IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/apfiec/v18y2008i18p1489-1499.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic causality between intraday return and order imbalance in NASDAQ speculative top gainers

Author

Listed:
  • YongChern Su
  • HanChing Huang

Abstract

This study explores dynamic conditional and unconditional causality relations between intraday return and order imbalance on extraordinary events. We examine intraday behaviour of NASDAQ speculative top gainers. In this study, we employ a regression model to examine intraday return-order imbalance behaviours. Moreover, we introduce a multiple-hypotheses testing method, namely a nested causality, to identify the dynamic relationship between intraday returns and order imbalances. We find order imbalance convey more information than trading volume does. While examining three intraday time regimes, we find the contemporaneous order imbalance-return effect is significant in the third sub-period, which implies that informed trading will take place in the afternoon. The size-stratified results show there is a negative relation between firm size and the order imbalance-return effect. The impact of the trading volume on the order imbalance-return effect is weaker than that of the firm size. Moreover, the volume-stratified results suggest that order imbalance be a better return predictor in small trading volume quartile and the order imbalance-based trading strategies are useful in the afternoon regime.

Suggested Citation

  • YongChern Su & HanChing Huang, 2008. "Dynamic causality between intraday return and order imbalance in NASDAQ speculative top gainers," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(18), pages 1489-1499.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:18:y:2008:i:18:p:1489-1499
    DOI: 10.1080/09603100701720278
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09603100701720278
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/09603100701720278?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chan, Kalok & Fong, Wai-Ming, 2000. "Trade size, order imbalance, and the volatility-volume relation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 247-273, August.
    2. Guillermo Llorente & Roni Michaely & Gideon Saar & Jiang Wang, 2002. "Dynamic Volume-Return Relation of Individual Stocks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1005-1047.
    3. Yi‐Tsung Lee & Robert C.W. Fok & Yu‐Jane Liu, 2001. "Explaining Intraday Pattern of Trading Volume from the Order Flow Data," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1‐2), pages 199-230, January.
    4. Lee, Charles M. C., 1992. "Earnings news and small traders : An intraday analysis," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2-3), pages 265-302, August.
    5. Brown, Philip & Walsh, David & Yuen, Andrea, 1997. "The interaction between order imbalance and stock price," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 5(5), pages 539-557, December.
    6. Lo, Andrew W & MacKinlay, A Craig, 1990. "When Are Contrarian Profits Due to Stock Market Overreaction?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 175-205.
    7. Michael J. Barclay & Terrence Hendershott & D. Timothy McCormick, 2003. "Competition among Trading Venues: Information and Trading on Electronic Communications Networks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2637-2665, December.
    8. Barclay, Michael J. & Warner, Jerold B., 1993. "Stealth trading and volatility : Which trades move prices?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 281-305, December.
    9. Stoll, Hans R, 1978. "The Supply of Dealer Services in Securities Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(4), pages 1133-1151, September.
    10. Yi‐Tsung Lee & Robert C.W. Fok & Yu‐Jane Liu, 2001. "Explaining Intraday Pattern of Trading Volume from the Order Flow Data," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1‐2), pages 199-230, January.
    11. Feige, Edgar L & Pearce, Douglas K, 1979. "The Casual Causal Relationship between Money and Income: Some Caveats for Time Series Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(4), pages 521-533, November.
    12. repec:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:6:p:2637-2666 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Chen, Chung & Wu, Chunchi, 1999. "The dynamics of dividends, earnings and prices: evidence and implications for dividend smoothing and signaling," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 29-58, January.
    14. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    15. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. "Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-746, June.
    16. Spiegel, Matthew & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1995. "On Intraday Risk Premia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 319-339, March.
    17. Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 109-126, March.
    18. Ho, Thomas S Y & Stoll, Hans R, 1983. "The Dynamics of Dealer Markets under Competition," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(4), pages 1053-1074, September.
    19. Chordia, Tarun & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2004. "Order imbalance and individual stock returns: Theory and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 485-518, June.
    20. Madhavan, Ananth & Smidt, Seymour, 1993. "An Analysis of Changes in Specialist Inventories and Quotations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1595-1628, December.
    21. Cornell, Bradford & Sirri, Erik R, 1992. "The Reaction of Investors and Stock Prices to Insider Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1031-1059, July.
    22. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2002. "Order imbalance, liquidity, and market returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 111-130, July.
    23. Lauterbach, Beni & Ben-Zion, Uri, 1993. "Stock Market Crashes and the Performance of Circuit Breakers: Empirical Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1909-1925, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michael Weigerding & Michael Hanke, 2018. "Drivers of seasonal return patterns in German stocks," Business Research, Springer;German Academic Association for Business Research, vol. 11(1), pages 173-196, February.
    2. Su, Yong-Chern & Huang, Han-Ching & Hsu, Ming-Wei, 2010. "Convergence to market efficiency of top gainers," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 2230-2237, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chordia, Tarun & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2004. "Order imbalance and individual stock returns: Theory and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 485-518, June.
    2. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2008. "Liquidity and market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 249-268, February.
    3. Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2009. "The implications of liquidity and order flows for neoclassical finance," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 527-532, November.
    4. Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2005. "Distinguishing Between Rationales for Short‐Horizon Predictability of Stock Returns," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 11-35, February.
    5. Chordia, Tarun & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2000. "Order Imbalance and Individual Stock Returns," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt34k8f3pv, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    6. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2002. "Order imbalance, liquidity, and market returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 111-130, July.
    7. Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2008. "Lagged order flows and returns: A longer-term perspective," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 623-640, August.
    8. Smales, Lee A., 2013. "Bond futures and order imbalance," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 113-132.
    9. Lee, Yi-Tsung & Liu, Yu-Jane & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2001. "Order Imbalances and Market Efficiency: Evidence from the Taiwan Stock Exchange, Forthcoming in the Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt7w8106qn, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    10. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. repec:uts:finphd:34 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Madhavan, Ananth, 2000. "Market microstructure: A survey," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 205-258, August.
    13. Gus De Franco & Hai Lu & Florin P. Vasvari, 2007. "Wealth Transfer Effects of Analysts' Misleading Behavior," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 71-110, March.
    14. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2000. "Order Imbalance, Liquidity, and Market Returns," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt7gh9t9w3, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    15. Huh, Sahn-Wook & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2004. "Order Flow Patterns around Seasoned Equity Offerings and their Implications for Stock Price Movements," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt6nm0966w, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    16. Jagjeev Dosanjh, 2017. "Exchange Initiatives and Market Efficiency: Evidence from the Australian Securities Exchange," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2017, January-A.
    17. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & O'Hara, Maureen, 1997. "High frequency data in financial markets: Issues and applications," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 73-114, June.
    18. Waël Louhichi, 2010. "Which trades move stock prices on Euronext Paris?," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(6), pages 382-391, February.
    19. Zi Ning & Yiuman Tse, 2009. "Order Imbalance in the FTSE Index Futures Market: Electronic versus Open Outcry Trading," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1‐2), pages 230-252, January.
    20. Li, Mingsheng & McCormick, Timothy & Zhao, Xin, 2005. "Order imbalance and liquidity supply: Evidence from the bubble burst of Nasdaq stocks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 533-555, September.
    21. Nyborg, Kjell G. & Östberg, Per, 2014. "Money and liquidity in financial markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 30-52.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:18:y:2008:i:18:p:1489-1499. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAFE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.