IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/rensus/v149y2021ics1364032121006249.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Investigation of the distribution of bovine manure-based biomethane potential using an artificial neural network in Turkey to 2030

Author

Listed:
  • Şenol, Halil
  • Ali Dereli̇, Mehmet
  • Özbilgin, Ferdi

Abstract

Biomethane production by anaerobic digestion has an important role in disposal of waste and renewable energy recovery. By conducting the appropriate experimental analysis to determine Turkey's bovine manure-based biomethane potential (BMBP), this study presents a valuation of the spatial distribution of the biomethane potential by year and province, including forecasting for such to 2030. In this context, the BMBP for each year between 2002 and 2019 was determined for the total installed power potential (TIPP) and biomethane potential per capita. The BMBPs for each province for the last seven years (2013–2019) in Turkey were illustrated by using geographical information system software. As of 2019, the biomethane-based TIPP of 17.87 million bovine manures was 1389 MW, which corresponded to approximately 1.53% of the total installed power. To express this in different units, the total BMBP for the country was 1.757 billion m3 in 2002, but by comparison reached 3.163 billion m3 in 2019. In addition, an artificial neural network (ANN) model with a number of independent variables gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, GDP agricultural, gross national product, human and bovine population was developed to forecast the BMBP to 2030. It was determined that the ANN-forecasted biomethane potential in 2030 will increase by approximately 50% more than the biomethane potential in 2019. Thus, this study will be an important resource in comparing the past and future values of BMBP in developing countries such as Turkey, estimating them with ANN and predicting renewable energy gain and animal manure disposal for countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Şenol, Halil & Ali Dereli̇, Mehmet & Özbilgin, Ferdi, 2021. "Investigation of the distribution of bovine manure-based biomethane potential using an artificial neural network in Turkey to 2030," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:149:y:2021:i:c:s1364032121006249
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2021.111338
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032121006249
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.rser.2021.111338?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lauer, Markus & Hansen, Jason K. & Lamers, Patrick & Thrän, Daniela, 2018. "Making money from waste: The economic viability of producing biogas and biomethane in the Idaho dairy industry," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 621-636.
    2. Jain, Siddharth & Jain, Shivani & Wolf, Ingo Tim & Lee, Jonathan & Tong, Yen Wah, 2015. "A comprehensive review on operating parameters and different pretreatment methodologies for anaerobic digestion of municipal solid waste," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 142-154.
    3. Rodrigues, Eugénio & Gomes, Álvaro & Gaspar, Adélio Rodrigues & Henggeler Antunes, Carlos, 2018. "Estimation of renewable energy and built environment-related variables using neural networks – A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 959-988.
    4. Afazeli, Hadi & Jafari, Ali & Rafiee, Shahin & Nosrati, Mohsen, 2014. "An investigation of biogas production potential from livestock and slaughterhouse wastes," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 380-386.
    5. Melikoglu, Mehmet, 2017. "Vision 2023: Status quo and future of biomass and coal for sustainable energy generation in Turkey," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 800-808.
    6. Maghanaki, M. Mohammadi & Ghobadian, B. & Najafi, G. & Galogah, R. Janzadeh, 2013. "Potential of biogas production in Iran," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 702-714.
    7. Geem, Zong Woo, 2011. "Transport energy demand modeling of South Korea using artificial neural network," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(8), pages 4644-4650, August.
    8. Melikoglu, Mehmet, 2016. "The role of renewables and nuclear energy in Turkey׳s Vision 2023 energy targets: Economic and technical scrutiny," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1-12.
    9. Zhang, Guoqiang & Eddy Patuwo, B. & Y. Hu, Michael, 1998. "Forecasting with artificial neural networks:: The state of the art," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 35-62, March.
    10. Rios, Mario & Kaltschmitt, Martin, 2016. "Electricity generation potential from biogas produced from organic waste in Mexico," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 384-395.
    11. Çapik, Mehmet & Yılmaz, Ali Osman & Çavuşoğlu, İbrahim, 2012. "Present situation and potential role of renewable energy in Turkey," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-13.
    12. Zareei, Samira, 2018. "Evaluation of biogas potential from livestock manures and rural wastes using GIS in Iran," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 351-356.
    13. Alfa, M.I. & Adie, D.B. & Igboro, S.B. & Oranusi, U.S. & Dahunsi, S.O. & Akali, D.M., 2014. "Assessment of biofertilizer quality and health implications of anaerobic digestion effluent of cow dung and chicken droppings," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 681-686.
