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Stochastic modelling of daily global solar radiation measured in Marrakesh, Morocco

Author

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  • Zeroual, A.
  • Ankrim, M.
  • Wilkinson, A.J.

Abstract

Two stochastic models are presented of the daily global solar radiation obtained from three years of data measured on a horizontal surface in Marrakesh, Morocco (latitude 31°37′N, longitude 08°02′W, elevation 463 m). The development of these models is based on the removal of the annual periodicity and seasonal variation of solar radiation using two types of normalisation. The first model is developed using a classical decomposition of the daily radiation as the sum of two components: a trend component and a stochastic component. This model is most useful for long simulated sequences. The second model is developed using a non-dimensional variable, the clearness index, which is modelled as a stochastic process after a preliminary transformation leading to a stationary time series. Both models have satisfactorily passed validation tests for forecasting and simulation of daily global solar radiation data.

Suggested Citation

  • Zeroual, A. & Ankrim, M. & Wilkinson, A.J., 1995. "Stochastic modelling of daily global solar radiation measured in Marrakesh, Morocco," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 6(7), pages 787-793.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:6:y:1995:i:7:p:787-793
    DOI: 10.1016/0960-1481(94)00093-L
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    Cited by:

    1. Koussa, Mustapha & Saheb-Koussa, Djohra & Hadji, Seddik, 2017. "Experimental investigation of simple solar radiation spectral model performances under a Mediterranean Algerian's climate," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 751-773.
    2. Joan Pau Sierra & Ricard Castrillo & Marc Mestres & César Mösso & Piero Lionello & Luigi Marzo, 2020. "Impact of Climate Change on Wave Energy Resource in the Mediterranean Coast of Morocco," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, June.
    3. Li, Huashan & Ma, Weibin & Lian, Yongwang & Wang, Xianlong, 2010. "Estimating daily global solar radiation by day of year in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(10), pages 3011-3017, October.
    4. Sierra, J.P. & Martín, C. & Mösso, C. & Mestres, M. & Jebbad, R., 2016. "Wave energy potential along the Atlantic coast of Morocco," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA), pages 20-32.
    5. Hassan, Jamal, 2014. "ARIMA and regression models for prediction of daily and monthly clearness index," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 421-427.
    6. Anton Vernet & Alexandre Fabregat, 2023. "Evaluation of Empirical Daily Solar Radiation Models for the Northeast Coast of the Iberian Peninsula," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-18, March.
    7. Safi, S. & Zeroual, A. & Hassani, M., 2002. "Prediction of global daily solar radiation using higher order statistics," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 647-666.
    8. Bulut, Hüsamettin & Büyükalaca, Orhan, 2007. "Simple model for the generation of daily global solar-radiation data in Turkey," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 84(5), pages 477-491, May.
    9. Bilbao, J. & Miguel, A., 2013. "Contribution to the study of UV-B solar radiation in Central Spain," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 79-85.
    10. Santos, J.M. & Pinazo, J.M. & Cañada, J., 2003. "Methodology for generating daily clearness index index values Kt starting from the monthly average daily value K̄t. Determining the daily sequence using stochastic models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 1523-1544.

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