IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reveco/v91y2024icp811-826.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The relationship between cryptocurrencies and convention financial market: Dynamic causality test and time-varying influence

Author

Listed:
  • Huang, Linxian

Abstract

This paper examines the dynamic causal effect of financial markets on cryptocurrencies from a return perspective by applying the dynamic asymmetric causality tests. Applying daily data from February 1, 2018, to August 31, 2023, this paper also investigates whether the major events, such as COVID-19 or the categories of cryptocurrency, will alter or intensify the existing relationship. The empirical result shows that the causal relationship for both symmetric and asymmetric, between traditional financial markets and cryptocurrency is cyclical and only significant in the short term; such a result is robust with the examination of the VAR-based Granger causality test in the presence of instabilities. The pandemic does not influence the causal relationship, and the gold price had the most significant causal impact on cryptocurrency portfolio returns, while the fluctuations in the stock market had a negligible influence and the two indices did not have different causal impacts on the different types of cryptocurrencies. Adding cryptocurrencies to portfolios with only traditional financial assets can significantly reduce risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Huang, Linxian, 2024. "The relationship between cryptocurrencies and convention financial market: Dynamic causality test and time-varying influence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 811-826.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:91:y:2024:i:c:p:811-826
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2024.01.032
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059056024000327
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.iref.2024.01.032?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sifat, Imtiaz, 2021. "On cryptocurrencies as an independent asset class: Long-horizon and COVID-19 pandemic era decoupling from global sentiments," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    2. Rossi, Barbara, 2005. "Optimal Tests For Nested Model Selection With Underlying Parameter Instability," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(5), pages 962-990, October.
    3. Maghyereh, Aktham & Abdoh, Hussein, 2020. "Tail dependence between Bitcoin and financial assets: Evidence from a quantile cross-spectral approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    4. Guo, Dong & Zhou, Peng, 2021. "Green bonds as hedging assets before and after COVID: A comparative study between the US and China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    5. Davidovic, Milivoje, 2021. "From pandemic to financial contagion: High-frequency risk metrics and Bayesian volatility analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    6. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Jana, R.K. & Das, Debojyoti & Roubaud, David, 2018. "Informational efficiency of Bitcoin—An extension," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 106-109.
    7. Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Apergis, Nicholas, 2019. "Determining the predictive power between cryptocurrencies and real time commodity futures: Evidence from quantile causality tests," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 603-616.
    8. Angelo Corelli, 2018. "Cryptocurrencies and Exchange Rates: A Relationship and Causality Analysis," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-11, October.
    9. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Balcilar, Mehmet & Abidin Ozdemir, Zeynel, 2017. "Does oil predict gold? A nonparametric causality-in-quantiles approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 257-265.
    10. Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Lahiani, Amine & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2018. "Testing for asymmetric nonlinear short- and long-run relationships between bitcoin, aggregate commodity and gold prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 224-235.
    11. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    12. Klein, Tony & Pham Thu, Hien & Walther, Thomas, 2018. "Bitcoin is not the New Gold – A comparison of volatility, correlation, and portfolio performance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 105-116.
    13. Koutmos, Dimitrios, 2018. "Return and volatility spillovers among cryptocurrencies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 122-127.
    14. Wang, Gang-Jin & Ma, Xin-yu & Wu, Hao-yu, 2020. "Are stablecoins truly diversifiers, hedges, or safe havens against traditional cryptocurrencies as their name suggests?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    15. Huynh, Toan Luu Duc & Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Nguyen, Thong Trung, 2020. "“Small things matter most”: The spillover effects in the cryptocurrency market and gold as a silver bullet," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    16. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    17. Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Asghar, Nadia & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2020. "Do Islamic indices provide diversification to bitcoin? A time-varying copulas and value at risk application," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    18. Bouri, Elie & Molnár, Peter & Azzi, Georges & Roubaud, David & Hagfors, Lars Ivar, 2017. "On the hedge and safe haven properties of Bitcoin: Is it really more than a diversifier?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 192-198.
    19. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2012. "Asymmetric causality tests with an application," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 447-456, August.
    20. Evans Rozario & Samuel Holt & James West & Shaun Ng, 2020. "A Decade of Evidence of Trend Following Investing in Cryptocurrencies," Papers 2009.12155, arXiv.org.
