IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/respol/v52y2023i7s0048733323000768.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Crowd-based feedback and early-stage entrepreneurial performance: Evidence from a digital platform

Author

Listed:
  • Quignon, Aurelien

Abstract

The ability to identify early-stage venture potential, which has traditionally relied on experts, is challenging because new ideas are uncertain. However, judgment from a large number of evaluators can effectively identify promising ventures. This paper empirically studies whether crowd-based information generates informative feedback for entrepreneurs and seed investors. Using data on 701 early-stage founders of new ventures examined by 2600 evaluators, I estimated the effects of crowd-based ratings on survival and securing seed funds. I find that the crowd rating was uncorrelated with subsequent financing events from seed investors but increased a venture's probability of continuation by 3.1 percentage points. This effect became stronger as the number of evaluators increased. This finding highlights that a judgment aggregation offers information for nascent venture founders.

Suggested Citation

  • Quignon, Aurelien, 2023. "Crowd-based feedback and early-stage entrepreneurial performance: Evidence from a digital platform," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(7).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:respol:v:52:y:2023:i:7:s0048733323000768
    DOI: 10.1016/j.respol.2023.104792
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048733323000768
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.respol.2023.104792?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gustavo Manso, 2011. "Motivating Innovation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(5), pages 1823-1860, October.
    2. Thomas Åstebro & Samir Elhedhli, 2006. "The Effectiveness of Simple Decision Heuristics: Forecasting Commercial Success for Early-Stage Ventures," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(3), pages 395-409, March.
    3. Violina P. Rindova & Antoaneta P. Petkova, 2007. "When Is a New Thing a Good Thing? Technological Change, Product Form Design, and Perceptions of Value for Product Innovations," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(2), pages 217-232, April.
    4. Lingfang (Ivy) Li & Steven Tadelis & Xiaolan Zhou, 2020. "Buying reputation as a signal of quality: Evidence from an online marketplace," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 51(4), pages 965-988, December.
    5. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2010. "The Credibility Revolution in Empirical Economics: How Better Research Design Is Taking the Con out of Econometrics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(2), pages 3-30, Spring.
    6. Josh Lerner & Ulrike Malmendier, 2013. "With a Little Help from My (Random) Friends: Success and Failure in Post-Business School Entrepreneurship," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(10), pages 2411-2452.
    7. Emily Oster, 2019. "Unobservable Selection and Coefficient Stability: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 187-204, April.
    8. Johannes Müller-Trede & Shoham Choshen-Hillel & Meir Barneron & Ilan Yaniv, 2018. "The Wisdom of Crowds in Matters of Taste," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(4), pages 1779-1803, April.
    9. Ewens, Michael & Townsend, Richard R., 2020. "Are early stage investors biased against women?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(3), pages 653-677.
    10. Gilles Chemla & Katrin Tinn, 2020. "Learning Through Crowdfunding," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(5), pages 1783-1801, May.
    11. Marcel Fafchamps & Christopher Woodruff, 2017. "Identifying Gazelles: Expert Panels vs. Surveys as a Means to Identify Firms with Rapid Growth Potential," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 31(3), pages 670-686.
    12. Lyonnet, Victor & Stern, Lea H., 2022. "Venture Capital (Mis)allocation in the Age of AI," Working Paper Series 2022-02, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    13. Ellman, Matthew & Hurkens, Sjaak, 2019. "Optimal crowdfunding design," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    14. Nambisan, Satish & Wright, Mike & Feldman, Maryann, 2019. "The digital transformation of innovation and entrepreneurship: Progress, challenges and key themes," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(8), pages 1-1.
    15. Baum, Joel A. C. & Silverman, Brian S., 2004. "Picking winners or building them? Alliance, intellectual, and human capital as selection criteria in venture financing and performance of biotechnology startups," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 411-436, May.
    16. Bennet A. Zelner, 2009. "Using simulation to interpret results from logit, probit, and other nonlinear models," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(12), pages 1335-1348, December.
    17. Mollick, Ethan, 2014. "The dynamics of crowdfunding: An exploratory study," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16.
    18. Zhuan Pei & Jörn-Steffen Pischke & Hannes Schwandt, 2019. "Poorly Measured Confounders are More Useful on the Left than on the Right," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 205-216, April.
    19. McKenzie, David & Sansone, Dario, 2019. "Predicting entrepreneurial success is hard: Evidence from a business plan competition in Nigeria," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    20. Shai Bernstein & Arthur Korteweg & Kevin Laws, 2017. "Attracting Early-Stage Investors: Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(2), pages 509-538, April.
    21. Paolo Roma & Esther Gal-Or & Rachel R. Chen, 2018. "Reward-Based Crowdfunding Campaigns: Informational Value and Access to Venture Capital," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 29(3), pages 679-697, September.
