Working Papers 201930, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Li, Yuze & Jiang, Shangrong & Li, Xuerong & Wang, Shouyang, 2021. "The role of news sentiment in oil futures returns and volatility forecasting: Data-decomposition based deep learning approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
- Diandian Ma & Benfu Lv & Xuerong Li & Xiuting Li & Shuqin Liu, 2023. "Heterogeneous Impacts of Policy Sentiment with Different Themes on Real Estate Market: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-21, January.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Bahloul, Walid & Bouri, Abdelfettah, 2016. "The impact of investor sentiment on returns and conditional volatility in U.S. futures markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 89-102.
- Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, June.
- Bianchi, Robert J. & Drew, Michael E. & Fan, John Hua, 2016. "Commodities momentum: A behavioral perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 133-150.
- Ramiah, Vikash & Xu, Xiaoming & Moosa, Imad A., 2015. "Neoclassical finance, behavioral finance and noise traders: A review and assessment of the literature," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 89-100.
- Kumari, Jyoti, 2019. "Investor sentiment and stock market liquidity: Evidence from an emerging economy," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 166-180.
- Han, Xing & Li, Youwei, 2017.
"Can investor sentiment be a momentum time-series predictor? Evidence from China,"
Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 212-239.
- Han, Xing & Li, Youwei, 2016. "Can Investor Sentiment Be a Momentum Time-Series Predictor? Evidence from China," RIEI Working Papers 2016-07, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, Research Institute for Economic Integration, revised 12 Jan 2017.
- Keunbae Ahn, 2021. "Predictable Fluctuations in the Cross-Section and Time-Series of Asset Prices," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2021, January-A.
- Rakovská, Zuzana, 2021.
"Composite survey sentiment as a predictor of future market returns: Evidence for German equity indices,"
International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 473-495.
- Zuzana Rakovska, 2020. "Composite Survey Sentiment as a Predictor of Future Market Returns: Evidence for German Equity Indices," Working Papers 2020/13, Czech National Bank.
- Jungshik Hur & Vivek Singh, 2016. "Reexamining momentum profits: Underreaction or overreaction to firm-specific information?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 261-289, February.
- Jacobs, Heiko, 2015. "What explains the dynamics of 100 anomalies?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 65-85.
- Saumya Ranjan Dash & Jitendra Mahakud, 2013. "Investor Sentiment and Stock Return: Do Industries Matter?," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 7(3), pages 315-349, August.
- Hannah Lea Hühn & Hendrik Scholz, 2018. "Alpha Momentum and Price Momentum," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-28, May.
- Muhammad Zia Ur Rehman & Zain ul Abidin & Faisal Rizwan & Zaheer Abbas & Sajjad Ahmad Baig, 2017. "How investor sentiments spillover from developed countries to developing countries?," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1309096-130, January.
- Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2022. "Salience theory and the cross-section of stock returns: International and further evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 689-725.
- Gao, Bin & Liu, Xihua, 2020. "Intraday sentiment and market returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 48-62.
- Utku Uygur & Oktay Taş, 2014. "The impacts of investor sentiment on returns and conditional volatility of international stock markets," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1165-1179, May.
- Gric, Zuzana & Bajzík, Josef & Badura, Ondřej, 2023.
"Does sentiment affect stock returns? A meta-analysis across survey-based measures,"
International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
- Zuzana Gric & Josef Bajzik & Ondrej Badura, 2021. "Does Sentiment Affect Stock Returns? A Meta-analysis Across Survey-based Measures," Working Papers 2021/10, Czech National Bank.
- Lee A. Smales, 2016.
"Trading behavior in S&P 500 index futures,"
Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(1), pages 46-55, January.
- Smales, Lee A., 2016. "Trading behavior in S&P 500 index futures," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 46-55.
- Kusen, Alex & Rudolf, Markus, 2019. "Feedback trading: Strategies during day and night with global interconnectedness," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 438-463.
- David C. Ling & Andy Naranjo & Benjamin Scheick, 2014. "Investor Sentiment, Limits to Arbitrage and Private Market Returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 531-577, September.
More about this item
Keywords
Futures markets; Contrarian; Overreaction; Investors sentiment;All these keywords.
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:36:y:2016:i:c:p:254-270. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.