    14. Franco, Camilo & Bojesen, Mikkel & Hougaard, Jens Leth & Nielsen, Kurt, 2015. "A fuzzy approach to a multiple criteria and Geographical Information System for decision support on suitable locations for biogas plants," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 304-315.
    15. Yusri, I.M. & Abdul Majeed, A.P.P. & Mamat, R. & Ghazali, M.F. & Awad, Omar I. & Azmi, W.H., 2018. "A review on the application of response surface method and artificial neural network in engine performance and exhaust emissions characteristics in alternative fuel," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 665-686.
    16. Sözen, Adnan & Arcaklioglu, Erol & Özalp, Mehmet & Kanit, E. Galip, 2004. "Use of artificial neural networks for mapping of solar potential in Turkey," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 273-286, March.
    17. Bilen, K. & Ozyurt, O. & BakIrcI, K. & KarslI, S. & Erdogan, S. & YIlmaz, M. & ComaklI, O., 2008. "Energy production, consumption, and environmental pollution for sustainable development: A case study in Turkey," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 12(6), pages 1529-1561, August.
    18. Unknown, 2016. "Energy for Sustainable Development," Conference Proceedings 253270, Guru Arjan Dev Institute of Development Studies (IDSAsr).
    19. Selvaggi, Roberta & Pappalardo, Gioacchino & Chinnici, Gaetano & Fabbri, Claudio I., 2018. "Assessing land efficiency of biomethane industry: A case study of Sicily," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 689-695.
    20. Monteiro, Eliseu & Mantha, Vishveshwar & Rouboa, Abel, 2011. "Prospective application of farm cattle manure for bioenergy production in Portugal," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 627-631.
    21. Kalogirou, Soteris A., 2001. "Artificial neural networks in renewable energy systems applications: a review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 373-401, December.
    22. Ozturk, Murat & Yuksel, Yunus Emre, 2016. "Energy structure of Turkey for sustainable development," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1259-1272.
    23. Andrea Baccioli & Lorenzo Ferrari & Romain Guiller & Oumayma Yousfi & Francesco Vizza & Umberto Desideri, 2019. "Feasibility Analysis of Bio-Methane Production in a Biogas Plant: A Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-16, February.
    24. Abdeshahian, Peyman & Lim, Jeng Shiun & Ho, Wai Shin & Hashim, Haslenda & Lee, Chew Tin, 2016. "Potential of biogas production from farm animal waste in Malaysia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 714-723.
    25. Bilgen, Selçuk & Keleş, Sedat & Sarıkaya, İkbal & Kaygusuz, Kamil, 2015. "A perspective for potential and technology of bioenergy in Turkey: Present case and future view," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 228-239.
    26. Farzaneh-Gord, Mahmood & Mohseni-Gharyehsafa, Behnam & Arabkoohsar, Ahmad & Ahmadi, Mohammad Hossein & Sheremet, Mikhail A., 2020. "Precise prediction of biogas thermodynamic properties by using ANN algorithm," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(P1), pages 179-191.
    27. Moreda, Iván López, 2016. "The potential of biogas production in Uruguay," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 1580-1591.
    28. Mao, Chunlan & Feng, Yongzhong & Wang, Xiaojiao & Ren, Guangxin, 2015. "Review on research achievements of biogas from anaerobic digestion," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 540-555.
    29. Melikoglu, Mehmet, 2013. "Vision 2023: Forecasting Turkey's natural gas demand between 2013 and 2030," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 393-400.
    30. Surendra, K.C. & Takara, Devin & Hashimoto, Andrew G. & Khanal, Samir Kumar, 2014. "Biogas as a sustainable energy source for developing countries: Opportunities and challenges," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 846-859.
    31. Scarlat, Nicolae & Fahl, Fernando & Dallemand, Jean-François & Monforti, Fabio & Motola, Vicenzo, 2018. "A spatial analysis of biogas potential from manure in Europe," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 915-930.
    32. Yadav, Amit Kumar & Malik, Hasmat & Chandel, S.S., 2014. "Selection of most relevant input parameters using WEKA for artificial neural network based solar radiation prediction models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 509-519.
    33. Melikoglu, Mehmet, 2017. "Pumped hydroelectric energy storage: Analysing global development and assessing potential applications in Turkey based on Vision 2023 hydroelectricity wind and solar energy targets," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 146-153.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Agnieszka Wawrzyniak & Andrzej Przybylak & Piotr Boniecki & Agnieszka Sujak & Maciej Zaborowicz, 2023. "Neural Modelling in the Study of the Relationship between Herd Structure, Amount of Manure and Slurry Produced, and Location of Herds in Poland," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-13, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ozcan, Mustafa, 2018. "The role of renewables in increasing Turkey's self-sufficiency in electrical energy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 2629-2639.
