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Exchange rate dynamics with crash risk and interventions

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  • Hui, Cho-Hoi
  • Lo, Chi-Fai
  • Liu, Chi-Hei

Abstract

An exchange rate model with crash risk is developed with the exchange rate confined in a wide moving band. A currency crash occurs when its exchange rate breaches a boundary. Using an asymmetric mean-reverting fundamental shock to incorporate intervention policy in the model, the log-normalised exchange rate follows a mean-reverting square-root process, which generates left-skewed exchange rate distributions consistent with outlier negative returns in carry trades. The exchange rates of nine major currencies against the US dollar can be calibrated according to the model, where the mean reversion in the exchange rate dynamic is negatively cointegrated with the risk reversals.

Suggested Citation

  • Hui, Cho-Hoi & Lo, Chi-Fai & Liu, Chi-Hei, 2022. "Exchange rate dynamics with crash risk and interventions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 18-37.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:79:y:2022:i:c:p:18-37
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2022.01.010
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate dynamics; Currency crashes; Carry trades; Risk reversals; Interventions; Global financial crisis; Covid-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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