IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v50y2013icp236-243.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predicting the energy output of wind farms based on weather data: Important variables and their correlation

Author

Listed:
  • Vladislavleva, Ekaterina
  • Friedrich, Tobias
  • Neumann, Frank
  • Wagner, Markus

Abstract

Wind energy plays an increasing role in the supply of energy world wide. The energy output of a wind farm is highly dependent on the weather conditions present at its site. If the output can be predicted more accurately, energy suppliers can coordinate the collaborative production of different energy sources more efficiently to avoid costly overproduction. In this paper, we take a computer science perspective on energy prediction based on weather data and analyze the important parameters as well as their correlation on the energy output. To deal with the interaction of the different parameters, we use symbolic regression based on the genetic programming tool DataModeler. Our studies are carried out on publicly available weather and energy data for a wind farm in Australia. We report on the correlation of the different variables for the energy output. The model obtained for energy prediction gives a very reliable prediction of the energy output for newly supplied weather data.

Suggested Citation

  • Vladislavleva, Ekaterina & Friedrich, Tobias & Neumann, Frank & Wagner, Markus, 2013. "Predicting the energy output of wind farms based on weather data: Important variables and their correlation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 236-243.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:50:y:2013:i:c:p:236-243
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2012.06.036
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148112003874
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2012.06.036?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Foley, Aoife M. & Leahy, Paul G. & Marvuglia, Antonino & McKeogh, Eamon J., 2012. "Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 1-8.
    2. Jursa, René & Rohrig, Kurt, 2008. "Short-term wind power forecasting using evolutionary algorithms for the automated specification of artificial intelligence models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 694-709.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wekesa, David Wafula & Wang, Cong & Wei, Yingjie, 2016. "Empirical and numerical analysis of small wind turbine aerodynamic performance at a plateau terrain in Kenya," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 377-385.
    2. Yang, Guangfei & Sun, Tao & Wang, Jianliang & Li, Xianneng, 2015. "Modeling the nexus between carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 104-117.
    3. Amin, Amin & Mourshed, Monjur, 2024. "Weather and climate data for energy applications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    4. Bilal, Boudy & Adjallah, Kondo Hloindo & Sava, Alexandre & Yetilmezsoy, Kaan & Ouassaid, Mohammed, 2023. "Wind turbine output power prediction and optimization based on a novel adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system with the moving window," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    5. Coelho, Vitor N. & Coelho, Igor M. & Coelho, Bruno N. & Reis, Agnaldo J.R. & Enayatifar, Rasul & Souza, Marcone J.F. & Guimarães, Frederico G., 2016. "A self-adaptive evolutionary fuzzy model for load forecasting problems on smart grid environment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 567-584.
    6. Wasilewski, J. & Baczynski, D., 2017. "Short-term electric energy production forecasting at wind power plants in pareto-optimality context," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 177-187.
    7. Shargh, S. & Khorshid ghazani, B. & Mohammadi-ivatloo, B. & Seyedi, H. & Abapour, M., 2016. "Probabilistic multi-objective optimal power flow considering correlated wind power and load uncertainties," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 10-21.
    8. Maria Grazia De Giorgi & Stefano Campilongo & Antonio Ficarella & Paolo Maria Congedo, 2014. "Comparison Between Wind Power Prediction Models Based on Wavelet Decomposition with Least-Squares Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN)," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(8), pages 1-22, August.
    9. Graff, Mario & Peña, Rafael & Medina, Aurelio & Escalante, Hugo Jair, 2014. "Wind speed forecasting using a portfolio of forecasters," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 550-559.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sen Guo & Haoran Zhao & Huiru Zhao, 2017. "A New Hybrid Wind Power Forecaster Using the Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition Method and a Relevance Vector Machine Optimized by the Ant Lion Optimizer," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-20, July.
