IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v52y2013icp118-127.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Short-term solar power prediction using a support vector machine

Author

Listed:
  • Zeng, Jianwu
  • Qiao, Wei

Abstract

This paper proposes a least-square (LS) support vector machine (SVM)-based model for short-term solar power prediction (SPP). The input of the model includes historical data of atmospheric transmissivity in a novel two-dimensional (2D) form and other meteorological variables, including sky cover, relative humidity, and wind speed. The output of the model is the predicted atmospheric transmissivity, which then is converted to solar power according to the latitude of the site and the time of the day. Computer simulations are carried out to validate the proposed model by using the data obtained from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). Results show that the proposed model not only significantly outperforms a reference autoregressive (AR) model but also achieves better results than a radial basis function neural network (RBFNN)-based model in terms of prediction accuracy. The superiority of using transmissivity over sigmoid functions for data normalization is testified. Simulation studies also show that the use of additional meteorological variables, especially sky cover, improves the accuracy of SPP.

Suggested Citation

  • Zeng, Jianwu & Qiao, Wei, 2013. "Short-term solar power prediction using a support vector machine," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 118-127.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:52:y:2013:i:c:p:118-127
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2012.10.009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148112006465
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2012.10.009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chen, Ji-Long & Liu, Hong-Bin & Wu, Wei & Xie, De-Ti, 2011. "Estimation of monthly solar radiation from measured temperatures using support vector machines – A case study," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 413-420.
    2. Mohandes, M.A. & Halawani, T.O. & Rehman, S. & Hussain, Ahmed A., 2004. "Support vector machines for wind speed prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 939-947.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paniagua-Tineo, A. & Salcedo-Sanz, S. & Casanova-Mateo, C. & Ortiz-García, E.G. & Cony, M.A. & Hernández-Martín, E., 2011. "Prediction of daily maximum temperature using a support vector regression algorithm," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 3054-3060.
    2. Wang, Jianzhou & Xiong, Shenghua, 2014. "A hybrid forecasting model based on outlier detection and fuzzy time series – A case study on Hainan wind farm of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 526-541.
    3. Flores, Juan J. & Graff, Mario & Rodriguez, Hector, 2012. "Evolutive design of ARMA and ANN models for time series forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 225-230.
    4. Hu, Jianming & Wang, Jianzhou & Zeng, Guowei, 2013. "A hybrid forecasting approach applied to wind speed time series," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 185-194.
    5. Xiao Liu & Xu Lai & Jin Zou, 2017. "A New MCP Method of Wind Speed Temporal Interpolation and Extrapolation Considering Wind Speed Mixed Uncertainty," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1, August.
    6. Maen Takruri & Maissa Farhat & Oscar Barambones & José Antonio Ramos-Hernanz & Mohammed Jawdat Turkieh & Mohammed Badawi & Hanin AlZoubi & Maswood Abdus Sakur, 2020. "Maximum Power Point Tracking of PV System Based on Machine Learning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-14, February.
    7. Ata, Rasit, 2015. "Artificial neural networks applications in wind energy systems: a review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 534-562.
    8. Santamaría-Bonfil, G. & Reyes-Ballesteros, A. & Gershenson, C., 2016. "Wind speed forecasting for wind farms: A method based on support vector regression," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 790-809.
    9. Zhang, Lifang & Wang, Jianzhou & Niu, Xinsong & Liu, Zhenkun, 2021. "Ensemble wind speed forecasting with multi-objective Archimedes optimization algorithm and sub-model selection," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    10. Neeraj Bokde & Andrés Feijóo & Daniel Villanueva & Kishore Kulat, 2018. "A Novel and Alternative Approach for Direct and Indirect Wind-Power Prediction Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-19, October.
    11. Chong, W.T. & Gwani, M. & Shamshirband, S. & Muzammil, W.K. & Tan, C.J. & Fazlizan, A. & Poh, S.C. & Petković, Dalibor & Wong, K.H., 2016. "Application of adaptive neuro-fuzzy methodology for performance investigation of a power-augmented vertical axis wind turbine," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 630-636.
    12. Li, Danny H.W. & Lou, Siwei, 2018. "Review of solar irradiance and daylight illuminance modeling and sky classification," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 445-453.
    13. Meenal, R. & Selvakumar, A. Immanuel, 2018. "Assessment of SVM, empirical and ANN based solar radiation prediction models with most influencing input parameters," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 324-343.
    14. Wei-Chiang Hong & Yucheng Dong & Chien-Yuan Lai & Li-Yueh Chen & Shih-Yung Wei, 2011. "SVR with Hybrid Chaotic Immune Algorithm for Seasonal Load Demand Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 4(6), pages 1-18, June.
    15. Ghimire, Sujan & Deo, Ravinesh C. & Raj, Nawin & Mi, Jianchun, 2019. "Wavelet-based 3-phase hybrid SVR model trained with satellite-derived predictors, particle swarm optimization and maximum overlap discrete wavelet transform for solar radiation prediction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1-1.
    16. Xiao, Yulong & Zou, Chongzhe & Chi, Hetian & Fang, Rengcun, 2023. "Boosted GRU model for short-term forecasting of wind power with feature-weighted principal component analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    17. Tang, Zhenhao & Zhao, Gengnan & Ouyang, Tinghui, 2021. "Two-phase deep learning model for short-term wind direction forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1005-1016.
    18. Jesús Ferrero Bermejo & Juan Francisco Gómez Fernández & Rafael Pino & Adolfo Crespo Márquez & Antonio Jesús Guillén López, 2019. "Review and Comparison of Intelligent Optimization Modelling Techniques for Energy Forecasting and Condition-Based Maintenance in PV Plants," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-18, October.
    19. Wang, Jianzhou & Qin, Shanshan & Zhou, Qingping & Jiang, Haiyan, 2015. "Medium-term wind speeds forecasting utilizing hybrid models for three different sites in Xinjiang, China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 91-101.
    20. Ramedani, Zeynab & Omid, Mahmoud & Keyhani, Alireza & Shamshirband, Shahaboddin & Khoshnevisan, Benyamin, 2014. "Potential of radial basis function based support vector regression for global solar radiation prediction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1005-1011.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:52:y:2013:i:c:p:118-127. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.