IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v68y2014icp421-427.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

ARIMA and regression models for prediction of daily and monthly clearness index

Author

Listed:
  • Hassan, Jamal

Abstract

Hourly and daily measurements of total and diffuse solar radiation and sunshine duration are analyzed. Three-year measurements of the available meteorological data in Mosul (latitude 36° 19′ N, longitude 43° 09′ E and 223 m above mean sea level) are used in this study. The present work involves two parts; in the first one, monthly mean daily and hourly of total and diffuse solar radiation are analyzed. The results show that the annual mean of the daily total and diffuse solar radiation is 5.11 and 1.6 kWh/m2 respectively. 57% of the days of the year are clear, while only 11.5% of the days are cloudy. Several empirical equations for estimating monthly mean daily global and diffuse solar radiation have been developed and compared with other available models. Ratio of average hourly to daily total solar radiation, for each month of the year is studied and compared with the theoretical results. In the second part, time-series model building using Box–Jenkins procedure to the daily clearness index is performed. The ARIMA(2,1,1) is developed for predication of daily clearness index.

Suggested Citation

  • Hassan, Jamal, 2014. "ARIMA and regression models for prediction of daily and monthly clearness index," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 421-427.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:68:y:2014:i:c:p:421-427
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2014.02.016
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148114000962
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2014.02.016?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Islam, M.D. & Kubo, I. & Ohadi, M. & Alili, A.A., 2009. "Measurement of solar energy radiation in Abu Dhabi, UAE," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(4), pages 511-515, April.
    2. Islam, M.D. & Alili, A.A. & Kubo, I. & Ohadi, M., 2010. "Measurement of solar-energy (direct beam radiation) in Abu Dhabi, UAE," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 515-519.
    3. Sulaiman, M.Yusof & Hlaing oo, W.M. & Wahab, Mahdi Abd. & Sulaiman, Z.Abidin, 1997. "Analysis of residuals in daily solar radiation time series," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 97-105.
    4. Zeroual, A. & Ankrim, M. & Wilkinson, A.J., 1995. "Stochastic modelling of daily global solar radiation measured in Marrakesh, Morocco," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 6(7), pages 787-793.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Seul-Gi Kim & Jae-Yoon Jung & Min Kyu Sim, 2019. "A Two-Step Approach to Solar Power Generation Prediction Based on Weather Data Using Machine Learning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-16, March.
    2. Martins, Guilherme Santos & Giesbrecht, Mateus, 2023. "Hybrid approaches based on Singular Spectrum Analysis and k- Nearest Neighbors for clearness index forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(P1).
    3. Rivero, M. & Orozco, S. & Sellschopp, F.S. & Loera-Palomo, R., 2017. "A new methodology to extend the validity of the Hargreaves-Samani model to estimate global solar radiation in different climates: Case study Mexico," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(PB), pages 1340-1352.
    4. Ahmed, Eihab E.E. & Demirci, Alpaslan & Tercan, Said Mirza, 2023. "Optimal sizing and techno-enviro-economic feasibility assessment of solar tracker-based hybrid energy systems for rural electrification in Sudan," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 1057-1070.
    5. Ntumba Marc-Alain Mutombo & Bubele Papy Numbi, 2022. "The Development of ARIMA Models for the Clear Sky Beam and Diffuse Optical Depths for HVAC Systems Design Using RTSM: A Case Study of the Umlazi Township Area, South Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-16, March.
    6. Martins, Guilherme Santos & Giesbrecht, Mateus, 2021. "Clearness index forecasting: A comparative study between a stochastic realization method and a machine learning algorithm," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 787-805.
    7. Mohammad Mahdi Forootan & Iman Larki & Rahim Zahedi & Abolfazl Ahmadi, 2022. "Machine Learning and Deep Learning in Energy Systems: A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-49, April.
    8. Dai, Yeming & Yu, Weijie & Leng, Mingming, 2024. "A hybrid ensemble optimized BiGRU method for short-term photovoltaic generation forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    9. Brahim Belmahdi & Mohamed Louzazni & Mousa Marzband & Abdelmajid El Bouardi, 2023. "Global Solar Radiation Forecasting Based on Hybrid Model with Combinations of Meteorological Parameters: Morocco Case Study," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-24, January.
    10. Heng, Jiani & Wang, Jianzhou & Xiao, Liye & Lu, Haiyan, 2017. "Research and application of a combined model based on frequent pattern growth algorithm and multi-objective optimization for solar radiation forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 845-866.
