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Investor sentiment extracted from internet stock message boards and IPO puzzles

Author

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  • Tsukioka, Yasutomo
  • Yanagi, Junya
  • Takada, Teruko

Abstract

High initial returns and long-run underperformance of initial public offerings (IPOs) represent puzzles in corporate finance. We investigate how investor sentiment affects these puzzles. Investor sentiment on each issuing firm's pre-IPO is extracted from Yahoo! Japan Finance message boards using text mining and a support vector machine classification. Message data on 654 Japanese IPOs from 2001 to 2010 are used to measure investor attention and sentiment. We find that high investor attention and bullish investor sentiment positively affect IPO offer prices and initial returns, leading to subsequent price declines. This suggests that excessive investor optimism can partially explain the IPO puzzles.

Suggested Citation

  • Tsukioka, Yasutomo & Yanagi, Junya & Takada, Teruko, 2018. "Investor sentiment extracted from internet stock message boards and IPO puzzles," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 205-217.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:56:y:2018:i:c:p:205-217
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2017.10.025
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    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Tao & Zhang, Xueyong, 2022. "Industry-level media tone and the cross-section of stock returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 59-77.
    2. Tang, Zhenpeng & Lin, Qiaofeng & Cai, Yi & Chen, Kaijie & Liu, Dinggao, 2024. "Harnessing the power of real-time forum opinion: Unveiling its impact on stock market dynamics using intraday high-frequency data in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    3. Breitmayer, Bastian & Massari, Filippo & Pelster, Matthias, 2019. "Swarm intelligence? Stock opinions of the crowd and stock returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 443-464.
    4. Gao, Yang & Zhao, Kun & Wang, Chao & Liu, Chao, 2020. "The dynamic relationship between internet attention and stock market liquidity: A thermal optimal path method," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 550(C).
    5. Gao, Ya & Xiong, Xiong & Feng, Xu & Li, Youwei & Vigne, Samuel A., 2019. "A new attention proxy and order imbalance: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 411-417.
    6. Wang, Feng & Chai, Wei & Yan, Bin & Shan, Jing & Fan, Wenna, 2022. "Effect of geographical distance between underwriters and listed companies on IPO underpricing: Evidence from China's A-share market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 340-352.
    7. Emna Mnif & Anis Jarboui & M. Kabir Hassan & Khaireddine Mouakhar, 2020. "Big data tools for Islamic financial analysis," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 10-21, January.
    8. Junxiao Gui & Nathee Naktnasukanjn & Xi Yu & Siva Shankar Ramasamy, 2024. "Research on the Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Investor Sentiment on the Growth Enterprise Market Return in China—An Empirical Study Based on TVP-SV-VAR Model," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-20, October.
    9. Long, Wen & Zhao, Manyi & Tang, Yeran, 2021. "Can the Chinese volatility index reflect investor sentiment?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    10. Chiou, Wan-Jiun Paul & Knewtson, Heather S. & Nofsinger, John R., 2019. "Paying attention to social media stocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 106-119.
    11. Long, Wen & Zhong, Yanqiang, 2023. "The neglected cohort: The impact of silent majority in social media on stock returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    12. Sapkota, Niranjan & Grobys, Klaus, 2023. "Fear sells: On the sentiment deceptions and fundraising success of initial coin offerings," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    13. Tsai-Yin Lin & Jerry Yu & Chia-Yi Lin, 2021. "IPO’s Long-Run Performance: Hot Market versus Earnings Management," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-16, March.
    14. Xiaohong Shen & Gaoshan Wang & Yue Wang & Alfred Peris, 2021. "The Influence of Research Reports on Stock Returns: The Mediating Effect of Machine-Learning-Based Investor Sentiment," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2021, pages 1-14, December.
    15. Miwa, Kotaro, 2021. "Language barriers in analyst reports," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 223-236.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investor sentiment; Message board; Text mining; IPO; Investor attention;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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