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Factors affecting the calculation of wind power potentials: A case study of China

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  • Franke, Katja
  • Sensfuß, Frank
  • Deac, Gerda
  • Kleinschmitt, Christoph
  • Ragwitz, Mario

Abstract

In order to mitigate global climate change and air pollution, the Chinese government has assigned high priority to expanding low-carbon power generation in China. Recent studies have shown that wind power is one of the most promising renewable energy option in China. Although many studies have estimated the generation potential of onshore wind power, their results vary widely from 1783 TWh to 39,000 TWh. Therefore, we examine the different assumptions in these papers and identify three main factors influencing the results. The three influencing factors are: weather data set, land utilisation factor, and wind turbine configuration. For our model-based analysis, we define a reference scenario which is used to compare the results. Our analysis shows using a different weather data set increases the generation potential to roughly 35,000 TWh. This is 54% higher than the generation potential of the reference scenario. The land utilisation factor also has a large influence, ranging between −10% and −51%. The studies' assumptions and data should be subjected to careful scrutiny, as the calculated wind power potentials are widely used to develop decarbonisation strategies for the energy system.

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  • Franke, Katja & Sensfuß, Frank & Deac, Gerda & Kleinschmitt, Christoph & Ragwitz, Mario, 2021. "Factors affecting the calculation of wind power potentials: A case study of China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:149:y:2021:i:c:s1364032121006377
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2021.111351
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    Cited by:

    1. Sun, Yanwei & Li, Ying & Wang, Run & Ma, Renfeng, 2023. "Assessing the national synergy potential of onshore and offshore renewable energy from the perspective of resources dynamic and complementarity," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    2. Christopher Jung & Dirk Schindler, 2023. "Reasons for the Recent Onshore Wind Capacity Factor Increase," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-17, July.
    3. Wang, Yadong & Wang, Delu & Shi, Xunpeng, 2023. "Sustainable development pathways of China's wind power industry under uncertainties: Perspective from economic benefits and technical potential," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    4. Wang, Bingqing & Li, Yongping & Huang, Guohe & Gao, Pangpang & Liu, Jing & Wen, Yizhuo, 2023. "Development of an integrated BLSVM-MFA method for analyzing renewable power-generation potential under climate change: A case study of Xiamen," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 337(C).
    5. Liu, Fa & Sun, Fubao & Wang, Xunming, 2023. "Impact of turbine technology on wind energy potential and CO2 emission reduction under different wind resource conditions in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 348(C).
    6. Franke, Katja & Garcia, Joshua Fragoso & Kleinschmitt, Christoph & Sensfuß, Frank, 2024. "Assessing worldwide future potentials of renewable electricity generation: Installable capacity, full load hours and costs," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    7. Xu, Bin, 2023. "Exploring the sustainable growth pathway of wind power in China: Using the semiparametric regression model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).

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