How the European Union’s and the United States’ anti-dumping duties affect Taiwan's PV industry: A policy simulation

To address continuous increases in global energy demand, countries around the world are developing coping plans that promote the development of renewable energy industries; a major focus of these nations' efforts is the photovoltaic (PV) industry. Since 2014, the European Union (EU) and the United States have imposed anti-dumping duties on PV industries in China and Taiwan. Because the development of the PV industry is affected by relevant government policies, Taiwan is ranked second in the world in PV production, and these duties will undoubtedly affect the future development of Taiwan's PV industry. Thus, PV manufacturers and the Taiwanese government are extremely concerned about the impact of the anti-dumping duties imposed on Taiwan's PV industry. In fact, the development structure of the PV industry is complex and dynamic. In this study, by assessing industry characteristics, the extant literature, and responses from interviews with experts, system dynamics (SD) is used to identify three key loops and explore the structure of the development of Taiwan's PV industry. Finally, trends in production capacity and financial conditions imposed by anti-dumping duties on Taiwan's PV industry are simulated to address the impact that different anti-dumping duty rates could produce. Repeated simulations are conducted to determine the critical rate at which this industry may disappear. In addition, relevant topics are discussed, and viable policy recommendations are proposed.