    21. Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Hedström, Axel, 2018. "Precious metal returns and oil shocks: A time varying connectedness approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 77-89.
    22. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    23. Urquhart, Andrew, 2016. "The inefficiency of Bitcoin," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 80-82.
    24. Bouri, Elie & Saeed, Tareq & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Roubaud, David, 2021. "Quantile connectedness in the cryptocurrency market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    25. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    26. R. Scott Hacker & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2006. "Tests for causality between integrated variables using asymptotic and bootstrap distributions: theory and application," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(13), pages 1489-1500.
    27. Junhuan Zhang & Yuqian Xu & Daniel Houser, 2021. "Vulnerability of scale-free cryptocurrency networks to double-spending attacks," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(12), pages 1235-1249, August.
    28. Ben Khelifa, Soumaya & Guesmi, Khaled & Urom, Christian, 2021. "Exploring the relationship between cryptocurrencies and hedge funds during COVID-19 crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    29. Dwita Mariana, Christy & Ekaputra, Irwan Adi & Husodo, Zaäfri Ananto, 2021. "Are Bitcoin and Ethereum safe-havens for stocks during the COVID-19 pandemic?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    30. Kurka, Josef, 2019. "Do cryptocurrencies and traditional asset classes influence each other?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 38-46.
    31. De Pace, Pierangelo & Rao, Jayant, 2023. "Comovement and instability in cryptocurrency markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 173-200.
    32. Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Vinh Vo, Xuan, 2020. "Cryptocurrencies and precious metals: A closer look from diversification perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    33. Vidal-Tomás, David, 2021. "The entry and exit dynamics of the cryptocurrency market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    34. Bouri, Elie & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Lucey, Brian & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Trading volume and the predictability of return and volatility in the cryptocurrency market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 340-346.
    35. Vidal-Tomás, David & Ibañez, Ana, 2018. "Semi-strong efficiency of Bitcoin," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 259-265.
    36. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    37. Ji, Qiang & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David & Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2019. "Information interdependence among energy, cryptocurrency and major commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1042-1055.
    38. Ji, Qiang & Bouri, Elie & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Dynamic connectedness and integration in cryptocurrency markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 257-272.
    39. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David & Kristoufek, Ladislav & Lucey, Brian, 2019. "Is Bitcoin a better safe-haven investment than gold and commodities?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 322-330.
    40. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2021. "Dynamic Asymmetric Causality Tests with an Application," Papers 2106.07612, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2021.
    41. Hsu, Shu-Han & Sheu, Chwen & Yoon, Jiho, 2021. "Risk spillovers between cryptocurrencies and traditional currencies and gold under different global economic conditions," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    42. Yukun Liu & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2021. "Risks and Returns of Cryptocurrency," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(6), pages 2689-2727.
    43. Sun, Wei & Dedahanov, Alisher Tohirovich & Shin, Ho Young & Li, Wei Ping, 2021. "Factors affecting institutional investors to add crypto-currency to asset portfolios," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    44. Sang Hoon Kang & Seong-Min Yoon & Stelios Bekiros & Gazi S. Uddin, 2020. "Bitcoin as Hedge or Safe Haven: Evidence from Stock, Currency, Bond and Derivatives Markets," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 56(2), pages 529-545, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yu, Xiaoling & Cifuentes-Faura, Javier, 2024. "Information spillover among cryptocurrency and traditional financial assets: Evidence from complex networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 646(C).
    2. Shafique Ur Rehman & Touqeer Ahmad & Wu Dash Desheng & Amirhossein Karamoozian, 2024. "Analyzing selected cryptocurrencies spillover effects on global financial indices: Comparing risk measures using conventional and eGARCH-EVT-Copula approaches," Papers 2407.15766, arXiv.org.
    3. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2024. "Testing for the Asymmetric Optimal Hedge Ratios: With an Application to Bitcoin," Papers 2407.19932, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    4. Mohamed Nihal Saleem & Yianni Doumenis & Epameinondas Katsikas & Javad Izadi & Dimitrios Koufopoulos, 2024. "Decrypting Cryptocurrencies: An Exploration of the Impact on Financial Stability," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-21, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cynthia Weiyi Cai & Rui Xue & Bi Zhou, 2023. "Cryptocurrency puzzles: a comprehensive review and re-introduction," Journal of Accounting Literature, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 46(1), pages 26-50, June.