    2. Wasilewski, J. & Baczynski, D., 2017. "Short-term electric energy production forecasting at wind power plants in pareto-optimality context," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 177-187.
    3. Kim, Deockho & Hur, Jin, 2018. "Short-term probabilistic forecasting of wind energy resources using the enhanced ensemble method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 211-226.
    4. Jha, Sunil Kr. & Bilalovic, Jasmin & Jha, Anju & Patel, Nilesh & Zhang, Han, 2017. "Renewable energy: Present research and future scope of Artificial Intelligence," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 297-317.
    5. Sameer Al-Dahidi & Piero Baraldi & Enrico Zio & Lorenzo Montelatici, 2021. "Bootstrapped Ensemble of Artificial Neural Networks Technique for Quantifying Uncertainty in Prediction of Wind Energy Production," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, June.
    6. Yu, Jie & Chen, Kuilin & Mori, Junichi & Rashid, Mudassir M., 2013. "A Gaussian mixture copula model based localized Gaussian process regression approach for long-term wind speed prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 673-686.
    7. Bo Wang & Tiancheng Wang & Mao Yang & Chao Han & Dawei Huang & Dake Gu, 2023. "Ultra-Short-Term Prediction Method of Wind Power for Massive Wind Power Clusters Based on Feature Mining of Spatiotemporal Correlation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-16, March.
    8. Mohammad Abdul Baseer & Anas Almunif & Ibrahim Alsaduni & Nazia Tazeen, 2023. "Electrical Power Generation Forecasting from Renewable Energy Systems Using Artificial Intelligence Techniques," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-21, September.
    9. Liu, Da & Niu, Dongxiao & Wang, Hui & Fan, Leilei, 2014. "Short-term wind speed forecasting using wavelet transform and support vector machines optimized by genetic algorithm," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 592-597.
    10. Sharifzadeh, Mahdi & Sikinioti-Lock, Alexandra & Shah, Nilay, 2019. "Machine-learning methods for integrated renewable power generation: A comparative study of artificial neural networks, support vector regression, and Gaussian Process Regression," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 513-538.
    11. Zhongrong Zhang & Yiliao Song & Feng Liu & Jinpeng Liu, 2016. "Daily Average Wind Power Interval Forecasts Based on an Optimal Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System and Singular Spectrum Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-30, January.
    12. Naik, Jyotirmayee & Dash, Sujit & Dash, P.K. & Bisoi, Ranjeeta, 2018. "Short term wind power forecasting using hybrid variational mode decomposition and multi-kernel regularized pseudo inverse neural network," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 180-212.
    13. Tascikaraoglu, A. & Uzunoglu, M., 2014. "A review of combined approaches for prediction of short-term wind speed and power," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 243-254.
    14. Osório, G.J. & Matias, J.C.O. & Catalão, J.P.S., 2015. "Short-term wind power forecasting using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system combined with evolutionary particle swarm optimization, wavelet transform and mutual information," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 301-307.
    15. José Carlos Palomares-Salas & Agustín Agüera-Pérez & Juan José González de la Rosa & José María Sierra-Fernández & Antonio Moreno-Muñoz, 2013. "Exogenous Measurements from Basic Meteorological Stations for Wind Speed Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 6(11), pages 1-19, November.
    16. Kubik, M.L. & Coker, P.J. & Hunt, C., 2012. "The role of conventional generation in managing variability," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 253-261.
    17. Pedro, Hugo T.C. & Lim, Edwin & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2018. "A database infrastructure to implement real-time solar and wind power generation intra-hour forecasts," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 513-525.
    18. Flores, Juan J. & Graff, Mario & Rodriguez, Hector, 2012. "Evolutive design of ARMA and ANN models for time series forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 225-230.
    19. Yıldıran, Uğur & Kayahan, İsmail, 2018. "Risk-averse stochastic model predictive control-based real-time operation method for a wind energy generation system supported by a pumped hydro storage unit," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C), pages 631-643.
    20. Yang, Mao & Wang, Da & Xu, Chuanyu & Dai, Bozhi & Ma, Miaomiao & Su, Xin, 2023. "Power transfer characteristics in fluctuation partition algorithm for wind speed and its application to wind power forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 582-594.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:50:y:2013:i:c:p:236-243. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.