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Investigation of the distribution of bovine manure-based biomethane potential using an artificial neural network in Turkey to 2030

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  • Şenol, Halil
  • Ali Dereli̇, Mehmet
  • Özbilgin, Ferdi

Abstract

Biomethane production by anaerobic digestion has an important role in disposal of waste and renewable energy recovery. By conducting the appropriate experimental analysis to determine Turkey's bovine manure-based biomethane potential (BMBP), this study presents a valuation of the spatial distribution of the biomethane potential by year and province, including forecasting for such to 2030. In this context, the BMBP for each year between 2002 and 2019 was determined for the total installed power potential (TIPP) and biomethane potential per capita. The BMBPs for each province for the last seven years (2013–2019) in Turkey were illustrated by using geographical information system software. As of 2019, the biomethane-based TIPP of 17.87 million bovine manures was 1389 MW, which corresponded to approximately 1.53% of the total installed power. To express this in different units, the total BMBP for the country was 1.757 billion m3 in 2002, but by comparison reached 3.163 billion m3 in 2019. In addition, an artificial neural network (ANN) model with a number of independent variables gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, GDP agricultural, gross national product, human and bovine population was developed to forecast the BMBP to 2030. It was determined that the ANN-forecasted biomethane potential in 2030 will increase by approximately 50% more than the biomethane potential in 2019. Thus, this study will be an important resource in comparing the past and future values of BMBP in developing countries such as Turkey, estimating them with ANN and predicting renewable energy gain and animal manure disposal for countries.

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  • Şenol, Halil & Ali Dereli̇, Mehmet & Özbilgin, Ferdi, 2021. "Investigation of the distribution of bovine manure-based biomethane potential using an artificial neural network in Turkey to 2030," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:149:y:2021:i:c:s1364032121006249
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2021.111338
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    2. Şenol, Halil & Çolak, Emre & Oda, Volkan, 2024. "Forecasting of biogas potential using artificial neural networks and time series models for Türkiye to 2035," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).

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