    22. Robert E. Hall & Susan E. Woodward, 2010. "The Burden of the Nondiversifiable Risk of Entrepreneurship," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 1163-1194, June.
    23. Sandy Yu, 2020. "How Do Accelerators Impact the Performance of High-Technology Ventures?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(2), pages 530-552, February.
    24. Hong Luo & Jeffrey Macher & Michael Wahlen, 2021. "Judgment Aggregation in Creative Production: Evidence from the Movie Industry," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(10), pages 6358-6377, October.
    25. Roma, Paolo & Messeni Petruzzelli, Antonio & Perrone, Giovanni, 2017. "From the crowd to the market: The role of reward-based crowdfunding performance in attracting professional investors," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(9), pages 1606-1628.
    26. Howell, Sabrina T., 2020. "Reducing information frictions in venture capital: The role of new venture competitions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(3), pages 676-694.
    27. Dellarocas, Chrysanthos, 2003. "The Digitization of Word-of-mouth: Promise and Challenges of Online Feedback Mechanisms," Working papers 4296-03, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    28. Franzoni, Chiara & Sauermann, Henry, 2014. "Crowd science: The organization of scientific research in open collaborative projects," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 1-20.
    29. Ajay Agrawal & Christian Catalini & Avi Goldfarb, 2014. "Some Simple Economics of Crowdfunding," Innovation Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(1), pages 63-97.
    30. Huang, Jiekun & Kisgen, Darren J., 2013. "Gender and corporate finance: Are male executives overconfident relative to female executives?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(3), pages 822-839.
    31. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, April.
    32. William R. Kerr & Josh Lerner & Antoinette Schoar, 2014. "The Consequences of Entrepreneurial Finance: Evidence from Angel Financings," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(1), pages 20-55, January.
    33. Imke Reimers & Joel Waldfogel, 2021. "Digitization and Pre-purchase Information: The Causal and Welfare Impacts of Reviews and Crowd Ratings," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(6), pages 1944-1971, June.
    34. Ramana Nanda, 2016. "Financing high-potential entrepreneurship," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 252-252, April.
    35. Roma, Paolo & Vasi, Maria & Kolympiris, Christos, 2021. "On the signaling effect of reward-based crowdfunding: (When) do later stage venture capitalists rely more on the crowd than their peers?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(6).
    36. Ethan Mollick & Ramana Nanda, 2016. "Wisdom or Madness? Comparing Crowds with Expert Evaluation in Funding the Arts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(6), pages 1533-1553, June.
    37. Juanita Gonzalez-Uribe & Michael Leatherbee, 2018. "The Effects of Business Accelerators on Venture Performance: Evidence from Start-Up Chile," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(4), pages 1566-1603.
    38. Antje Schmitt & Kathrin Rosing & Stephen X. Zhang & Michael Leatherbee, 2018. "A Dynamic Model of Entrepreneurial Uncertainty and Business Opportunity Identification: Exploration as a Mediator and Entrepreneurial Self-Efficacy as a Moderator," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 42(6), pages 835-859, November.
    39. Massimo G. Colombo & Kourosh Shafi, 2021. "Receiving external equity following successfully crowdfunded technological projects: an informational mechanism," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1507-1529, April.
    40. Kenneth Arrow, 1962. "Economic Welfare and the Allocation of Resources for Invention," NBER Chapters, in: The Rate and Direction of Inventive Activity: Economic and Social Factors, pages 609-626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. Will Drover & Matthew S. Wood & Andrew Zacharakis, 2017. "Attributes of Angel and Crowdfunded Investments as Determinants of VC Screening Decisions," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 41(3), pages 323-347, May.
    42. Erin L. Scott & Pian Shu & Roman M. Lubynsky, 2020. "Entrepreneurial Uncertainty and Expert Evaluation: An Empirical Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(3), pages 1278-1299, March.
    43. Chrysanthos Dellarocas, 2003. "The Digitization of Word of Mouth: Promise and Challenges of Online Feedback Mechanisms," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(10), pages 1407-1424, October.
    44. Sabrina T Howell, 2021. "Learning from Feedback: Evidence from New Ventures [Large sample properties of matching estimators for average treatment effects]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 25(3), pages 595-627.
    45. Francisco Queiró, 2022. "Entrepreneurial Human Capital and Firm Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(4), pages 2061-2100.
    46. Joshua S. Gans & Scott Stern & Jane Wu, 2019. "Foundations of entrepreneurial strategy," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(5), pages 736-756, May.
    47. Viotto da Cruz, Jordana, 2018. "Beyond financing: crowdfunding as an informational mechanism," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 371-393.
    48. Junfu Zhang, 2011. "The advantage of experienced start-up founders in venture capital acquisition: evidence from serial entrepreneurs," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 187-208, February.
    49. Christoph Riedl & Victor P. Seidel, 2018. "Learning from Mixed Signals in Online Innovation Communities," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(6), pages 1010-1032, December.
    50. Stanko, Michael A. & Henard, David H., 2017. "Toward a better understanding of crowdfunding, openness and the consequences for innovation," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 784-798.
