Stochastic economic and environmental footprints of biodiesel production from Jatropha curcas Linnaeus in the different federal states of Nepal

This study presents a set of essential parameters specific to geography, climate, soil conditions, and irrigation, which can be used to classify commercially feasible Jatropha farming land, globally. The results are demonstrated considering Nepal as a representative case and including system-level economic feasibility and environmental sustainability analyses for each of the Federal States of Nepal. Probabilistic results describe a distribution of the minimum selling price and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of Jatropha-based biodiesel, respectively, with an average of $1.35/L and 46.51 gCO2e/MJ-biodiesel, and the 95% likelihood to be less than $4.57/L and 127.67 gCO2e/MJ-biodiesel. Considering direct, and then both direct and indirect land use changes increase the GHG emissions relative to the baseline by 3.5 and 8 times, respectively. Jatropha oil yield, biodiesel yield and recovery rates, and Jatropha seed production rates were found to be the most influential factors on the selling price of biodiesel and associated GHG emissions. The results imply that at the Jatropha oil yield of 50 wt%, a Jatropha seed yield of at least 3.9 t/ha and 5 t/ha are required to achieve a market-competitive biodiesel selling price of $1/L, and GHG emissions including direct land use change effects below the petroleum baseline of 87.2 gCO2e/MJ. Avoiding the disturbance of forest lands in favor of Jatropha afforestation is one of the identified strategies to minimize the impacts from land use changes. These methods demonstrate a pathway towards addressing current challenges and developing an environmentally and commercially viable Jatropha-based biodiesel industry in many countries including Nepal.