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From pandemic to financial contagion: High-frequency risk metrics and Bayesian volatility analysis

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  • Davidovic, Milivoje

Abstract

This is an event-based study that uses intraday (hourly) log returns to quantify Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) and MCMC stochastic volatility before and during the Covid-19 pandemic (January 2019–June 2020) across the stock, commodity and cryptocurrency markets. The results indicate pandemic-induced risk exposure (expected shortfall), increasing volatility, and stronger cross-market integration. These effects might reduce the potential benefits of cross-market hedging and contribute to a global financial contagion, imposing an additional constraint on both the bank-level risk management strategy and macroprudential policy framework. Thus, the ongoing crisis can be amplified through the global financial spillovers.

Suggested Citation

  • Davidovic, Milivoje, 2021. "From pandemic to financial contagion: High-frequency risk metrics and Bayesian volatility analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:42:y:2021:i:c:s154461232031727x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2020.101913
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Escribano, Ana & Koczar, Monika W. & Jareño, Francisco & Esparcia, Carlos, 2023. "Shock transmission between crude oil prices and stock markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    2. Iyer, Subramanian Rama & Simkins, Betty J., 2022. "COVID-19 and the Economy: Summary of research and future directions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    3. Liu, Yuntong & Wei, Yu & Wang, Qian & Liu, Yi, 2022. "International stock market risk contagion during the COVID-19 pandemic," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    4. Papathanasiou, Spyros & Dokas, Ioannis & Koutsokostas, Drosos, 2022. "Value investing versus other investment strategies: A volatility spillover approach and portfolio hedging strategies for investors," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    5. Katsiampa, Paraskevi & Yarovaya, Larisa & Zięba, Damian, 2022. "High-frequency connectedness between Bitcoin and other top-traded crypto assets during the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    6. Esparcia, Carlos & Jareño, Francisco & Umar, Zaghum, 2022. "Revisiting the safe haven role of Gold across time and frequencies during the COVID-19 pandemic," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    7. Huang, Linxian, 2024. "The relationship between cryptocurrencies and convention financial market: Dynamic causality test and time-varying influence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 811-826.
    8. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Huseyin & Agan, Busra, 2022. "Effects of COVID-19 on cryptocurrency and emerging market connectedness: Empirical evidence from quantile, frequency, and lasso networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 604(C).
    9. Yakup Arı, 2022. "TVP-VAR Based CARR-Volatility Connectedness: Evidence from The Russian-Ukraine Conflict," Journal of Research in Economics, Politics & Finance, Ersan ERSOY, vol. 7(3), pages 590-607.
    10. Zhang, Yi & Zhou, Long & Chen, Yajiao & Liu, Fang, 2022. "The contagion effect of jump risk across Asian stock markets during the Covid-19 pandemic," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19 and Financial Markets; Conditional VaR; MCMC Volatility; JEL Code: G15; G18; G41;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

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