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Momentum and reversals in Taiwan index futures returns during periods of extreme trading imbalance

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  • Kao, Erin H.

Abstract

The study analyzes the relation between a trading imbalance metric that captures data observable by investors, and future momentum and reversals in Taiwan index futures returns. Standard regression analyses do not show any significant dynamic relations between daily index futures returns and the trading imbalance, regardless of whether the trading imbalance metric is lagged, contemporaneous, or leads the index futures return. However, when the analyses are focused on periods with extreme trading imbalances I find that the daily index futures returns exhibit significant reversals following periods of extreme (low) trading imbalances and low returns. I also find some evidence of residual momentum in consecutive daily index futures returns following periods of extreme (high) trading imbalances and high returns. Trading simulation, directional accuracy, and market timing tests show these effects to be economically significant, even after accounting for transaction costs.

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  • Kao, Erin H., 2011. "Momentum and reversals in Taiwan index futures returns during periods of extreme trading imbalance," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 459-467, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:20:y:2011:i:3:p:459-467
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    Cited by:

    1. Kao, Erin H. & Fung, Hung-Gay, 2012. "Intraday trading activities and volatility in round-the-clock futures markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 195-209.
    2. Muñoz, Fernando & Vargas, María & Vicente, Ruth, 2014. "Fund flow bias in market timing skill. Evidence of the clientele effect," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 257-269.
    3. Atilgan, Yigit & Demirtas, K. Ozgur & Simsek, Koray D., 2016. "Derivative markets in emerging economies: A survey," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 88-102.
    4. Lin, Emily & Lee, Cheng-Few & Wang, Kehluh, 2013. "Futures mispricing, order imbalance, and short-selling constraints," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 408-423.

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