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Forecasting air traffic demand for major infrastructure changes

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  • Solvoll, Gisle
  • Mathisen, Terje Andreas
  • Welde, Morten

Abstract

The paper provides a review of traffic forecasting methods and compares the predictions generated by using different quantitative methods based on a case example from a planned Norwegian airport. The paper focuses particularly on two forecasting methods. The case airport exemplifies how analogies as a forecasting method might be better suited than elasticity methods for studies of major changes in infrastructure. The difference in traffic forecasts will depend on the methodological approach chosen and some generic considerations are given on this topic. In the studied case, we find that the airport project has a negative net present value when the lowest traffic forecasts are used and a positive net present value when the highest traffic forecasts are used. Hence, the inability to draw unambiguous conclusions would be confusing for decision-makers when deciding on whether to build the airport.

Suggested Citation

  • Solvoll, Gisle & Mathisen, Terje Andreas & Welde, Morten, 2020. "Forecasting air traffic demand for major infrastructure changes," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:retrec:v:82:y:2020:i:c:s0739885920300718
    DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2020.100873
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Russo & Giuseppe Fortugno & Marco Merante & Domenica Savia Pellicanò & Maria Rosaria Trecozzi, 2021. "Updating National Air Passenger Demand from Traffic Counts: The Case of a Secondary Airport in an Underdeveloped Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-16, July.
    2. Dinis, Duarte & Barbosa-Póvoa, Ana & Teixeira, Ângelo Palos, 2022. "Enhancing capacity planning through forecasting: An integrated tool for maintenance of complex product systems," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 178-192.
    3. Rafael Bernardo Carmona Benitez & Maria Rosa Nieto, 2023. "A methodology for calculating the unmet passenger demand in the air transportation industry," Papers 23003, Working Papers of Business and Economics School. Anahuac University (Mexico)..

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Airports; Aviation; Forecasting methods; Traffic forecasts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • L93 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Air Transportation

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