    2. Zareei, Samira, 2018. "Evaluation of biogas potential from livestock manures and rural wastes using GIS in Iran," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 351-356.
    3. Loganath, Radhakrishnan & Senophiyah-Mary, J., 2020. "Critical review on the necessity of bioelectricity generation from slaughterhouse industry waste and wastewater using different anaerobic digestion reactors," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    4. Khalil, Munawar & Berawi, Mohammed Ali & Heryanto, Rudi & Rizalie, Akhmad, 2019. "Waste to energy technology: The potential of sustainable biogas production from animal waste in Indonesia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 323-331.
    5. Safieddin Ardebili, Seyed Mohammad, 2020. "Green electricity generation potential from biogas produced by anaerobic digestion of farm animal waste and agriculture residues in Iran," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 29-37.
    6. Ozturk, Munir & Saba, Naheed & Altay, Volkan & Iqbal, Rizwan & Hakeem, Khalid Rehman & Jawaid, Mohammad & Ibrahim, Faridah Hanum, 2017. "Biomass and bioenergy: An overview of the development potential in Turkey and Malaysia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1285-1302.
    7. Morteza Aien & Omid Mahdavi, 2020. "On the Way of Policy Making to Reduce the Reliance of Fossil Fuels: Case Study of Iran," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-28, December.
    8. Islam, KM Nazmul & Sarker, Tapan & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Atri, Anashuwa Chowdhury & Alam, Mohammad Shafiul, 2021. "Renewable energy generation from livestock waste for a sustainable circular economy in Bangladesh," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    9. Rajaeifar, Mohammad Ali & Ghanavati, Hossein & Dashti, Behrouz B. & Heijungs, Reinout & Aghbashlo, Mortaza & Tabatabaei, Meisam, 2017. "Electricity generation and GHG emission reduction potentials through different municipal solid waste management technologies: A comparative review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 414-439.
    10. Susanne Theuerl & Christiane Herrmann & Monika Heiermann & Philipp Grundmann & Niels Landwehr & Ulrich Kreidenweis & Annette Prochnow, 2019. "The Future Agricultural Biogas Plant in Germany: A Vision," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-32, January.
    11. Melikoglu, Mehmet, 2017. "Vision 2023: Status quo and future of biomass and coal for sustainable energy generation in Turkey," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 800-808.
    12. Shane, Agabu & Gheewala, Shabbir H. & Phiri, Seveliano, 2017. "Rural domestic biogas supply model for Zambia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 683-697.
    13. Wenzhi Xu & Yongqun Zhu & Xie Wang & Lei Ji & Hong Wang & Li Yao & Chaowen Lin, 2021. "The Effect of Biogas Slurry Application on Biomass Production and Forage Quality of Lolium Multiflorum," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-13, March.
    14. Shirzad, Mohammad & Kazemi Shariat Panahi, Hamed & Dashti, Behrouz B. & Rajaeifar, Mohammad Ali & Aghbashlo, Mortaza & Tabatabaei, Meisam, 2019. "A comprehensive review on electricity generation and GHG emission reduction potentials through anaerobic digestion of agricultural and livestock/slaughterhouse wastes in Iran," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 571-594.
    15. Grzegorz Ślusarz & Barbara Gołębiewska & Marek Cierpiał-Wolan & Jarosław Gołębiewski & Dariusz Twaróg & Sebastian Wójcik, 2021. "Regional Diversification of Potential, Production and Efficiency of Use of Biogas and Biomass in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-20, January.
    16. Soha, Tamás & Papp, Luca & Csontos, Csaba & Munkácsy, Béla, 2021. "The importance of high crop residue demand on biogas plant site selection, scaling and feedstock allocation – A regional scale concept in a Hungarian study area," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    17. Fernandes, Daniel J. & Ferreira, Ana F. & Fernandes, Edgar C., 2023. "Biogas and biomethane production potential via anaerobic digestion of manure: A case study of Portugal," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    18. Raheem, Abdur & Hassan, Mohammad Yusri & Shakoor, Rabia, 2016. "Bioenergy from anaerobic digestion in Pakistan: Potential, development and prospects," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 264-275.
    19. Debnath, Kumar Biswajit & Mourshed, Monjur, 2018. "Forecasting methods in energy planning models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 297-325.
    20. Singh, Deval & Tembhare, Mamta & Machhirake, Nitesh & Kumar, Sunil, 2023. "Biogas generation potential of discarded food waste residue from ultra-processing activities at food manufacturing and packaging industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:149:y:2021:i:c:s1364032121006249. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.