    51. Daniel P. Gross, 2017. "Performance feedback in competitive product development," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 48(2), pages 438-466, May.
    52. Aaron Chatterji & Solène Delecourt & Sharique Hasan & Rembrand Koning, 2019. "When does advice impact startup performance?," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 331-356, March.
    53. Michael Spence, 1973. "Job Market Signaling," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 87(3), pages 355-374.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Roma, Paolo & Vasi, Maria & Kolympiris, Christos, 2021. "On the signaling effect of reward-based crowdfunding: (When) do later stage venture capitalists rely more on the crowd than their peers?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(6).
    2. Xu, Yang & Zhou, Qiang & Wang, Xu, 2023. "Joint price and quality optimization strategy in crowdfunding campaign," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    3. Sewaid, Ahmed & Garcia-Cestona, Miguel & Silaghi, Florina, 2021. "Resolving information asymmetries in financing new product development: The case of reward-based crowdfunding," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(10).
    4. Gonzalez-Uribe, Juanita & Hmaddi, Ouafaa, 2022. "The multi-dimensional impacts of business accelerators: what does the research tell us?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115461, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Roma, Paolo & Messeni Petruzzelli, Antonio & Perrone, Giovanni, 2017. "From the crowd to the market: The role of reward-based crowdfunding performance in attracting professional investors," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(9), pages 1606-1628.
    6. Erin L. Scott & Pian Shu & Roman M. Lubynsky, 2020. "Entrepreneurial Uncertainty and Expert Evaluation: An Empirical Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(3), pages 1278-1299, March.
    7. Yasar, Burze & Sevilay Yılmaz, Işıl & Hatipoğlu, Nurullah & Salih, Aslıhan, 2022. "Stretching the success in reward-based crowdfunding," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 205-220.
    8. Daniel Blaseg & Christian Schulze & Bernd Skiera, 2020. "Consumer Protection on Kickstarter," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(1), pages 211-233, January.
    9. Friedemann Polzin & Helen Toxopeus & Erik Stam, 2018. "The wisdom of the crowd in funding: information heterogeneity and social networks of crowdfunders," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 251-273, February.
    10. Francesca Pietro, 2021. "The rationale for listing on equity crowdfunding: actual and expected benefits for companies," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 48(4), pages 527-549, December.
    11. Kaminski, Jermain & Hopp, Christian & Tykvová, Tereza, 2019. "New technology assessment in entrepreneurial financing – Does crowdfunding predict venture capital investments?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 287-302.
    12. Anglin, Aaron H. & Short, Jeremy C. & Drover, Will & Stevenson, Regan M. & McKenny, Aaron F. & Allison, Thomas H., 2018. "The power of positivity? The influence of positive psychological capital language on crowdfunding performance," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 470-492.
    13. Erin L. Scott & Pian Shu & Roman M. Lubynsky, 2015. "Are “Better” Ideas More Likely to Succeed? An Empirical Analysis of Startup Evaluation," Harvard Business School Working Papers 16-013, Harvard Business School.
    14. Messeni Petruzzelli, Antonio & Natalicchio, Angelo & Panniello, Umberto & Roma, Paolo, 2019. "Understanding the crowdfunding phenomenon and its implications for sustainability," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 138-148.
    15. Tuo Gladys & Yi Feng & Sarpong Solomon & Wang Wenxin, 2020. "The Second Round Resource Acquisition of Entrepreneurial Crowdfunded Ventures: The Relevance of Campaign and Project Implementation Performance Outcomes," Entrepreneurship Research Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-21, July.
    16. Thomas Clauss & Thomas Niemand & Sascha Kraus & Patrick Schnetzer & Alexander Brem, 2019. "Increasing Crowdfunding Success Through Social Media: The Importance Of Reach And Utilisation In Reward-Based Crowdfunding," International Journal of Innovation Management (ijim), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 24(03), pages 1-30, May.
    17. Zunino, Diego & van Praag, Mirjam C. & Dushnitsky, Gary, 2017. "Badge of Honor or Scarlet Letter? Unpacking Investors' Judgment of Entrepreneurs' Past Failure," IZA Discussion Papers 11017, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Lukas Maier & Christian V. Baccarella & Jörn H. Block & Timm F. Wagner & Kai-Ingo Voigt, 2023. "The Legitimization Effect of Crowdfunding Success: A Consumer Perspective," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 47(4), pages 1389-1420, July.
    19. Massimo G. Colombo & Kourosh Shafi, 2021. "Receiving external equity following successfully crowdfunded technological projects: an informational mechanism," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1507-1529, April.
    20. Saul Estrin & Susanna Khavul & Mike Wright, 2022. "Soft and hard information in equity crowdfunding: network effects in the digitalization of entrepreneurial finance," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1761-1781, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crowd rating; Entrepreneurial uncertainty; Feedback; Early-stage ventures;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • L26 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Entrepreneurship
    • M13 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - New Firms; Startups
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:respol:v:52:y:2023:i:7:s0048733323000768. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/respol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.