    2. Aurelio F. Bariviera & Ignasi Merediz‐Solà, 2021. "Where Do We Stand In Cryptocurrencies Economic Research? A Survey Based On Hybrid Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 377-407, April.
    3. Khaki, Audil & Prasad, Mason & Al-Mohamad, Somar & Bakry, Walid & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2023. "Re-evaluating portfolio diversification and design using cryptocurrencies: Are decentralized cryptocurrencies enough?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    4. Ahmed, Mohamed Shaker & El-Masry, Ahmed A. & Al-Maghyereh, Aktham I. & Kumar, Satish, 2024. "Cryptocurrency volatility: A review, synthesis, and research agenda," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    5. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Huseyin & Agan, Busra, 2022. "Effects of COVID-19 on cryptocurrency and emerging market connectedness: Empirical evidence from quantile, frequency, and lasso networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 604(C).
    6. Rehman, Mobeen Ur, 2020. "Do bitcoin and precious metals do any good together? An extreme dependence and risk spillover analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    7. Almeida, José & Gonçalves, Tiago Cruz, 2023. "A systematic literature review of investor behavior in the cryptocurrency markets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    8. Abubakr Naeem, Muhammad & Iqbal, Najaf & Lucey, Brian M. & Karim, Sitara, 2022. "Good versus bad information transmission in the cryptocurrency market: Evidence from high-frequency data," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    9. Ferreira, Paulo & Kristoufek, Ladislav & Pereira, Eder Johnson de Area Leão, 2020. "DCCA and DMCA correlations of cryptocurrency markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 545(C).
    10. Lin, Mei-Yin & An, Che-Lun, 2021. "The relationship between Bitcoin and resource commodity futures: Evidence from NARDL approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    11. Mensi, Walid & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed & Wanas Al-Jarrah, Idries Mohammad & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "Does volatility connectedness across major cryptocurrencies behave the same at different frequencies? A portfolio risk analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 96-113.
    12. Erdinc Akyildirim & Ahmet Goncu & Ahmet Sensoy, 2021. "Prediction of cryptocurrency returns using machine learning," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 297(1), pages 3-36, February.
    13. BRIK, Hatem & El OUAKDI, Jihene & FTITI, Zied, 2022. "Roles of stable versus nonstable cryptocurrencies in Bitcoin market dynamics," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    14. Achraf Ghorbel & Wajdi Frikha & Yasmine Snene Manzli, 2022. "Testing for asymmetric non-linear short- and long-run relationships between crypto-currencies and stock markets," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 12(3), pages 387-425, September.
    15. Helder Miguel Correia Virtuoso Sebastião & Paulo José Osório Rupino Da Cunha & Pedro Manuel Cortesão Godinho, 2021. "Cryptocurrencies and blockchain. Overview and future perspectives," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 21(3), pages 305-342.
    16. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2021. "How do Islamic equity markets respond to good and bad volatility of cryptocurrencies? The case of Bitcoin," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    17. Zhang, Dingxuan & Sun, Yuying & Duan, Hongbo & Hong, Yongmiao & Wang, Shouyang, 2023. "Speculation or currency? Multi-scale analysis of cryptocurrencies—The case of Bitcoin," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    18. Kliber, Agata, 2022. "Looking for a safe haven against American stocks during COVID-19 pandemic," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    19. Raza, Syed Ali & Ahmed, Maiyra & Aloui, Chaker, 2022. "On the asymmetrical connectedness between cryptocurrencies and foreign exchange markets: Evidence from the nonparametric quantile on quantile approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    20. Chkili, Walid & Ben Rejeb, Aymen & Arfaoui, Mongi, 2021. "Does bitcoin provide hedge to Islamic stock markets for pre- and during COVID-19 outbreak? A comparative analysis with gold," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cryptocurrency; Asymmetric causality; COVID-19 pandemic; Portfolio selections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:91:y:2024:i:c:p:811-826. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.