    11. Gairaa, Kacem & Khellaf, Abdallah & Messlem, Youcef & Chellali, Farouk, 2016. "Estimation of the daily global solar radiation based on Box–Jenkins and ANN models: A combined approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 238-249.
    12. Hussain, Sajid & Al-Alili, Ali, 2016. "A new approach for model validation in solar radiation using wavelet, phase and frequency coherence analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 639-649.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mokri, Alaeddine & Aal Ali, Mona & Emziane, Mahieddine, 2013. "Solar energy in the United Arab Emirates: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 340-375.
    2. Juaidi, Adel & Montoya, Francisco G. & Gázquez, Jose A. & Manzano-Agugliaro, Francisco, 2016. "An overview of energy balance compared to sustainable energy in United Arab Emirates," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 1195-1209.
    3. Gutiérrez-Trashorras, Antonio J. & Villicaña-Ortiz, Eunice & Álvarez-Álvarez, Eduardo & González-Caballín, Juan M. & Xiberta-Bernat, Jorge & Suarez-López, María J., 2018. "Attenuation processes of solar radiation. Application to the quantification of direct and diffuse solar irradiances on horizontal surfaces in Mexico by means of an overall atmospheric transmittance," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 93-106.
    4. Alnaser, W.E. & Alnaser, N.W., 2011. "The status of renewable energy in the GCC countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 3074-3098, August.
    5. Zawilska, E. & Brooks, M.J., 2011. "An assessment of the solar resource for Durban, South Africa," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 3433-3438.
    6. Eltbaakh, Yousef A. & Ruslan, M.H. & Alghoul, M.A. & Othman, M.Y. & Sopian, K. & Fadhel, M.I., 2011. "Measurement of total and spectral solar irradiance: Overview of existing research," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 1403-1426, April.
    7. Jafarkazemi, Farzad & Saadabadi, S. Ali, 2013. "Optimum tilt angle and orientation of solar surfaces in Abu Dhabi, UAE," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 44-49.
    8. Hernández-Escobedo, Q. & Rodríguez-García, E. & Saldaña-Flores, R. & Fernández-García, A. & Manzano-Agugliaro, F., 2015. "Solar energy resource assessment in Mexican states along the Gulf of Mexico," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 216-238.
    9. Sierra, J.P. & Martín, C. & Mösso, C. & Mestres, M. & Jebbad, R., 2016. "Wave energy potential along the Atlantic coast of Morocco," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA), pages 20-32.
    10. Zhou, Zhigao & Wang, Lunche & Lin, Aiwen & Zhang, Ming & Niu, Zigeng, 2018. "Innovative trend analysis of solar radiation in China during 1962–2015," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 675-689.
    11. Mateos, D. & Antón, M. & Valenzuela, A. & Cazorla, A. & Olmo, F.J. & Alados-Arboledas, L., 2014. "Efficiency of clouds on shortwave radiation using experimental data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1216-1219.
    12. Bachour, D. & Perez-Astudillo, D., 2014. "Ground measurements of Global Horizontal Irradiation in Doha, Qatar," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 32-36.
    13. Ntumba Marc-Alain Mutombo & Bubele Papy Numbi, 2022. "The Development of ARIMA Models for the Clear Sky Beam and Diffuse Optical Depths for HVAC Systems Design Using RTSM: A Case Study of the Umlazi Township Area, South Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-16, March.
    14. Bulut, Hüsamettin & Büyükalaca, Orhan, 2007. "Simple model for the generation of daily global solar-radiation data in Turkey," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 84(5), pages 477-491, May.
    15. Bilbao, J. & Miguel, A., 2013. "Contribution to the study of UV-B solar radiation in Central Spain," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 79-85.
    16. Edalati, Saeed & Ameri, Mehran & Iranmanesh, Masoud & Sadeghi, Zeinolabedin, 2017. "Solar photovoltaic power plants in five top oil-producing countries in Middle East: A case study in Iran," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1271-1280.
    17. Koussa, Mustapha & Saheb-Koussa, Djohra & Hadji, Seddik, 2017. "Experimental investigation of simple solar radiation spectral model performances under a Mediterranean Algerian's climate," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 751-773.
    18. Barbón, A. & Ayuso, P. Fortuny & Bayón, L. & Silva, C.A., 2021. "A comparative study between racking systems for photovoltaic power systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 424-437.
    19. Wang, Lunche & Kisi, Ozgur & Zounemat-Kermani, Mohammad & Salazar, Germán Ariel & Zhu, Zhongmin & Gong, Wei, 2016. "Solar radiation prediction using different techniques: model evaluation and comparison," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 384-397.
    20. Sharaf, Omar Z. & Orhan, Mehmet F., 2018. "Comparative thermodynamic analysis of densely-packed concentrated photovoltaic thermal (CPVT) solar collectors in thermally in-series and in-parallel receiver configurations," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 296-321.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:68:y:2014:i:c:p:421-427. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.